Personalized risk messaging can reduce climate concerns

One potential barrier to climate policy action is that individuals view climate change as a problem for people in other parts of the world or for future generations. As some scholars argue, risk messaging strategies that make climate change personally relevant may help overcome this barrier. In this article, we report a large-n survey experiment on San Francisco Bay Area residents to investigate how providing spatially-resolved risk information to individuals shapes their climate risk perceptions in the context of sea-level rise. Our results suggest that personalized risk messaging can sometimes reduce concern about sea-level rise. These experimental effects are limited to respondents who believe that climate change is happening. Further, we do not find an effect of providing local risk messages on an individual's willingness to pay for regional climate adaptation measures. Our results emphasize that local messaging strategies around sea-level rise risks may not have the clear impacts that some advocates and scholars presume.     

基于AHP的天津泥石流灾害评估

利用天津市蓟州区降水、地形地貌、人口、地质灾害、DEM数字高程数据等资料,以天津北部蓟州区为研究对象,采用无结构不规则网格设计方法对研究区域进行网格划分,应用层次分析法（AHP）确定直接雨量和间接雨量、水流流速、地形地貌、人口密度、发生频率等泥石流危险因子权重,建立天津泥石流危险度评估模型。利用模型对蓟州区2011-2018年11次强降雨过程进行泥石流危险度评估。结果表明：过程降雨量最大、降雨最为集中的2016年7月20日泥石流危险度最高,雨势平稳的2018年8月12-14日危险度最低;蓟州区2012年7月22日出现的双安泥石流以及2018年7月24日出现的小型山体崩塌,在模型对应的区域内均显示有泥石流风险存在,表明模型对泥石流具有较好的评估能力,可应用于业务和服务中。采用广义极值分布函数计算了蓟州区不同重现期1 h和12 h雨量,利用泥石流危险度评估模型模拟不同重现期雨量的泥石流风险,研究结果可为相关部门和行业提供决策参考。     

隧道与地下工程风险评估方法研究进展

风险评估是隧道与地下工程风险管理的核心,是系统地识别工程风险和科学合理地管理风险之间重要的纽带,是决策分析的基础。本文介绍了隧道与地下工程风险评估的基本概念、国内外风险评估方法的研究和应用现状以及近年来主要应用的几种风险评估方法。探讨了目前风险评估方法需要解决的问题和今后的研究方向。     

What is a successful environmental geochemical study?

A successful piece of applied research will not only influence the related problem perception within the scientific community, but also lead to much better understanding of a complex challenge, including the delivery of solutions. Ideally it may contribute significantly to reducing possible risk situations for people and/or the natural environment. In short, a successful study will have a broader impact beyond the sphere of science. Planning, timing, funding, networking, communication, and interdisciplinarity are identified as key aspects for a successful project and are being examined in their scope and boundary conditions, while not neglecting the particular role of local and regional people and authorities.Defining what makes a successful environmental geochemical study is clearly based upon experience and evidence found, and not upon any particular theoretical concept. Here, experience is drawn from the outcome of many projects and specifically first-hand from the complex ARSENEX project in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Against the backdrop of both perceived and real arsenic contamination of environmental compartments, including local people, all subsequent project steps and proposals were set up using a three-prong approach that sought to a) understand the processes, b) educate and inform the public and all other stakeholders and c) remediate the situation.     

Flood risk management in Central Viet Nam: challenges and potentials

This article explores the impacts of floods on the economy, environment, and society and tries to clarify the rural community’s coping mechanism to flood disasters in Central Viet Nam. It focuses on the social aspects of flood risk perception that shapes the responses to floods. The research findings revealed that flooding is an essential element for a coastal population, whose livelihood depend on productive functions of cyclical floods. The findings also revealed that floods, causing losses and damages, often inhibited economic development. The surveyed communities appeared to have evolved coping mechanisms to reduce the negative impacts of the floods, yet these coping mechanisms are under pressure due to environmental degradation. Integrated flood risk management is considered as a suitable paradigm for coping with flood disasters.

市政管道的全寿命风险评估

市政管道的全寿命风险评估是市政管道风险管理的重要组成部分,准确而有效的评估决策关系到管道建设的成败问题。本文通过对市政管道全寿命周期内单元风险进行识别与分类;采用现有的管道风险技术,和专家评分法等方法对风险因子进行实效因素评分,然后进行市政管道的全寿命风险评估。     

Risk Assessment based on the Mathematical Model of Diffuse Exogenous Geological Processes

The estimation of the risk caused by hazardous geological processes is a common problem. The aim of this paper is to present a method for solving problems involving a wide spectrum of diffuse exogenous geological processes, based on the mathematical morphology of landscapes. Diffuse processes develop as random rounded sites within certain areas and include karstification, subsidence, thermo-karstification and aeolian processes. Model assumptions take into consideration spatial and temporal randomness of occurrence, independent growth under occasional conditions, and cessation of growth given a ‘stop factor’, with transformation into degenerate sites. Based on these model assumptions, the following probabilities of impact by diffuse exogenous geological processes are solved for analytically. Firstly, the probability of impact on engineering constructions of round shape given the size of the diffuse processes and the known average impact risk; secondly, the probability of impact on small engineering constructions (points); and lastly, the probability of impact on linear engineering constructions of specified length. The computed impact probabilities are verified in various areas within Western Siberia.     

地质资料管理存在的风险及内部控制的建立

内部控制可以理解为股份公司的内部合理的规章制度,是强化企业管理,建立现代企业制度不可或缺的要求,中石化地质资料管理也要按照内部控制的框架设置控制环境、进行风险评价、采取控制活动及进行信息沟通和实施监督管理,逐步实现从“人治”管理向制度化管理的转变。     

Spatial distribution,environmental assessment and source identification of metals content in surface sediments of freshwater reservoir,Pakistan

Surface sediments were collected from different sites of a freshwater reservoir, Pakistan, and analyzed for eight metals (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn) using flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The estimated metals levels were found higher than other reported studies. The environmental indices including geoaccumulation index, enrichment factor and contamination factor identified Cd, Co, Pb and Zn as the priority pollutants of concern. Chromium, Cu and Mn were also found to be enriched in some areas. The pollution load index (≥1) indicated progressive deterioration of the sediments quality. Principal component and cluster analyses revealed that Cd, Co, Pb and Zn were mainly originated from agricultural activities, domestic wastes, road runoffs and recreational activities. Chromium, Cu, Fe and Mn were mainly derived from natural sources though Cr, Cu and Mn were partially contributed by human inputs. Based on spatial distribution, inlet and middle sites of the reservoir were found more contaminated. This study would drive urgent attention to develop preventive actions and remediation processes for aquatic system protection and future restoration of the reservoir.     

Using soil and contaminant properties to assess the potential for groundwater contamination to the lower Great Lakes,USA

Contaminant risk factors in surface soil were evaluated within the urbanized Rouge River watershed in southeastern Michigan, USA, which includes metropolitan Detroit. An analytical risk factor model and Geographic Information Systems overlays were used to quantify and characterize the potential impacts of five categories of contaminants including DNAPLs (dense nonaqueous phase liquids), LNAPLs (light nonaqueous phase liquids), PAHs (polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons), PCBs (polychlorinated biphenyls), and lead. The results indicate that DNAPL compounds released into sand, moraine, and sandy and silty clay soil types have the greatest potential to affect groundwater, and impact the Great Lakes ecosystem and the public health.