对布尔代数上的可商满射的注记

揭示了布尔代数上的可商满射与布尔代数上的一类保交保并的满射间的等价性,证明了布尔代数上的可商满射为一一映射。     

The effect of directionality on extreme wave design criteria

Sea state design criteria for offshore facilities are frequently provided by direction. For example, it is typical for return-period values of the significant wave height to be specified for each of eight 45° sectors in addition to the omni-directional case. However, it is important that these criteria be consistent so that the probability of exceedance of a given wave height from any direction derived from the directional values is the same as for the omni-directional value. As recently demonstrated by Forristall it is not sufficient simply to scale the directional values so that the value of the wave height from the most severe sector is the same as the omni-directional value.We develop an approach for establishing appropriate directional criteria and an associated omni-directional criterion for a specific location. The inherent directionality of sea states is used to develop a model for the directional dependence of distributions of storm maxima. The directional model is applied to the GOMOS data, and the distributional properties of the 100-year significant wave height are estimated and the implications for design discussed. An objective risk-cost approach is proposed for optimising directional criteria, while preserving overall reliability. Simulation studies are performed, using realistic extreme value assumptions, to quantify the uncertainties.     

Estimation of ship motions using closed-form expressions

A semi-analytical approach is used to derive frequency response functions for the wave-induced motions for monohull ships. The results are given as closed-form expressions and the required input information for the procedure is restricted to the main dimensions: length, breadth, draught, block coefficient and water plane area together with speed and heading. The formulas make it simple to obtain quick estimates of the wave-induced motions and accelerations in the conceptual design phase and to perform a sensitivity study of the variation with main dimensions and operational profile.     

Global scope and economics of illegal fishing

We present a conceptual model for the analysis of the costs and benefit aspects of the risk inherent in illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) activity. We then develop and present a map of IUU incidences as reported in the Fisheries Centre's Sea Around Us project IUU global database. This map shows that IUU activities are quite widespread geographically. We next present an analysis of the cost and benefit aspects of risks of IUU fishing. A key result of the study is that for the cases analyzed as a group; the expected benefits from IUU fishing far exceed the expected cost of being apprehended. For an assumed 1 in 5 chance of being apprehended, our calculations show that reported fines for the vessels apprehended will have to be increased by 24 times for the expected cost to be at least as much as the expected benefits.     

Assessment of rockfall hazard around Afyon Castle,Turkey

The Afyon Castle is a tourist destination and a historical site in the City of Afyon in Turkey. The Castle is located on a steep hill, with a height of 226 m. In close proximity to the Castle there are settlements. The hill consists of trachitic andesite. The rock contains columnar joints and flow layering. Owing to these discontinuities, blocks of varying sizes had fallen down. The settlement areas near the Castle are now in danger because of the rockfall risk. In this study, rockfall analysis was carried out along nine profiles of the hill. Fall-out distance, bounce height, kinetic energy and velocity of the rocks along each profile were investigated. The results of the analyses were evaluated, and the areas delineated as susceptible to rockfall risk are highlighted. Remedial measures including rock bolts and protective fences were suggested on the basis of the field observations and the rockfall risk evaluation.     

Risk degree of debris flow applying neural networks

A number of methods for prediction of debris flows have been studied. However, the successful prediction ratios of debris flows cannot always maintain a stable and reliable level. The objective of this study is to present a stable and reliable analytical model for risk degree predictions of debris flows. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model that was constructed by seven significant factors using back-propagation (BP) algorithm. These seven factors include (1) length of creek, (2) average slope, (3) effective watershed area, (4) shape coefficient, (5) median size of soil grain, (6) effective cumulative rainfall, and (7) effective rainfall intensity. A total of 171 potential cases of debris flows collected in eastern Taiwan were fed into the ANN model for training and testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reaching 99.12% demonstrates that the presented ANN model with seven significant factors can provide a highly stable and reliable result for the prediction of debris flows in hazard mitigation and guarding systems.     

