地震多发区居民风险感知对巨灾保险需求影响研究

地震巨灾保险一直是我国地震灾害风险共担体系的重要组成部分。本文基于2023年1月26日四川泸定5.6级地震问卷调查数据,探索居民风险感知对巨灾保险需求的影响,以期改善地震巨灾保险具体推广路径。实证分析结果表明,存在地震经历、心理恐慌程度、地震保险认知这三种风险感知因子对地震巨灾保险需求产生正向影响。此外,附加政府补贴政策的巨灾保险产品,更容易得到居民的认可。因此,我国巨灾保险的推广,尤其是在地震多发区,要坚持长期普及和灾时宣传相结合的策略。在当前的地震保险推广过程中,仍然需要继续实行附加政府补贴的政策,将有利于我国巨灾保险的健康发展。     

上海流砂灾害的风险评价和分区研究

本文基于上海市流砂的特征及分布,构建了流砂风险评价指标体系,进行流砂灾害的风险评价、分区及管理区划。首先,根据②3、⑤2和⑦层粉砂性土的空间分布特征进行了危险性分析及分区;其次,基于行政区划、综合考虑社会经济统计类指标完成了易损性分析及分区,在此基础上对上海流砂地质风险做了综合评价和分区;最后,结合上海市十二五规划中关于经济和城市重点项目建设内容,提出了十二五期间流砂地质风险防治管理区划方案。其成果将为上海市地下工程（含基坑工程、地铁隧道、地下商城等）的勘察、设计、施工和运行中可能的流砂灾害的监测、预报及防治等提供指导及地质依据,并为管理部门的监督和管理提供决策参考。     

不同结构顺层岩质滑坡运动过程风险性的实验研究

顺层岩质滑坡是常见的斜坡灾害,此类滑坡的灾害强度与岩体结构、地形等因素密切相关,为此,在滑坡风险评价和灾害评估中考虑滑坡的组成结构具有重要的理论意义。首先,分析了影响顺层岩质滑坡运动过程的结构要素,并提出了滑坡的常见地质结构模型; 然后,通过物理模型实验测试了不同滑体结构、坡角和初始速度组合下,滑坡的运动过程,并分析了不同结构滑坡运动学参数的基本规律; 最后,总结了滑坡风险计算模型的主要参数,并探讨了不同结构顺层岩质滑坡在滑体内和堆积区风险参数的建议值。结果表明:(1)考虑地形、岩体结构和控制性滑面3个因素,顺层岩质滑坡可划分为类散体结构、层状结构和块状结构3大类结构,层状结构进一步分为3个亚类; (2)物理模型实验所模拟的7类结构滑体,主滑段的末速度、堆积段影响范围(L1)和冲击强度(1)表现为板状岩体(Ⅱ)块状岩体(Ⅳ)类散体(Ⅶ); (3)主滑段末速度:多层含未贯通节理块状岩体(Ⅴ)多层板状岩体(Ⅱ)多层块状岩体(Ⅳ), Ⅳ类岩体影响范围最大, Ⅱ类岩体的冲击力最大; (4)滑体内的易损性作用强度块状岩体滑坡(Ⅳ和Ⅴ)多层板状岩体(Ⅱ和Ⅲ)类散体滑坡(Ⅶ)单层板状岩体滑坡(Ⅰ)。堆积区后部的作用强度指标:(Ⅱ、Ⅲ和Ⅴ)ⅣⅠⅦ; 堆积区中前部的作用强度指标: ⅡⅤⅣⅢⅠ。     

柴达木盆地枸杞霜冻灾害风险区划

基于气象灾害风险评估方法,利用1961-2017年5-9月柴达木盆地10个代表气象观测站点枸杞种植期发生霜冻灾害频次。结合自然地理和社会经济等数据,建立起致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个评价指标;采用加权综合评价法,权重赋值进行专家打分来确定,借助GIS空间分析技术,进行了柴达木盆地枸杞霜冻灾害风险评估和区划。结果表明：在柴达木盆地海拔高度在3200米以上,枸杞无法正常生长属于枸杞不可种植区;在冷湖、茫崖大部地区,格尔木南部、大柴旦、德令哈、乌兰以及都兰地区靠近山脉区域,枸杞生长期短,适合耕种的枸杞品种少,对枸杞生产经济效益影响较轻,属于低风险区;在诺木洪、格尔木西部和大柴旦东部地区,这一带多为戈壁,水资源缺乏,适宜种植枸杞面积相对有一定规模。对于霜冻灾害发生的影响程度不太严重,造成的经济损失不太大,属于次高风险区;在都兰经诺木洪至格尔木的小灶火一带,这里是柴达木盆地的枸杞主要种植区,该区域霜冻灾害发生对枸杞影响最大的区域,对枸杞生产产生的经济损失最大,属于高风险区。     

