Probabilistic risk and uncertainty analysis for bioremediation of four chlorinated ethenes in groundwater

Groundwater contamination risk assessment for health-threatening compounds should benefit from a stochastic environmental risk assessment which considers the effects of biological, chemical, human behavioral, and physiological processes that involve elements of biotic and abiotic aquifer uncertainty, and human population variability. This paper couples a complex model of chemical degradation and transformation with movement in an aquifer undergoing bioremediation to generate a health risk analysis for different population cohorts in the community. A two-stage Monte Carlo simulation has separate stages for population variability and aquifer uncertainty yielding a computationally efficient and conceptually attractive algorithm. A hypothetical example illustrates how risk variance analysis can be conducted to determine the distribution of risk, and the relative impact of uncertainty and variability in different sets of parameters upon the variation of risk values for adults, adolescents, and children. The groundwater example considers a community water supply contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. Biodegradation pathways are enhanced by addition of butyrate. The results showed that the contribution of uncertainty to the risk variance is comparable to that of variability. Among the uncertain parameters considered, transmissivity accounted for the major part of the output variance. Children were the most susceptible and vulnerable population cohort.     

Geographies of uncertainty in the health benefits of air quality improvements

Assessing the long-term benefits of marginal improvements in air quality from regulatory intervention is methodologically challenging. In this study, we explore how the relative risks (RRs) of mortality from air pollution exposure change over time and whether patterns in the RRs can be attributed to air quality improvements. We employed two-stage multilevel Cox models to describe the association between air pollution and mortality for 51 cities with data from the American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort (N = 264,299, deaths = 69,819). New pollution data were computed through models that predict yearly average fine particle (PM_2.5) concentrations throughout the follow-up (1982–2000). Average PM_2.5 concentrations from 1999 to 2000 and sulfate concentrations from 1980 were also examined. We estimated the RRs of mortality associated with air pollution separately for five time periods (1982–1986, 1987–1990, 1991–1994, 1995–1998, and 1999–2000). Mobility models were implemented with a sub-sample of 100,557 subjects to assist with interpreting the RR estimates. Sulfate RRs exhibit a large decline from the 1980s to the 1990s. In contrast, PM_2.5 RRs follow the opposite pattern, with larger RRs later in the 1990s. The reduction in sulfate RR may have resulted from air quality improvements that occurred through the 1980s and 1990s in response to the acid rain control program. PM_2.5 concentrations also declined in many places, but toxic mobile sources are now the largest contributors to PM in urban areas. This may account for the heightened RR of mortality associated with PM_2.5 in the 1990s. The paper concludes with a three alternative explanations for the temporal pattern of RRs, each emphasizing the uncertainty in ascribing health benefits to air quality improvements.     

Ecological Chemistry in New Independent States of the Former Soviet Union

An overview is presented on the research in Ecological Chemistry performed recently in the NIS countries in various research areas, including: ecological chemistry of water, air, soil, waste management and cleaner production, and chemical risk management. General links of Ecological Chemistry to other scientific areas are shown. The main environmental problems and anthropogenic impacts are mentioned, among them those which are specific for the NIS countries, and recent results, both of theoretical and practical significance, which were obtained by various research teams of the NIS countries are presented.     

A disaster risk management performance index

The Risk Management Index, RMI, proposed in this paper, brings together a group of indicators that measure risk management performance and effectiveness. These indicators reflect the organizational, development, capacity and institutional actions taken to reduce vulnerability and losses in a given area, to prepare for crisis and to recover efficiently from disasters. This index is designed to assess risk management performance. It provides a quantitative measure of management based on predefined qualitative targets or benchmarks that risk management efforts should aim to achieve. The design of the RMI involved establishing a scale of achievement levels or determining the distance between current conditions and an objective threshold or conditions in a reference country, sub-national region, or city. The proposed RMI is constructed by quantifying four public policies, each of which is described by six indicators. The mentioned policies include the identification of risk, risk reduction, disaster management, and governance and financial protection. Risk identification comprises the individual perception, social representation and objective assessment; risk reduction involves the prevention and mitigation; disaster management comprises response and recovery; and, governance and financial protection policy is related to institutionalization and risk transfer. Results at the urban, national and sub-national levels, which illustrate the application of the RMI in those scales, are finally given.     

