顶管施工中的安全风险管理

论述了安全风险及安全风险管理的概念,探讨了顶管施工中可能遇到的安全风险以及安全风险管理的过程,最后提出了顶管施工中安全风险的规避对策与措施。     

顶管工程项目承包商的风险管理

顶管工程项目具有较高的风险,风险管理的难度也较大。本文分析了顸管工程项目承包商风险的种类、风险管理的特点及重点,探讨了顶管工程项目承包商风险的防范对策与措施。     

隧道下穿地铁拟换乘车站施工监测与安全分析

隧道下穿地铁既有车站为重大风险工程,下穿拟换乘车站时更应进行严格的风险评估与控制,以保证工程施工前后地铁车站的安全运营。本文主要就某新建隧道下穿北京地铁拟换乘车站万寿路站的风险评估和第三方监测进行研究。新建隧道施工可诱发既有车站结构的沉降,造成车站轨道过量变形,进而影响地铁安全运营,本工程采用了结构检测、施工影响模拟预测和第三方监测等工程风险评估和控制手段,结果表明万寿路站受隧道施工影响较小,地铁运营未受影响。     

The production of unequal risk in hazardscapes: An explanatory frame applied to disaster at the US–Mexico border

This paper advances understanding of how unequal risks to environmental hazards are generated. Marginalization is the best known explanation for the production of risk. The concept of marginalization was elaborated through studies of hazards in the global South and connotes how social inequalities constrain livelihood options of less powerful social groups. Thus, marginal groups are pressured to degrade landscapes and occupy hazardous environments while they experience decreased capacities to cope with environmental change. This paper directs analytical attention beyond the material to include the discursive realm and demonstrates that the production of unequal risk is contingent upon how hazards are differentially perceived, represented, and contested in social spaces. Findings from a flood disaster case study in the El Paso (US)–Ciudad Juárez (Mexico) border metropolis highlight how hegemonic discourses reinforce material processes of marginalization in flood-prone social spaces. Findings also reveal how socially-powerful geographical groups of people have harnessed institutional resources in their efforts to externalize risks and capitalize on environmental opportunities in some flood-prone areas. The concept of facilitation is used to explain the material-discursive production of socially-elite, flood-prone spaces. Facilitation clarifies how powerful groups are provided privileged access to institutional resources in their pursuit of environmental rewards, contributing to unjust socioenvironmental outcomes. In conclusion, I outline key aspects of how unequal risks are materially and discursively (re)produced within hazardscapes through relational processes of marginalization/facilitation.     

Biological effects in the management of chemicals in the marine environment

Coastal ecosystems are impacted by many stressors, of which chemicals are possibly not the most important. Chemicals differ from most other stressors such as eutrophication and hypersedimentation in the time scale-effects from the latter act on the scale of weeks or months, whereas effects from chemicals may take years to manifest themselves in population or community changes. There are four different approaches available to manage chemicals in marine ecosystems: target contaminant levels, target individual effects, target community impacts (biodiversity) and, finally, target processes. These four differ in the analytical methods available and the analyst's ability to separate effects from chemicals from other environmental factors and natural variation. There is furthermore, a need to develop a framework to integrate biological effects methods with risk assessment methodology. Such integration will improve the basis for risk-based assessment of chemicals. A problematic issue relevant to all aspects of environmental management are the interactions between chemicals, and between chemicals and eutrophication or sedimentation. There is a clear need for more knowledge about such interactions.     

Evaluating the impact of visualization of risk upon emergency route-planning

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on a controlled experiment evaluating how different cartographic representations of risk affect participants’ performance on a complex spatial decision task: route planning. The specific experimental scenario used is oriented towards emergency route-planning during flood response. The experiment compared six common abstract and metaphorical graphical symbolizations of risk. The results indicate a pattern of less-preferred graphical symbolizations associated with slower responses and lower-risk route choices. One mechanism that might explain these observed relationships would be that more complex and effortful maps promote closer attention paid by participants and lower levels of risk taking. Such user considerations have important implications for the design of maps and mapping interfaces for emergency planning and response. The data also highlights the importance of the ‘right decision, wrong outcome problem’ inherent in decision-making under uncertainty: in individual instances, more risky decisions do not always lead to worse outcomes.     

