Multiple criteria decision making and decision support systems for flood risk management

Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) is a collection of methodologies to compare, select, or rank multiple alternatives that typically involve incommensurate attributes. MCDM is well-suited for eliciting and modeling the flood preferences of stakeholders and for improving the coordination among flood agencies, organizations and affected citizens. A flood decision support system (DSS) architecture is put forth that integrates the latest advances in MCDM, remote sensing, GIS, hydrologic models, and real-time flood information systems. The analytic network process (ANP) is discussed with application to short-term flood management options for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. It is shown that DSS and MCDM can improve flood risk planning and management under uncertainty by providing data displays, analytical results, and model output to summarize critical flood information.     

Is there a Human Health Hazard from Microcystins in the Drinking Water Supply?

Microcystins are cyclic heptapeptide toxins produced by a range of cyanobacterial genera. These cyanobacteria occur naturally in drinking water reservoirs subject to eutrophication, and in rivers and natural lakes. Because of the diversity of organisms, the toxins occur, from oligo‐mesotrophic lakes in North Temperate latitudes, to hypertrophic tropical ponds. The toxins are responsible for numerous cases of injury and death of domestic animals, and human poisoning from drinking water. The initial poisoning includes hepatic cell death. This leads to secondary effects from liver deficiency, including jaundice and photosensitisation. The toxic effects are largely due to inhibition of phosphatase enzymes, acting to regulate protein phosphorylation. The consequences include structural damage, apoptosis and, at lower concentrations, cell cycle effects and tumour promotion. As there is no clear evidence for direct carcinogenesis by microcystins, they are classed as non‐carcinogenic toxins in drinking water. Guideline Values for safe drinking water are derived from data for subchronic rodent toxicity, using the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (the highest dose giving no toxicity). To this dose are applied uncertainty factors, to calculate a Tolerable Daily Intake. On the basis of a standard bodyweight and water consumption the Guideline Value is determined for drinking water. For microcystin‐LR the WHO have set a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg/L for drinking water.     

Assessment of Cyto‐ and Genotoxic Effects of a Variety of Chemicals Using Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Saccharomyces cerevisiae as the most simple eukaryotic organism is broadly accepted as a laboratory model organism. For the detection of potential toxic effects of pure compounds and complex composed samples like wastewater a miniaturised short‐term in vitro cyto‐ and genotoxicity screening assay was developed. The assay based on genetically modified S. cerevisiae cells deleted in the prominent drug efflux transporters Pdr5, Snq2, and Yor1 that facilitate pleiotropic drug resistance. The yeast strain devoid of these proteins that mediate the efflux of structurally diverse hydrophobic compounds exhibited an increased sensitivity to a variety of organic compounds. The DNA damage inducible RAD54 promoter fused to a yeast optimized derivative of the GFP (green fluorescent protein) gene from the jelly fish Aequorea victoria served as an indicator of DNA damage in this strain. Various pure compounds including the direct‐acting genotoxins methyl‐N‐nitro‐N‐nitrosoguanidine (MNNG), 4‐nitroquinoline‐N‐oxide (4‐NQO), methyl methanesulfonate (MMS) and hydroxyurea as well as the heavy metals cadmium and chromium(VI), the insecticide lindane and the central nervous system stimulant caffeine were tested exhibiting dose dependent induction of green fluorescence. All compounds were in parallel examined for chronic toxicity. A bioassay detecting simultaneously geno‐ and cytotoxic effects of potential toxicants in a single assay can be an important tool with a variety of applications in environmental monitoring and aquatic ecotoxicology. By partial automation and miniaturisation to microtitration scale this bioassay enables sensitive and fast biomonitoring for a multitude of samples.     

Regional soil erosion risk mapping in Lebanon

Soil erosion by water is one of the major causes of land degradation in Lebanon. The problem has not yet been treated in detail although it affects vast areas. This study elaborates a model for mapping soil erosion risk in a representative area of Lebanon at a scale of 1:100,000 using a spatial database and GIS. First, three basic maps were derived: (1) runoff potential obtained from mean annual precipitation, soil-water retention capacity and soil/rock infiltration capacity; (2) landscape sensitivity based on vegetal cover, drainage density and slope; and (3) erodibility of rock and soil. Then two thematic maps were derived: potential sensitivity to erosion obtained from the runoff potential and landscape sensitivity maps, and erosion risk based on the potential erosion and erodibility maps. The risk map corresponds well to field observations on the occurrence of rills and gullies. The model used seems to be applicable to other areas of Lebanon, constituting a tool for soil conservation planning and sustainable management.     

