Explaining risk perception of microplastics: Results from a representative survey in Germany

Plastic pollution through small particles, so-called microplastics, is acknowledged as an environmental problem of global dimension by both politicians, and the public. An increasing number of environmental studies investigate the exposure and effects of microplastics. Although there are many open questions, current scientific evidence does not confirm a high risk for the environment. At the same time, the issue receives great public attention, which in turn motivates various political and policy actions. So far, little research has examined the underlying social dimensions, i.e., the factors explaining individual risk perception of microplastics. This paper studies the perception of risks associated with microplastics concerning the environment and human health using data from a representative online survey conducted in Germany (n = 1027). We particularly examine the role of socio-demographics, individual awareness, knowledge factors, and the media’s influence on risk perception. Our results show that a majority of the respondents rates the risks through microplastics very high for both the environment and human health. Regression analyses demonstrate that environmental awareness and knowledge of media narratives are the strongest predictors for this risk perception. Our study illustrates the incongruence between scientific knowledge, media framing, and the public opinion concerning the risk posed by microplastics.     

Colocation of older adults with successful aging based on objective and subjective measures

Aging of the U.S. and world populations highlights the need to understand how and where people age successfully. Older adults with chronic conditions may rate themselves subjectively as aging successfully despite their objective limitations. A typology of successful aging combining objective and subjective criteria has been tested, but spatial patterns in these dimensions have not been widely studied. Our research explores patterns of successful and unsuccessful aging using the colocation quotient, a measure of spatial association among categories in a population. The colocation quotient assesses the degree to which older adults who age successfully are likely to live near other adults who do not age successfully. Data on 5576 participants in the ORANJ BOWL^SM survey, a statewide survey of older adults in New Jersey, were geocoded to the Census block level. Each participant was scored as aging successfully or not on each of the two dimensions. Global and local patterns of colocation of successful and unsuccessful aging in individuals were calculated based on the objective and subjective measures separately and then compared. The analysis reveals a strong regional pattern. In northern New Jersey and along the southeast coast, successful older adults on both dimensions were more likely to be colocated with subjectively unsuccessful older adults. In southern New Jersey, especially in the southwest, successful older adults on both dimensions were more likely to be colocated with the objectively unsuccessful. Spatial analysis of colocation can inform needs assessment for the growing population of older adults by identifying where older people age successfully and where they are aging unsuccessfully.     

浅论气候容量及其对气候安全风险管理的作用

全球气候安全问题已经日益突显,为了开展气候安全风险管理,国内学术界最近提出了气候容量的概念。然而,目前对气候容量的科学认识十分有限,甚至还没有比较统一的科学定义,对如何通过气候容量评价开展气候安全风险管理也没有明确的技术思路。在归纳总结以往研究的基础上,进一步讨论了气候容量及其对气候安全风险管理的作用,对气候容量给出了更加科学的定义和合理的诠释,并且分析了气候容量的科学属性和基本特征,探讨了全球气候安全风险的总体趋势,提出了利用气候容量的杠杆作用提升气候安全风险管理和气候资源开发利用水平的初步思路。这对推进我国气候业务对国家非传统安全的服务能力具有科学参考作用。     

American evangelicals and global warming

American evangelicals have long played a significant role in American culture and politics. Drawing from a nationally representative survey, this article describes American evangelicals’ global warming risk assessments and policy preferences and tests several theory-based factors hypothesized to influence their views. American evangelicals are less likely than non-evangelicals to believe that global warming is happening, caused mostly by human activities, and causing serious harm, yet a majority of evangelicals are concerned about climate change and support a range of climate change and energy related policies. Multiple regression analyses found that the combination of biospheric, altruistic, and egoistic value orientations is a more significant predictor of evangelicals’ risk assessments and policy support than negative affect, egalitarian or individualistic worldviews, or socio-demographic variables.     

地铁施工中的监测技术与安全风险管理

作为地下工程,城市地铁建设安全隐患大,风险高。在地铁施工过程中,采取何种措施和手段,保障地铁项目自身及周边建筑环境的安全,是地铁建设的一项重要内容。本文通过介绍目前地铁施工中的监测技术,结合风险管理的有关理论,指出了目前地铁施工中的监测技术及安全风险管理的不足,并提出了相应的改进措施,为类似工程建设提供参考。     

模块化城镇地震灾害风险评估系统设计、开发与实现

本文为满足不同用户对于地震灾害风险评估功能的需求,在对地震灾害风险评估成果进行分析整理的基础上,研究设计、开发并实现了由一系列通用功能模块组成的模块化地震灾害风险评估系统。在设计阶段确定了各模块的功能、所需数据及其相互关系,分割出一系列高内聚低耦合的功能模块;在此基础上确定系统使用MEF插件式开发框架,以功能模块为单位进行软件开发,形成多个具有特定功能、互相独立的工具包;使用WPF技术对该系统平台进行开发,通过整合各功能模块,最终形成多模块灵活组合调用、满足不同用户需求的城镇地震灾害风险动态评估系统。     

海上消防系统风险分析探讨

平台消防系统可靠与否直接影响到平台及平台操作人员的安全。文章在采用故障树方法对平台消防系统发生失效的路径及可能性进行分析。针对有些事件的发生频率极小但危险性极大的问题,引入危险度的概念,对可靠性进行量化,即计算产生概率,同时提出了计算模糊事件概率期望值的方法。为有效评估油气生产系统的安全性,以及建立起稳定可靠的功能服务系统提供了理论依据。     

概率风险评价及其在天基测控系统分析中的应用

介绍了概率风险评价方法及其相关的应用情况,给出了概率风险方法实施的一般过程,并将该方法应用于我国的天基测控系统风险分析中,给出了具体的应用示例,示例表明：概率风险评价方法对于研究天基测控系统的风险并采取相关措施有着积极的意义。     

Polluted River Systems: Monitoring and Assessment of Ecotoxicological Risks

In the past chemical, ecological, and toxicological research was carried out in a separate way. Nowadays, more and more studies are undertaken considering these three approaches in an integrated way (triad studies). A sophisticated combination of chemical and biological monitoring and bioassays can improve water quality management of polluted rivers. Application of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs), algorithms for mixture toxicity of known substances, chemical group parameters, and response-oriented sum parameters, may reduce uncertainties in ecotoxicological risk management.     

基于灾害风险管理的震害防御业务体系架构建立

随着我国经济社会的发展,震害防御业务内涵与外延不断演化发展.按照新时代防灾减灾救灾基本要求,首先阐述震害防御业务发展历程,遵循风险管理原则给出地震灾害风险基本概念;然后基于灾害风险管理过程,重构震害防御业务流程,运用系统分析方法对震害防御业务组成元素进行分析;最后在聚类分析的基础上,建立以地震灾害风险调查、评估、防治与...