Ballast water sampling as a critical component of biological invasions risk management

The human mediated transfer of harmful organisms via shipping, specifically via ballast water transport, leading to the loss of biodiversity, alteration of ecosystems, negative impacts on human health and in some regions economic loss, has raised considerable attention especially in the last decade. Ballast water sampling is very important for biological invasions risk management. The complexity of ballast water sampling is a result of both the variety of organism diversity and behaviour, as well as ship design including availability of ballast water sampling points. Furthermore, ballast water sampling methodology is influenced by the objectives of the sampling study. In the course of research conducted in Slovenia, new sampling equipment for ships' ballast water was developed and tested. In this paper new ballast water sampling methods and equipment together with practical shipboard testing results are presented.     

Framework for soil suitability evaluation for sewage effluent renovation

Current methods of establishing suitable locations for onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are inadequate, particularly in light of the numerous cases of onsite system failure and the resulting adverse consequences. The development of a soil suitability framework for assessing soil suitability for OWTS allows a more practical means of assessment. The use of multivariate statistical analysis techniques, including Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and multi-criteria decision aids of PROMETHEE and GAIA, enabled the identification of suitable soils for effluent renovation. The outcome of the multivariate analysis, together with soil permeability and drainage characteristics permitted the establishment of a framework for assessing soil suitability based on three main soil functions: (1) the ability of the soil to provide suitable effluent renovation, (2) the permeability of the soil, and (3) the soils drainage characteristics. The developed framework was subsequently applied to the research area, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia, and the use of standard scoring functions were utilised to provide a scoring system to signify which soils were more suitable for effluent renovation processes. From the assessment, it was found that Chromosol and Kurosol soils provided the highest level of effluent renovation, closely followed by Ferrosol and Dermosol, Kandosol and Rudosol soil types. Tennosol and Podosol soil types were found to have a significantly lower suitability, with Hydrosol soils proving the least suitable for renovating effluent from OWTS.     

Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation

Frequent ash fallout from long-lived eruptions (with active phases greater than 5 years) may lead to local populations experiencing unacceptably high cumulative exposures to respirable particulate matter. Ash from Montserrat has been shown to contain significant levels of cristobalite and other reactive agents that are associated with an increased risk of developing pneumoconiosis (including silicosis) and other long-term health problems. There are a number of difficulties associated with estimating risks in populations due to uncertain and wide ranging individual exposures, change in behaviour with time and the natural variation in individual response. Present estimates of risk in workers and other population groups are simplifications based on a limited number of exposure measurements taken on Montserrat (1996–1999), and exposure−response curves from epidemiological studies of coal workers exposed to siliceous dust. In this paper we present a method for calculating the long-term cumulative exposure to cristobalite from volcanic ash by Monte Carlo simulation. Code has been written to generate synthetic time series for volcanic activity, rainfall, ash deposition and erosion to give daily ash deposit values and cristobalite fraction at a range of locations. The daily mean personal exposure for PM₁₀ and cristobalite is obtained by sampling from a probability distribution, with distribution parameters dependent on occupation, ground deposit depth and daily weather conditions. Output from multiple runs is processed to calculate the exceedance probability for cumulative exposure over a range of occupation types, locations and exposure periods. Results are interpreted in terms of current occupational standards, and epidemiological exposure−response functions for silicosis are applied to quantify the long-term health risk. Assuming continuing volcanic activity, median risk of silicosis (profusion 1/0 or higher) for an average adult after 20 years continuous exposure is estimated to be approximately 0.5% in northern Montserrat to 1.6% in Cork Hill. The occupational group with the highest exposure to ash are gardeners, with a corresponding 2% to 4% risk of silicosis. In situations where opportunities for in-depth exposure studies are limited, computer simulations provide a good indication of risk based on current expert knowledge. By running the code for a range of input scenarios, the cost-benefit of mitigation measures (such as a programme of active ash clearance) can be estimated. Results also may be used to identify situations where full exposure studies or fieldwork would be beneficial. Editorial responsibility: J Stix     

Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. II: Hazard consequences and risk calculation

In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert     

Model for Estimation of Time and Cost for Tunnel Projects Based on Risk Evaluation

Summary. In the planning and procurement phases of tunnelling projects, numerous decisions have to be made regarding tender price and budget. Many case studies have shown that, in practice, the predicted costs and time schedules are often exceeded. This paper describes a study of the various risk factors in machine tunnelling and their differing impacts on cost and time. It has been concluded from the study that it is important to make a clear distinction between normal cost and time, and the undesirable events that cause exceptional cost and time. Existing decision-aid estimation models consider variation of the risk factors, but do not consider normal cost or time separately from undesirable events. Usually, estimations of project cost and time are made in a deterministic manner, but this does not allow one to consider uncertainty in cost and time variables. However, if the variables are treated probabilistically, the total cost of tunnelling can be expressed as a distribution curve, and a decision can be made on the tunnelling method by comparing the respective cost and time distributions. Based on such decisions, the budget and tender price can be determined separately, both by the client and contractor respectively. To meet the demands placed on decision-making for tender and procurement for currently favoured construction-contracting methods, a new model for estimating tender price and budget has been developed, and is described in this paper. This estimating technique has been applied to a case study of the Grauholz Tunnel. The predictions obtained from the estimation model are shown to be realistic, as the total construction cost and time obtained from the model correspond fairly well to the actual construction cost and time. The separate estimation of normal cost and time and exceptional cost and time contribute to the clarity of the results. The use of the proposed model also shows that the tunnelling method most suitable for the actual geological and hydrogeological conditions can be selected by this method.     

