Framework for the derivation of analytical fragility curves and life cycle cost analysis for non-seismically designed buildings

The quantification of the devastating effects of earthquakes on buildings can be achieved with the use of earthquake risk assessment. The formulation of strategies to minimise this risk is a complex task which relies on data regarding mainly the hazard, vulnerability and remaining life of the building. In this paper, the case study of Limassol municipality is presented. Initially, the building inventory and categorisation is defined followed by the selection of hazard scenarios and the development of analytical vulnerability curves. In the final part, risk assessment is performed leading to the formulation of retrofitting strategies for long term use.     

江西省空间运输联系演化特征

利用1990年以来江西省交通运输及相关统计数据,在分析和评价全省各地市客、货运量状况的基础上,运用地域非均衡系数、区域位势商指标,对江西省客、货流运输联系的空间演化特征及趋势进行了探讨。研究表明,全省在交通运输业快速发展的同时,客、货运输在空间分布上已由低水平的集中趋向均衡发展,客运的廊道效应初显,在京九铁路、浙赣铁路、昌九高速、赣粤高速沿线地区客流较为集中;货运重心南移,极化效应减弱,随着全省各地市的资源优势开始转为经济优势,货运地位出现有序演变。结合江西省经济发展所处阶段,对其运输化发展阶段进行了初步的分析和讨论。     

基于要素叠加的旅游景区经济影响域空间分异——以八达岭长城景区为例

本文在旅游景区的层次上,以旅游经济影响的空间范围——旅游经济影响域为视角进行研究和空间尺度推绎,探索在空间尺度上评估旅游景区对周边地区经济影响的程度和范围的定量分析方法,提出了旅游景区经济影响域的概念和关键指标界定,并分析了典型案例北京郊区经济辐射特点显著的景区——八达岭长城旅游区的辐射影响范围。在对八达岭周边的岔道、石佛寺等案例区域实施现场调研的基础上,获取了旅游就业、旅游收入和居民感知要素的旅游经济指标的实测值。然后运用旅游区位商模型、聚类分析等方法对样本数据进行总体趋势分析,从而分别测算出基于就业、收入和感知的八达岭景区旅游经济影响域的空间结构,最终通过要素叠加法刻画出旅游经济影响域的空间结构。     

Incorporation of Heavy Metals Bioavailability into Risk Characterization

The bioavailability of field‐aged Cd and Cu was calculated, and compared to the total concentrations determined by acid digestion. Only 0.60–4.15% for Cd and 0.59–9.43% for Cu were found to be bioavailable when determined by stomach‐phase extraction. The incorporation of bioavailability reduced more than 90% of the calculated risk of the metals at the site of study. It should be noted that such a reduction may not be generalized and the site‐specific bioavailability needs to be determined case by case.     

Vulnerability of floating tunnel shafts for increasing earthquake loading

Fragility curves constitute the cornerstone in seismic risk evaluations and performance-based earthquake engineering. They describe the probability of a structure to experience a certain damage level for a given earthquake intensity measure, providing a relationship between seismic hazard and vulnerability. In this paper a numerical approach is applied to derive fragility curves for tunnel shafts built in clays, a component that is found in several critical infrastructure such as urban metro networks, airport facilities or water and waste water projects. The seismic response of a representative tunnel shaft is assessed using tridimensional finite difference non-linear analyses carried out with the program FLAC^3D, under increasing levels of seismic intensity. A hysteretic model is used to simulate the soil non-linear behavior during the seismic event. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the soil-structure system response is accounted for in the analyses. The damage is defined based on the exceedance of the concrete wall shaft capacity due to the developed seismic forces. The fragility curves are estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration at a rock or stiff soil outcrop, based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed fragility models allows the characterization of the seismic risk of a representative tunnel shaft typology and soil conditions considering the associated uncertainties, and partially fill the gap of data required in performing a risk analysis assessment of tunnels shafts.     

Qualification of residential land from the viewpoint of liquefaction vulnerability

While the assessment of liquefaction potential by using borehole data has a long history since 1970s, its target users are still limited to professional engineers and experts. This situation is not favored by ordinary people who are seriously concerned with the reliability and preservation of their real estates during strong earthquakes. The demand of the people is that the liquefaction vulnerability of their residential land is precisely and clearly but concisely demonstrated so that people without engineering background can understand the real extent of risk. In this regard, the authors, under the governmental support, proposed a simple manifestation of the extent of liquefaction vulnerability of private houses in terms of the thickness of the surface unliquefiable crust and the vertical weighted average of the factor of safety or its equivalence. This achievement was made possible by introducing the ageing effects of soil on liquefaction resistance in addition to using geotechnical data base of subsoil conditions. During the work, it was found that existing borehole data may not be fully reliable and that experts who have sufficient knowledge of the local subsoil should assess the vulnerability. This requirement is satisfied by the qualification of special engineers that has been initiated by the Japanese Geotechnical Society in conjunction with several other institutions. The proposed method of subsoil qualification is used not only for individual residential land but also for regional hazard assessment.     

Climate threats,water supply vulnerability and the risk of a water crisis in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (Northeastern Mexico)

This paper evaluates the risk of a water crisis – a substantial, sudden reduction in water supply – in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA), posed by climate threats and the vulnerability of its water supply system. Our analysis of long-term precipitation, water supply and water availability data reveals that the MMA is highly vulnerable to recurring periods of exceptionally low precipitation and scarce surface water availability. We identify two episodes in the recent past (1998 and 2013) when the MMA water supply system almost collapsed as reservoirs neared depletion in the face of abnormally dry weather. Furthermore our climate projections point to warmer and drier future conditions for the region and consequently, heightened climate threats. We conclude that the risk of a water crisis in the MMA is substantial and probably will increase due to climate change. This establishes a clear and pressing need for a comprehensive package of adaptation measures to mitigate the consequences of a water crisis should one occur as well as to reduce the likelihood of such an event.