Evaluation of the health risk from water contamination in the city of Tandil, Argentina

The paper focuses on the concentration of nitrates detected in superficial waters (lake and streams) and groundwater (wells) used as sources of water supply. It attempts to determine the level of risk due to the presence of urban industrial uses and correlate it with the quality of urban life, in order to determine social vulnerability to the risk of industrial contamination. A geographic information system (GIS) was constructed with layers for various census data, topographic and landuse features and the location of water samples. An index of quality of life was developed using selected variables. This was then compared to the essential services provision data and the results of the water sample analyses. The concentration of nitrates (mg/l or ppm) in the water samples was determined. These values were translated into maps of contaminants, which were then correlated with their possible sources and with the quality of life of the population affected. The concentration of nitrates in wells has been considered alarming, but more concern has been expressed about concentrations in the public water supply network. Spatial correlation between areas with high risk of contaminated water and areas with the worst quality of life, indicates the importance of controlling chemical contamination, and demands improvements in the public water supply network and revision of the theory of social vulnerability.     

Geomoney: An option on frost, going long on clouds

The paper adopts a cultural economy approach to explore the emergence of a market in so-called weather derivatives, referred to in the paper as a form of ‘geomoney’. These are specially designed financial products that allow firms to protect their profits against the impact of changing weather conditions. The paper approaches the emergence of this market, and the issues its growth raises, in three interlinked stages. Weather derivatives are located amongst the hybrid collective that is contemporary finance and are analysed through the conceptual apparatus afforded by a cultural economy approach to finance. The paper employs this analytical line to examine the assumptions and models that enable the weather to be turned into a risk and then be transported and traded within capital markets. Through specific examples of weather products together with a discussion of the International Finance Corporation’s recent involvement in this market, the paper suggests something of the ‘world making’ capabilities of finance theory and the politics of finance often hidden beneath the mathematical models. The paper concludes by highlighting not only the usefulness of a cultural economy of finance to geographers but, in light of the examples discussed, the need for cultural economy to recognise and to engage critically in its analysis the politics that such a conceptual approach to the making of financial markets exposes.     

法国防雷工作现状及启示

介绍了法国雷电监测预警系统AMEO 340和防雷业务管理工作,并借鉴其经验,从做好雷电灾害调查与评估和雷电灾害区划,规划建设雷电灾害监测预警平台和预报平台,实现全省雷电业务集约化发展,开展雷电科学技术研究,建立雷电灾害应急处置机制等方面,探讨如何做好防雷业务工作。     

THE LOCATIONAL CONCENTRATION OF GROUP HOMES IN TORONTO1

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the concentration of social service facilities within North American cities. The location quotient and the coefficient of localization are applied to data on Adult Services, Children's Services and psychiatric group homes (residential care facilities) in Metropolitan Toronto. Results demonstrate a high degree of localization in all three categories, particularly the psychiatric, and could be used in the formulation of placement policies to relieve certain areas of the inner city of the social and economic pressures created by group home concentration.     

关于抚顺矿震活动趋势分析

依据1988年以来抚顺矿震资料，用李治平等人建立的矿山地震能量冈贝尔Ⅰ型极值分布模型，并结合其它地震活动性分析方法，对抚顺矿震活动危险性进行了研究。结果认为：近几年矿震活动水平急剧增强与矿区断裂构造活动无关，主要是由于煤矿采掘所致；今后一定时期内，如果采矿条件不变，矿震活动频次和强度可能仍分别按约33.3次/年和0.08级/年自然增长速度增长；未来几年内矿震的最大强度为Ml4.0左右（概率为0.58-0.72）。     

中国区域经济发展差异的实证研究与R/S分析

文章回顾了改革开放以来中国经济发展战略的转变，介绍了吉尼系数，区域经济区位熵和Hausdoeff Index的计算方法。采用GDP指标，运用吉尼系数和区域经济区位熵分析了改革开放以来中国三大地带之间，省区之间的绝对差距和相对差距的变化趋势，而且还运用分形理论和R／S方法研究了中国区域经济发展差异的收敛性，得出的结论如下：（1）无论从绝对差距还是从相对差距上看，自改变开放以来中国三大地带之间或省区之间的经济发展差距都在扩大。（2）1995年所实施的区域协调发展战略在近期内并没有缩小地区之间的发展差距。（3）R／S分析结果表明中国区域经济发展差异在未来20年内将继续扩大。