Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

The geographies of community disaster resilience

There is increasing policy and research interest in disaster resilience, yet the extant literature is still mired in definitional debates, epistemological orientations of researchers, and differences in basic approaches to measurement. As a consequence, there is little integration across domains and disciplines on community resilience assessment, its driving forces, and geographic variability. Using US counties as the study unit, this paper creates an empirically-based resilience metric called the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC) that is both conceptually and theoretically sound, yet, easy enough to compute for use in a policy context. A common set of variables were used to measure the inherent resilience of counties in the United States according to six different domains or capitals as identified in the extant literature – social, economic, housing and infrastructure, institutional, community, and environmental. Data were from public and freely accessible data sources. Counties in the US Midwest and Great Plains states have the most inherent resilience, while counties in the west, along the US-Mexico border, and along the Appalachian ridge in the east contain the least resilience. Further, it was found that inherent resilience is not the opposite of social vulnerability, but a distinctly different construct both conceptually and empirically. While understanding the overall variability in resilience, the BRIC is easily deconstructed to its component parts to provide guidance to policy makers on where investments in intervention strategies may make a difference in the improvement of scores. Such evidence-based research has an opportunity to influence public policy focused on disaster risk.     

基于新视角的震害分析——以四川长宁6.0级地震为例

四川长宁6.0级地震发生后,作者第一时间前往地震现场,获得第一手震害资料。基于“散、脆、偏、单”评估法,对当地建筑物震害特点和成灾机理进行深入剖析,并提出整治措施。实际震害显示,当前我国城乡建筑亟待解决的问题是“散”和“脆”;学校建筑和底商结构在此次地震中仍表现出诸多抗震不利问题,集中体现在因填充墙布置不合理导致的“偏”;高层建筑主体结构虽在地震后保存完好,但填充墙破坏较重,修缮费用较高。震害调查结果警醒行业人员需围绕实际震害特点精准发力,优化结构概念设计,全面提升抗震能力,推动韧性城乡建设。     

Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept

With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations.     

Knowing, farming and climate change adaptation in North-Central Namibia

The agro-ecological knowledge held by Ovambo farmers in North Central Namibia has, for centuries, given them resilience to high levels of climate variability and associated impacts. New research, conducted in North Central Namibia, suggests that knowledge co-production between farmers and agricultural extension workers may, in addition, strengthen adaptive capacity to future climate change. However, this useful kind of knowledge co-production is far from automatic, and indeed the conditions which make it more likely to happen are not well understood. This paper explores agro-ecological knowledge in North Central Namibia as adaptive capacity, and suggests avenues for better conceptualising and understanding the conditions for adaptive capacity-enhancing knowledge co-production.     

Climatic change and rainfall patterns: Effects on semi-arid plant communities of the Iberian Southeast

The structure and functioning of semi-arid ecosystems are strongly influenced by precipitation patterns. Water availability in such environments is highly pulsed, and discrete rainfall events interspersed with drought periods are important components of the annual water supply. Plant communities do not only respond to rainfall quantity, but also to variations in time, so that relatively small changes in rainfall frequency (i.e., pulsed inputs) may have strong effects on communities. Within the Mediterranean basin, climate change models forecast a decrease in mean annual precipitation and more extreme events (i.e., less rainy days and longer drought periods between events), along with seasonal changes. However, little is known on the consequences of these future precipitation changes on plant communities, especially in semi-arid environments. Here, we summarize the few experiments that have manipulated rainfall patterns in arid and semi-arid areas worldwide, and introduce the first results of a pioneer, long-term rainfall exclusion in the semi-arid southeast region of the Iberian Peninsula. The experiment is not only manipulating the amount of rainfall, but also its frequency and seasonal distribution in a grassland-shrubland in the Tabernas desert (Almería, Spain). This work monitored the effect of precipitation changes on different ecosystem processes for five years, at the species and community level, concluding that this plant community (as other communities studied in the same area) exhibited great resilience to changes in rainfall availability, likely caused by plant adaptation to large intra- and inter-annual precipitation variability.     