红河干流大黑公水电站地质灾害危险性分析

大黑公水电站坝址及库区处于红河深大断裂带，面临诸多工程地质灾害地质问题，把研究区分为大、中、小三级5个不同地质灾害危险性区段，研究为电站建设预可研阶段工作提供指导性意见。     

中国西南山区沟谷暴雨泥石流危险度判定的基本原理和方法

本研究提出了通用于沟谷暴雨泥石流危险度判定的三项基本原理:主次因子原理、因子权重原理和定量赋值原理。首次提出了泥石流危险度的多因子综合定量判定模式和计算公式,为我国西南(西北)山区沟谷暴雨泥石流灾害评估提供了较为先进的实用方法。在云南部分地区的判定检验和应用实践表明,本法具有60%以上的可靠度。可应用于我国西南(西北)山区一切有可能发生暴雨泥石流的自然沟谷和已确认的暴雨泥石流沟谷。     

论产业部门内经济结构的调整和优化

剖析了我国产业部门经济结构和运行机制存在的问题及形成这些问题的原因,并对产业部门经济结构的调整和优化组合的途径进行了探讨。     

The investment-worth model: Concepts and methods for estimation of model parameters

A holistic investiment methodology defined as the investiment-worth model is developed to evaluate the risks and rewards of capital investments. The model demonstrates that the investment worth of a mining project is not the same for all firms in the industry. The attractiveness of a project varies with economic and risk-related characteristics of a firm.     

Economic benefit risk assessment of controlling land subsidence in Shanghai

Land subsidence, a major and well-known geological hazard in Shanghai, has caused serious losses. Based on past studies, the cost and benefit of the Shanghai's land subsidence hazard control were assessed and forecasted by risk assessment. An economic benefit-risk assessment was taken in order to control completely land subsidence and make rational safety elevations of the flood control wall. The result of risk assessment shows that the present 6.9-m elevation of the floodwall is not sufficient for the standard of occurring only once in a thousand years. After 200 years, the spring tide hazardous risk losses caused by land subsidence would amount to 49.73 million yuan per year. The proportion of expense in thoroughly controlling land subsidence to the economic benefit is 1:41.44; to construct the flood control wall to an elevation that would prevent inundation from a flood event, to reach the standard of occurring only once in a thousand years, and to avoid tide losses, the ratio of the investment of reducing tide hazard to the economic benefit should be 1:53.24.     

A method for assessing regional debris flow risk: an application in Zhaotong of Yunnan province (SW China)

Based on the definitions of the United Nations, the assessment of risk involves the evaluation of both hazard and vulnerability. This forms the basis of a generalized assessment model of debris flow risk. Hazard is a measure of the threatening degree of an extreme event and is expressed theoretically as a function of event magnitude and frequency of occurrence. Mathematically, it is the definite integral area under the magnitude–frequency curve. Based on the need for a model applicable in regions that lack data, a new method that incorporates theoretical concepts with empirical analysis is presented to calculate the regional hazardousness of debris flows. Debris flow hazard can be estimated from gully density, mean annual rainfall and percentage of cultivated land on steep slope. Vulnerability is defined as the potential total maximum losses due to a potential damaging phenomenon for a specified area and during a reference period. On a regional scale, it is dependent on the fixed assets, gross domestic product, land resources and population density, as well as age, education and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear, power-function model to compute the vulnerability degree is presented. An application of the proposed method to Zhaotong prefecture of Yunnan province, SW China, provides high accuracy and reasonable risk estimates. The highest risk of debris flow is in Zhaotong county with a value of 0.48; the lowest risk of debris flow is in Yanjin county with a value of 0.16. The other counties have debris flow risks ranging from 0.22 to 0.46. This provides an approach for assessing the regional debris flow risk and a basis for the formulation of a regional risk management policy in Zhaotong prefecture.