Public acceptance of the oceanic carbon sequestration

CO₂ ocean sequestration may be an effective option for mitigating global warming. There are risks associated with this process, particularly the local impact on deep-sea environments. Public acceptance is required for the implementation of this technology, even though the impacts have been proven to be trivial. In this study, a questionnaire survey was conducted to find the correlation between public acceptance of CO₂ sequestration and influential factors by covariance structure analysis. In addition, risk communication via the Internet was carried out. These analyses revealed that careful investigation of the target oceanic site and field experiments are important in gaining public acceptance of CO₂ sequestration.     

地质资料管理存在的风险及内部控制的建立

内部控制可以理解为股份公司的内部合理的规章制度,是强化企业管理,建立现代企业制度不可或缺的要求,中石化地质资料管理也要按照内部控制的框架设置控制环境、进行风险评价、采取控制活动及进行信息沟通和实施监督管理,逐步实现从“人治”管理向制度化管理的转变。     

Megacities – megarisks

We review the definitions, population trends, and characteristics of megacities. Characteristics of megacities are, apart from their size, their complexity in terms of administration, infrastructure, traffic, etc., and at the same time the speed of change. Vulnerabilities and risk potential are discussed using the examples of Mexico City and Mumbai. We present the experience accumulated in the 6 years work of the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI, ) with more than 20 large cities around the world, mostly located in the developing world. On this background we analyze obstacles that keep megacities from developing an efficient approach towards disaster mitigation and define a strategy that might overcome these problems. The key element of this strategy is the development of a Disaster Risk Management Master Plan (DRMMP) for cities. Currently the Istanbul Earthquake Master Plan (IEMP) serves as best example for an appropriate strategy for disaster reduction in megacities.     

Risk Assessment based on the Mathematical Model of Diffuse Exogenous Geological Processes

The estimation of the risk caused by hazardous geological processes is a common problem. The aim of this paper is to present a method for solving problems involving a wide spectrum of diffuse exogenous geological processes, based on the mathematical morphology of landscapes. Diffuse processes develop as random rounded sites within certain areas and include karstification, subsidence, thermo-karstification and aeolian processes. Model assumptions take into consideration spatial and temporal randomness of occurrence, independent growth under occasional conditions, and cessation of growth given a ‘stop factor’, with transformation into degenerate sites. Based on these model assumptions, the following probabilities of impact by diffuse exogenous geological processes are solved for analytically. Firstly, the probability of impact on engineering constructions of round shape given the size of the diffuse processes and the known average impact risk; secondly, the probability of impact on small engineering constructions (points); and lastly, the probability of impact on linear engineering constructions of specified length. The computed impact probabilities are verified in various areas within Western Siberia.     

Health risk analysis of volcanic SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> hazard on Vulcano Island (Italy)

Since the last eruption of the Fossa crater in 1888–1890, intense volcanic degassing has been remaining on Vulcano Island of Sicily (Italy). Toxic sulfur dioxide (SO₂) of the solfataric action in this area represents, when inhaled, a permanent natural hazard harming humans. Approximately 500 permanent residents live and 15,000 tourists visit during the summer time the Porto village in the North of Vulcano Island. A cross-disciplinary fuzzy logic risk assessment has been conducted to evaluate health risks of human individuals exposed to higher SO₂-concentrations C over certain exposure times t. The simple approach, based on fuzzy set theory, explains health risks semantically by words rather than by numbers. Advantages of this approach are, first, experts, non-experts, decision makers, or the public are able to understand and communicate risk degrees by words without using numbers. Second, in comparison to other risk definitions, the risk is not equal to the vulnerability; it is based on the hazard (SO₂-gas clouds) and vulnerability (health effects) in combination. Third, risk levels can be still estimated even when limited or no statistical information is available, e.g., high SO₂-concentrations or long exposure times. Moreover, human health risks were determined for C−t-scenarios based on threshold values of the European Union and the World Health Organization. Independently, two additional methods were used to determine the proportions of the population who are exposed to levels of SO₂ at which health effects may be expected and also safety zones for civil protection around the degassing fields. In conclusion, SO₂-gas concentrations in many parts of Vulcano Island go beyond the proclaimed alert threshold of the European Union and the World Health Organization. For example, the results show that sensitive individuals, such as asthmatics, young children, or elderly people, should not be exposed at any time to the degassing areas in Porto di Levante and at the NE-rim of the Fossa crater. In contrast, healthy non-sensitive individuals should be exposed less than 10 min to the SO₂-clouds at these degassing areas, while hiking on the crater rim.     