Risk perception,crop protection and plant disease in the UK wheat sector

While plant diseases have been the subject of scientific research, little is known about the perceptions of key actors towards plant disease risk within specific food sectors. Drawing on concepts of risk and uncertainty, and using in-depth interviews, this paper examines the ways in which endemic plant disease risks in the UK wheat sector are perceived and managed by key ‘upstream’ and ‘downstream’ businesses, as well as by farmers and agronomists. A majority of interviewees feel that plant disease is a controllable risk and one that rests mainly at the point of production (i.e. with farmers) within the wheat sector. This assumed ‘control’ is based mainly around the availability of plant protection products (e.g. fungicides) which reduce the sense of risk attributable to outbreaks of plant disease. As a consequence, there can be a tendency to grow higher-yielding wheat varieties that are less disease-resistant. The potential banning of certain fungicides under EU legislation and climate change are perceived future threats that could increase uncertainty and change the balance between ‘control’ and ‘resistance’, the latter through the use of more disease-resistant wheat varieties. Further research is needed on the perceived impacts of plant diseases and on how different wheat sector actors will contribute to the future control of plant diseases and the development of more integrated systems of plant disease management.     

Prediction of debris-flow danger area by combining hydrological and inundation simulation methods

Debris flows have caused serious human casualties and economic losses in the regions strongly affected by the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. Debris flow mitigation and risk assessment is a key issue for reconstruction.The existing methods of inundation simulation are based on historical disasters and have no power of prediction.The rain-flood method can not yield detailed flow hydrograph and does not meet the need of inundation simulation. In this paper,the process of water flow was studied by using the Arc-SCS model combined with hydraulic method,and then the debris flow runoff process was calculated using the empirical formula combining the result from Arc-SCS.The peak discharge and runoff duration served as input of inundation simulation. Then,the dangerous area is predicted using kinematic wave method and Manning equation.Taking the debris flow in Huashiban gully in Beichuan County,Sichuan Province,China on 24 Sep.2008 as example,the peak discharge of water flow and debris flow were calculated as 35.52 m3·s-1 and 215.66 m3·s-,with error of 4.15%compared to the measured values.The simulated area of debris-flow deposition was 161,500 m2,vs.the measured area of 144,097 m2,in error of 81.75%.The simulated maximum depth was 12.3 m,consistent with the real maximum depth between 10 and 15 m according to the field survey.The minor error is mainly due to the flow impact on buildings and variations in cross-section configuration.The present methodology can be applied to predict debris flow magnitude and evaluate its risk in other watersheds inthe earthquake area.     

从气象灾害防御到气象灾害风险管理的管理方法转变

讨论了气象灾害和气象灾害风险的重点研究对象。尝试性地将人类认识气象灾害的过程归纳为4个阶段：气象灾害的启蒙认识阶段、气象灾害的监测与预报阶段、气象灾害的减灾工程阶段和气象灾害的风险管理阶段。同时,引出了气象灾害和气象灾害风险的不同理念。以现在时刻为划分点,将过去已发生的灾害定义为气象灾害,将未来可能发生的灾害定义为气象灾害风险。最后建立了基于SWOT的远期气象灾害风险管理的分析方法,并提出了将人工影响天气作为气象灾害风险管理的气象工程手段的观点。     

Risk acceptance criterion for tanker oil spill risk reduction measures

This paper is aimed at investigating whether there is ample support for the view that the acceptance criterion for evaluating measures for prevention of oil spills from tankers should be based on cost-effectiveness considerations. One such criterion can be reflected by the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS) whereas its target value is updated by elaborating the inherent uncertainties of oil spill costs and establishing a value for the criterion’s assurance factor. To this end, a value of $80,000/t is proposed as a sensible CATS criterion and the proposed value for the assurance factor F = 1.5 is supported by the retrieved Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Clubs’ Annual Reports. It is envisaged that this criterion would allow the conversion of direct and indirect costs into a non-market value for the optimal allocation of resources between the various parties investing in shipping. A review of previous cost estimation models on oil spills is presented and a probability distribution (log-normal) is fitted on the available oil spill cost data, where it should be made abundantly clear that the mean value of the distribution is used for deriving the updated CATS criterion value. However, the difference between the initial and the updated CATS criterion in the percentiles of the distribution is small. It is found through the current analysis that results are partly lower than the predicted values from the published estimation models. The costs are also found to depend on the type of accident, which is in agreement with the results of previous studies. Other proposals on acceptance criteria are reviewed and it is asserted that the CATS criterion can be considered as the best candidate. Evidence is provided that the CATS approach is practical and meaningful by including examples of successful applications in actual risk assessments. Finally, it is suggested that the criterion may be refined subject to more readily available cost data and experience gained from future decisions.