Global rockfalls risk management process in ‘La Désirade‘ Island (French West Indies)

The Island of ‘La Désirade‘ is severely affected by rock falls. One house located in the area of ‘Le Souffleur‘ was partly destroyed by blocks in 1997, with two people injured. About 50 people still live under a dangerous cliff along the road from Beauséjour to Baie-Mahault, the two main villages of this eastern end of Guadeloupe archipelago. The first solution proposed by the state based on relocation of few houses was faced to population hostility. Solutions had to be reshaped and designed based on a global assessment of the different hazards affecting the Island (earthquakes, cyclones, flooding), on protection works taking into account the fact that French regulation prohibits new constructions behind protection fences, and on global and local land-use development. Risk management process has included technical analysis, social behaviour, cultural heritage of building and development, responsibility and regulation, short-term and long-term financing, land-use development strategy as well as information and communication. The solutions that are now being implemented seem to give satisfaction to all the partners. This example of landslide risk management carried out in La Désirade is discussed in this paper.     

Geomorphic hazard assessment of landslide dams in South Westland, New Zealand: fundamental problems and approaches

Quantitative assessments of landslide hazard usually employ empirical, heuristic, deterministic, or statistical methods to derive estimates of magnitude–frequency distributions of landsliding. The formation and failure of landslide dams are common geomorphic processes in mountain regions throughout the world, causing a series of consequential off-site hazards such as catastrophic outburst floods, debris flows, backwater ponding, up- and downstream aggradation, and channel instability.Conceptual and methodological problems of quantifying geomorphic hazard from landslide dams result from (a) aspects of defining “landslide-dam magnitude”, (b) scaling effects, i.e. the geomorphic long-range and long-term implications of river blockage, and (c) paucity of empirical data. Geomorphic hazard from a landslide dam-break flood on the basis of conditional probabilities is being analysed for the alpine South Westland region of New Zealand, where formation and failure of landslide dams is frequent. Quantification of the annual probability of landsliding and subsequent dam formation in the area is limited by historical and only partially representative empirical data on slope instability. Since landslide-dam stability is a major control governing the potential of catastrophic outburst flooding, the ensuing hazard is best assessed on a recurring basis. GIS-based modelling of virtual landslide dams is a simple and cost-effective approach to approximate site-specific landslide dam and lake dimensions, reservoir infill times, and scaled magnitude of potential outburst floods. Although crude, these order-of-magnitude results provide information critical to natural hazard planning, mitigation, or emergency management decisions.     

Enhancing the human benefits of flood warnings

This article evaluates some of the factors which limit the human benefits of hazard warnings, with specific reference to flood warnings, and we conclude by suggesting ways of enhancing these benefits. We focus mainly upon the economic benefits generated by flood damage savings by households that warnings facilitate; health effects of flooding and flood warnings; and the effects of warnings on loss of life and physical injury. Our results, based partly upon surveys of flooded households, reveal that economic benefits are currently more limited than we previously thought, but that for several reasons these benefits are likely to be under-estimated. We argue that the intangible benefits to public health, safety and security must also be taken into account in decisions about investment in flood warnings. In England and Wales, the public’s response to flood warnings is currently low and is a key benefit-limiting factor which could begin to undermine a recent major shift in national flood risk management policy towards a more people-centred, portfolio approach in which changing human behaviour is viewed as important. Using a trans-disciplinary approach, we discuss the evidence and literature surrounding this poor response, and suggest a number of ways in which the issue may be addressed in future.     

Regional deterministic characterization of fracture networks and its application to GIS-based rock fall risk assessment

The study investigates the possibility to incorporate fracture intensity and block geometry as spatially continuous parameters in GIS-based systems. For this purpose, a deterministic method has been implemented to estimate block size (Bloc3D) and joint frequency (COLTOP). In addition to measuring the block size, the Bloc3D Method provides a 3D representation of the shape of individual blocks. These two methods were applied using field measurements (joint set orientation and spacing) performed over a large field area, in the Swiss Alps. This area is characterized by a complex geology, a number of different rock masses and varying degrees of metamorphism. The spatial variability of the parameters was evaluated with regard to lithology and major faults. A model incorporating these measurements and observations into a GIS system to assess the risk associated with rock falls is proposed. The analysis concludes with a discussion on the feasibility of such an application in regularly and irregularly jointed rock masses, with persistent and impersistent discontinuities.