Risk tolerance measure for decision-making in fuzzy analysis: a health risk assessment perspective

In risk assessment studies it is important to determine how uncertain and imprecise knowledge should be included into the simulation and assessment models. Thus, proper evaluation of uncertainties has become a major concern in environmental and health risk assessment studies. Previously, researchers have used probability theory, more commonly Monte Carlo analysis, to incorporate uncertainty analysis in health risk assessment studies. However, in conducting probabilistic health risk assessment, risk analyst often suffers from lack of data or the presence of imperfect or incomplete knowledge about the process modeled and also the process parameters. Fuzzy set theory is a tool that has been used in propagating imperfect and incomplete information in health risk assessment studies. Such analysis result in fuzzy risks which are associated with membership functions. Since possibilistic health risk assessment studies are relatively new, standard procedures for decision-making about the acceptability of the resulting fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp standard set by the regulatory agency are not fully established. In this paper, we are providing a review of several available approaches which may be used in decision-making. These approaches involve defuzzification techniques, the possibility and the necessity measures. In this study, we also propose a new measure, the risk tolerance measure, which can be used in decision making. The risk tolerance measure provides an effective metric for evaluating the acceptability of a fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp compliance criterion. Fuzzy risks with different membership functions are evaluated with respect to a crisp compliance criterion by using the possibility, the necessity, and the risk tolerance measures and the results are discussed comparatively.     

Risk factors contributing to motor vehicle collisions in an environment of uncertainty

The concepts of medical geography provide a framework for investigating the importance of people–place interactions in risk analysis and assessing the roles of individual, behavioral, and environmental risk factors. Analyses of data on motor vehicle collisions in Connecticut in 1995 and 1996 are used to illustrate geographical variations in the characteristics of collisions. A method is presented for identifying high frequency collision sites for particular collision types. Proportions and odds ratios calculated as local statistics are used to highlight sites where the individual, behavioral, or environmental characteristics of collisions differ significantly from those in the state as a whole. These differences have implications for developing better statistical models for knowledge synthesis and policy development.     

A systematic approach to synoptic tornado climatology of Hungary for the recent years (1996–2001) based on official damage reports

Due to the significant amount of severe storm damage from the mid 1990s, a practical need has arisen for updating risk assessment. For reliable and systematic sampling of events, data acquisition has been arranged through the disaster management official body using a pyramidal national coverage. Post-analysis, including its meteorological part, proceeds in a GIS environment. This paper focuses specifically on damaging tornadoes, since those are the most violent and best-documented phenomena. Different statistics are calculated and explained, such as seasonal, diurnal and magnitude distributions. Spatial occurrence and features are mapped. A complete synoptic climatology is given by typifying the generating conditions and categorizing events into certain classes, while discussing the role of the Carpathian Basin. In the end a conceptual issue in connection with self-similarity is raised for further discussion.     

Analysis of stability of earthen dams in kachchh region, Gujarat, India

The Kachchh region of Gujarat, India bore the brunt of a disastrous earthquake of magnitude M_w = 7.6 that occurred on January 26, 2001. The major cause of failure of various structures including earthen dams was noted to be the presence of liquefiable alluvium in the foundation soil. Results of back-analysis of failures of Chang, Tappar, Kaswati and Rudramata earth dams using pseudo-static limit equilibrium approach presented in this paper confirm that the presence of liquefiable layer contributed to lesser factors of safety leading to a base type of failure that was also observed in the field. Following the earthquake, earth dams have been rehabilitated by the concerned authority and it is imperative that the reconstructed sections of earth dams be reanalyzed. It is also increasingly realized that risk assessment of dams in view of the large-scale investment made and probabilistic analysis is necessary. In this study, it is demonstrated that the probabilistic approach when used in conjunction with deterministic approach helps in providing a rational solution for quantification of safety of the dam and in the estimation of risk associated with the dam construction.