Concentrations of trace elements in marine fish and its risk assessment in Malaysia

Concentrations of trace elements (V, Cr, Mn, Co, Cu, Zn, Ga, Se, Rb, Sr, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sn, Sb, Cs, Ba, Hg, Tl, Pb and Bi) were determined in muscle and liver of 12 species of marine fish collected from coastal areas in Malaysia. Levels of V, Cr, Mn, Co, Cu, Zn, Ga, Sr, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sn, Ba and Pb in liver were higher than those in muscle, whereas Rb and Cs concentrations showed the opposite trend. Positive correlations between concentrations in liver and muscle were observed for all the trace elements except Cu and Sn. Copper, Zn, Se, Ag, Cd, Cs and Hg concentrations in bigeye scads from the east coast of the Peninsular Malaysia were higher than those from the west, whereas V showed the opposite trend. The high concentration of V in the west coast might indicate oil contamination in the Strait of Malacca. To evaluate the health risk to Malaysian population through consumption of fish, intake rates of trace elements were estimated on the basis of the concentrations of trace elements in muscle of fish and daily fish consumption. Some specimens of the marine fish had Hg levels higher than the guideline value by US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), indicating that consumption of these fish at the present rate may be hazardous to Malaysian people. To our knowledge, this is the first study on multielemental accumulation in marine fish from the Malaysian coast.     

渤海中部和胶辽海峡地震复发模式和地震危险性

根据历史地震资料分析渤海中部与胶辽海峡地震周期模式。 时间可预测模式比滑动可预测模式更接近胶辽海峡历史地震的时间序列特征。 按时间可预测模型外推, 胶辽海峡下次强震可能发生在 21世纪初期。渤中地区历史地震序列特征复杂,一些关键地震的震级修订造成预测模型改变。使渤中地震发生时间的不确定性增大,不利于渤海地震长期预测。影响长期预测准确性的主要因素是历史地震震级的可靠性、准确性,直接影响复发模型的建立。     

新时期广佛都市圈工业空间拓展的基础条件探析

回顾广佛都市圈工业发展的历史轨迹,采用工业发展区位商从宏观和中观的角度对其工业类型、工业企业规模和工业行业等分析工业空间拓展基础条件,由此把握圈域内的工业体系结构与空间布局的现状特点,提出了新发展背景下工业空间拓展的新路向.     

Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: A Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs

Bayesian belief networks are finding increasing application in adaptive ecosystem management where data are limited and uncertainty is high. The combined effect of multiple stressors is one area where considerable uncertainty exists. Our study area, the Great Barrier Reef is simultaneously data-rich – concerning the physical and biological environment – and data-poor – concerning the effects of interacting stressors. We used a formal expert-elicitation process to obtain estimates of outcomes associated with a variety of scenarios that combined stressors both within and outside the control of local managers. There was much stronger consensus about certain stressor effects – such as between temperature anomalies and bleaching – than others, such as the relationship between water quality and coral cover. In general, the expert outlook for the Great Barrier Reef is pessimistic, with the potential for climate change effects potentially to overshadow the effects of local management actions.     

强雷区高层建筑雷电风险评估技术探讨

通过对某高层建筑物的雷电风险评估,雷电风险评估方法和从雷电环境特点、风险分量和损失类型、风险评估计算等方面对某高层建筑物的雷电风险评估,得到评估建筑物的雷电风险评估综合结论,并提出了具体的防护建议.