中国西北某煤化工区土壤中砷的人体健康风险及其安全阈值

本研究对中国西北某大型煤化工区的土壤样品进行采集。通过密闭消解后应用ICP CCT MS法对土壤样品中砷（As）含量进行测定,选取吸入土壤颗粒、皮肤接触、经口摄入3种主要的暴露途径,对煤化工区3个不同煤气化单元土壤中As的人体健康风险进行评价。结果表明,煤化工区土壤中As的单物质综合致癌风险为可接受水平的6~9倍,As的危害商则在可接受水平范围之内。煤化工区土壤中As的人体健康风险以经口摄入为主体暴露途径,该途径下致癌风险的贡献率占全部致癌风险的68.64%。在对各暴露途径致癌风险控制值计算的基础上选择致癌风险贡献率最高、控制值最低的经口摄入途径的控制值1.59 mg/kg作为该煤化工区土壤中As的参考安全阈值。结合中国煤化工行业发展特点、区域土壤中As的背景值水平、地区气候和地质特点等,考虑不同国家和地区As的人体健康风险可接受水平差异和可行性,才能综合确定特定煤化工区域土壤环境中As的安全阈值。     

岩溶塌陷危险性评价——以独山县交摆村为例

岩溶塌陷是多因素相互影响,成因机制较为复杂的地质灾害类型,在空间上具有隐蔽性,时间上具有突发性的特征。为有效预测、评价岩溶塌陷危险性,本文采用GRA -FAHP,从岩溶条件、覆盖层条件、地下水条件、工程活动条件等因素出发,选取14个主要影响指标构建定性与定量相结合的岩溶塌陷危险性评价模型,以贵州省独山县交摆村岩溶塌陷区为例对模型进行验证。结果表明,该模型对岩溶塌陷危险性评价与实际情况相符。可为今后岩溶塌陷危险性的预测、评价提供一些借鉴。     

Spatial distribution of cadmium and lead in the sediments of the western Anzali wetlands on the coast of the Caspian Sea (Iran)

Spatial distribution patterns of total cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb), their bioavailable fractions and total organic matter in sediment from Anzali wetlands are provided. Total sediment Pb was higher than Cd (34.95 versus 0.024 μg/g dry weight). The geoaccumulation index indicated that the sediment was “uncontaminated”, but some stations were categorized as “unpolluted” to “moderately polluted”. Less than 0.01 of Pb existed in exchangeable and carbonate fractions. The sum of exchangeable and carbonate-bound fractions of Cd was 42%, suggesting that Cd poses high risk to the aquatic ecosystems. Total Cd and Pb exhibited positive relationships with total organic matter. Considering spatial distribution maps of total and bioavailable fractions of metals suggested that high concentrations of metals does not necessarily indicate high bioavailable fraction. The methodologies we used in this study can be in more effective management of aquatic ecosystems, as well as ecological risk assessment of metals, and remediation programs.     

新疆天山山区干旱灾害综合风险评估与区划

以自然灾害风险四因子理论为基础,综合考虑研究区自然及社会经济情况,建立适合天山山区干旱灾害风险概念框架和指标体系,结合GIS技术进行了该地区干旱灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明：致灾因子危险性较高的区域是伊犁河谷及天山北坡一带,东疆地区和南疆西部危险性较低;承灾体脆弱性较高的区域为伊犁河谷和博州地区,吐鲁番、哈密及克州属于低脆弱区;孕灾环境敏感性较高地区主要分布在天山北坡的精河至吐鲁番一线、阿克苏地区西部、巴州北部等地,伊犁河谷、巴州北部、哈密市北部、南疆西部山区属低敏感区;防灾减灾能力整体表现为中东部高于西部区域;新疆天山山区干旱综合风险整体呈现出中部高、两端低的趋势,即中部的天山南北两侧干旱风险高于南疆西部和东疆地区。构建的评估模型总体反映了研究区旱灾综合风险水平,可为新疆天山草原灾害风险管理、应对气候变化、抗旱减灾行动提供参考。     

天然状态与饱和状态下的不稳定斜坡危险性对比分析

本文依据北京市房山区史家营乡大村涧村的调查成果,借助于有限元分析软件,建立居住区附近影响范围内的边坡三维工程地质力学模型和弹塑性模型,利用有限差分法分析,对单一矸石堆边坡和矸石-岩土混合型边坡,进行计算分析,对比分析了这两种边坡在天然状态下与饱和状态下的安全系数,最终进行了边坡危险性评价。     

四川盆地油气探区钻前工程选址风险分析与防控

本文依据企业安全环保有关规定和要求,结合四川盆地地形、地貌、水文和油气探区场地情况,分析了钻前工程选址风险程度,提出了防控措施建议。     

Rethinking urban water management: Experimentation as a way forward?

There is widespread acceptance regarding the need to transition towards more sustainable urban water practices. Supporting such a transition requires new governance frameworks that can accommodate complexity and uncertainty, and organisational cultures that embrace experimentation and learning. This empirically focused research paper examines how eleven, alternative local-scale experiments were initiated while operating in an unsympathetic regime. Furthermore, the perceptions of more than 150 urban water practitioners across Australia are presented, regarding the importance of and difficulty in undertaking experimentation in the urban water sector, and the necessary mechanisms for influencing a step change to sustainable urban water management practices. Interviewees revealed perceived limitations in experimenting with new technologies and practices when operating within a hierarchical and market-based governance paradigm. Also, industry conservatism and the dominant risk-based management approach both operate as significant constraints to promoting an experimentation culture, and are closely related to concerns about public health and financial implications. Overall, the research highlights the Australian urban water sector is willing to embrace learning-by-doing; however, a stronger emphasis on promoting an organisational and industry-wide culture of experimentation and learning is required. Policy implications for future water governance are discussed.     

Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change

Risk analysis and appraisal of the benefits of structural flood risk management measures such as embankments is well established. Here, a method to quantify, over extended timescales, the effectiveness of non-structural measures such as land use spatial planning, insurance and flood resilient construction is presented. The integrated approach couples socio-economic and climate change scenarios with long term land use modelling and flood risk analysis to generate maps and time series of expected annual damages. The analysis has been applied on a case study in the Thames Estuary in the UK. Stakeholders helped develop a number of scenarios that might lead to substantial changes in existing planning and insurance policies in the UK. The effectiveness of these changes was analysed and showed the substantial benefits in terms of reduction of future flood risks that are achievable with changes in planning policy, financial incentives and resilient property construction in the floodplain. Moreover, the reward can be increased through earlier action. Subsequently, the benefits of a range of policies are explored under the UK Foresight socio-economic scenarios. Different structural and non structural flood management interventions are tested and the results demonstrate that despite the potential for large increases in flood risk in the Thames Estuary, in all scenarios substantial flood risk reductions are possible. The effectiveness of non-structural measures is however sensitive to socio-economic changes and governance arrangements. The analysis described here will help to identify portfolios of non-structural and structural options that are robust to uncertainties.