Integrating complexity in the management of human-wildlife encounters

The unpredictability of human behavior toward wildlife, coupled with changes in human behavior over space and time, are integral challenges of today's wildlife managers to meet administrative mandates. These challenges are exacerbated by extensive urban development and human population growth along with recent successes in wildlife conservation, leading to increasing encounters, and conflicts, between humans and wildlife. Thus, wildlife management is increasingly concerned with managing the co-existence of people and wildlife in a diminishing wild. However, attempting to analyze human–wildlife encounters, or solve human–wildlife conflicts, continues to be problematic. No structured behavior theory exists on how to address these management challenges. This study is a first attempt to do so through assembling and analyzing existing social-psychological, human-environment, and human–wildlife behavior theories and models in regard to their relevance to human–wildlife encounters. We illustrate the need to move from individualistic social and ecological approaches to an integrated complexity-theory based approach. We argue that human–wildlife encounters can only be understood and modified toward resilient relationships when treated as a complex social-ecological system. Key factors identified across literature impacting formation of positive and negative perceptions and behavior decision-making during an encounter are: cognition and emotions formed through beliefs and experiences across scales, barriers and benefits to specific behavior choices, and social thresholds. Using this multi-disciplinary approach, models and theories are drawn upon to develop the Integrated Adaptive Behavior Model of human–wildlife encounters.     

Complex resource supply chains display higher resilience to simulated climate shocks

Global resource supply chains deliver products such as fish, rice and minerals from producers to consumers around the world, linking disparate regions and economies. These supply chains are increasingly exposed to the impacts of a changing climate, yet receive little attention relative to the study of the production phase. Too often, business learns from experience if and how their supply chains can withstand and recover from climate shocks with little insight on proactively developing climate resilient supply chains. We use a network-based simulation approach to estimate the resilience of supply chains, particularly to disruption experienced during climate-related extreme events. We consider supply chain examples from three Australian resource industries – fisheries, agriculture and mining – that have experienced climate shocks in recent years. We derive four supply chain indices – evenness, resilience, continuity of supply and climate resilience – to estimate the performance of simple and complex supply chains in each industry. As with ecological systems, we show that complex supply chains with a large number of nodes and links are more resilient to disruption. Critically, all chains, regardless of their complexity, will have diminished resilience as climate disruptions become more frequent. This highlights the importance of considering the broader economic benefits of diversified chains, leading to risk reduction and improved design post-disruption. It also reinforces the importance of a systems approach to risk management in supply chains, particularly in considering adaptation options for addressing direct and indirect impacts on the chain as well as the global challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.     

How access to Maine⬢s fisheries has changed over a quarter century: The cumulative effects of licensing on resilience

We describe how the evolution of the licensing system for commercial fisheries in Maine has progressively limited the ability of both fishers and the State to respond to changing environmental circumstances. Over the twenty-five year period from 1990 to 2014 new licenses were created at the rate of about 0.6 per year. The changes that have occurred have not been the result of a strategic policy agenda that was set to decrease fishers⬢ access, but rather the consequence of multiple decades of policy interventions that have sought to improve the socioeconomic and ecological productivity of individual fisheries. However, the cumulative effect has limited the flexibility of individual fishers and created strong economic interests that are incompatible with shifts towards ecosystem-based management. We use this finding to contribute to the literature on resilience, with a specific focus on the relationship between adaptive management and sustainability.     

Manmade Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane Wilma

Climate change and resultant coastal erosion and flooding have been the focus of many recent analyses. Often these studies overlook the effects of manmade modifications to the coastline which have reduced its resilience to storm events. In this investigation, we integrate previous reports, historical photo analysis, field work, and the application of numerical models to better understand the effects of Wilma, the most destructive hurricane to affect Cancun, Mexico. Huge waves (of significant height, >12 m), long mean wave periods (>12 s), devastating winds (>250 km/h), and powerful currents (>2 m/s) removed >7 million cubic meters of sand from the Cancun beach system, leaving 68% of the sub‐aerial beach as bedrock, and the rest considerably eroded. Numerical simulations show that the modifications to the barrier island imposed by tourist infrastructure have considerably increased the rigidity of the system, increasing the potential erosion of the beach under extreme conditions. If there were no structural barriers, a series of breaches could occur along the beach, allowing exchange of water and alleviating storm surge on other sections of the beach. If the effects caused by anthropogenic changes to Cancun are ignored, the analysis is inaccurate and misleading.