试论高校负债发展中的筹资风险及其控制策略

高校发展中的适度负债是解决制约高校超常规发展的有效方式 ,但高校在使用负债资金实现办学目标时 ,却存在巨大的风险。控制负债筹资风险的策略是 :1.把握现实 ,转变观念 ,树立风险意识 ;2 .确定适度的负债结构 ,降低资金成本 ;3.正确把握负债的数量与规模 ,保持合理的负债比率 ,提高偿债能力 ;4 .强化预算管理 ,建立控制风险和抵御风险的内部机制。     

利用资本市场 加速推进GIS产业的发展

我国GIS产业面临严峻的挑战与发展的机遇 ,在GIS产业的发展中 ,应学会灵活运用资本市场与GIS产业的关系 ,利用资本市场完善GIS企业制度、筹措资金、实现GIS企业的跳跃式发展     

Efficient Bayesian networks for slope safety evaluation with large quantity monitoring information

New sensing and wireless technologies generate massive data. This paper proposes an efficient Bayesian network to evaluate the slope safety using large-quantity field monitoring information with underlying physical mechanisms. A Bayesian network for a slope involving correlated material properties and dozens of observational points is constructed.     

Modelling risk and risking models: The diffusive boundary between science and policy in volcanic risk management

This article examines the science–policy interface in volcanic risk assessment. It analyses empirical data from research on Montserrat, where new volcanic risk assessment methodologies were pioneered. We discuss the ways in which these methods contributed towards the ordering of scientific advice in its geographical context, and we provide examples of the complex and overlapping topologies that are assembled in a volcanic eruption. In this case, the science–policy interface can be conceptualised as diffusive: both science and policy contain multiple overlapping networks of actors, objects and ideas that interact with one another through flows of responsibilities, attribution, identity and interpretation. Volcanic risk management involves negotiation of conceptual, relational and physical boundaries, and as a result requires the use of qualitative and quantitative methods across human and physical geography.     

What is a successful environmental geochemical study?

A successful piece of applied research will not only influence the related problem perception within the scientific community, but also lead to much better understanding of a complex challenge, including the delivery of solutions. Ideally it may contribute significantly to reducing possible risk situations for people and/or the natural environment. In short, a successful study will have a broader impact beyond the sphere of science. Planning, timing, funding, networking, communication, and interdisciplinarity are identified as key aspects for a successful project and are being examined in their scope and boundary conditions, while not neglecting the particular role of local and regional people and authorities.Defining what makes a successful environmental geochemical study is clearly based upon experience and evidence found, and not upon any particular theoretical concept. Here, experience is drawn from the outcome of many projects and specifically first-hand from the complex ARSENEX project in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Against the backdrop of both perceived and real arsenic contamination of environmental compartments, including local people, all subsequent project steps and proposals were set up using a three-prong approach that sought to a) understand the processes, b) educate and inform the public and all other stakeholders and c) remediate the situation.     

Effects of elevated pCO2 on reproductive properties of the benthic copepod Tigriopus japonicus and gastropod Babylonia japonica

We investigated the effects of elevated pCO₂ in seawater both on the acute mortality and the reproductive properties of the benthic copepod Tigriopus japonicus and gastropod Babylonia japonica with the purpose of accumulating basic data for assessing potential environmental impacts of sub-sea geological storage of anthropogenic CO₂ in Japan. Acute tests showed that nauplii of T. japonicus have a high tolerance to elevated pCO₂ environments. Full life cycle tests on T. japonicus indicated NOEC = 5800 μatm and LOEC = 37,000 μatm. Adult B. japonica showed remarkable resistance to elevated pCO₂ in the acute tests. Embryonic development of B. japonica showed a NOEC = 1500 μatm and LOEC = 5400 μatm. T. japonicus showed high resistance to elevated pCO₂ throughout the life cycle and B. japonica are rather sensitive during the veliger stage when they started to form their shells.