Livelihood diversification: continuity and change in the Sahel

Livelihood diversification can be crucial for poor rural households in the African Sahel. Migration is a common diversification strategy during the dry season, but there are also areas with significant strategies on the farm, such as incomes from gum and resins. Sudan is a country where the income from gum arabic, the gum from the Acacia senegal tree, has played a large economic role for smallholders for generations, but there are signs of a declining production which is detrimental if people have no alternative incomes. The results showed that in parts of the country, the 1984 drought caused an event-driven change resulting in a discontinuation of production. However, in other parts of the country, the agricultural system providing gum arabic proved to be more resilient to the drought and the incomes from gum arabic still play a large role. The results illustrated a complexity of driving forces, regional differences and a large variability in incomes between households. Some causes were indirect such as prices, drought, precipitation and locust, whereas the others were direct and hence more controllable by households. This study underlined the direct causes, such as how labour input is prioritised between livelihood activities, which have not been given as much attention in previous literature. Secondly, the need for a holistic view of livelihoods is underlined in order to understand the future of gum arabic production. Empirical data were collected from extensive fieldwork.

Resilience to disaster: Evidence from American wellbeing data

As the severity and frequency of extreme weather events become more pronounced with climate change and the increased habitation of at-risk areas, it is important to understand people’s resilience to them. We quantify resilience by estimating how disasters in the US impacted individual wellbeing in the initial weeks and months post-disaster, and whether the effect sizes differed by individual- and county-level factors. The methodological approach contrasts changes in wellbeing in counties affected by disasters with that of residents in unaffected counties of the same state. We find that people’s hedonic wellbeing is reduced by approximately 6% of a standard deviation in the first two weeks following the event, with the effect diminishing rapidly thereafter. The negative effects are driven by White, older, and economically advantaged sub-populations, who exhibit less resilience. We find no evidence that existing indices of community resilience moderate impacts. Our conclusion is that most people in the US have a resilient response to extreme weather events.     

Shocks to fish production: Identification,trends, and consequences

Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system.     

Refusing resilience: the racialization of risk and resilience

In this short essay debating the politics of resilience, I draw from the circulation of resilience discourses following the Milwaukee Uprising of 2016 to argue that critiques of resilience planning in such cities of the global west must be situated within the context of racial capitalism. I further contend that resilience-informed urban projects are often underpinned by an uncritical embrace of notions of public safety and crime that bolster racialized logics of securitization and carcerality. I conclude by suggesting that rather than seeking to recuperate resilience, we instead should refuse it, embracing planning approaches that emphasize structural change rather than adaption.     

Social memory and resilience in New Orleans

A key concept in resilience studies is that human societies can learn from hazard events and use their accumulated social memory to better contend with future catastrophes. This article explores the deliberate referral to historical records complied after Hurricane Betsy in 1965 and how they were used to prepare for tropical storms at the time of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Despite proclamations that Louisiana would not repeat its mistakes, hazards planners seriously neglected the historical record.     

Urban locations and Black Metropolis resilience in the Great Depression

Motivated by theoretical arguments about ethnicity and economics and by historical research on urban black communities in the United States, this paper investigates the resilience of the early twentieth-century Black Metropolis. The study tests hypotheses about changes during the Great Depression (1930–1940) in the advantages of various cities as locations of black communities’ ethnic economies, analyzing Census data on blacks’ representation in occupations reflecting the Black Metropolis’s professional, entrepreneurial, and cultural media pursuits. There is mixed support for the hypothesis that the nationally dominant urban centers of New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia had the most resilient Black Metropolises, a finding that casts doubt on claims that black communities in such key places enjoyed exceptionally favorable locational advantages. Yet, the results support the hypothesis that northern cities were, overall, more resilient locations than southern cities, particularly for black professionals and entrepreneurs, affirming the argument that the urban North’s Black Metropolises were vital economic opportunity centers for these black communities’ upper- and middle-classes.     

Can we learn from the past? Towards better analogies and historical inference in society-environmental change research

In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies’ responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action.To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.     

Upscaling the resilience assessment through comparative analysis

Resilience is the capacity of any system to maintain its function, structure and identity despite disturbances. Assessing resilience has been elusive due to high levels of abstraction that are difficult to empirically test, or the lack of high quality data required once appropriate proxies are identified. Most resilience assessments are limited to specific situation arenas, making comparision one of the unresolved challenges. Here we show how leveraging comparative analysis can provide insights on how Arctic communities (N = 40) can best deal with social and environmental change. We found that the capacity to self-organize, and nurturing diversity are sufficient conditions for Arctic communities whose livelihoods have been resilient, or for communities whose livelihoods have been transformed. Our study provides an alternative perspective on how to assess resilience by leveraging comparsion across cases. It also identify governance patways to support adaptations and transformations in the Arctic, a geography with some of the most dramatic social and natural challenges to come.     

Climate discourses as barriers to rights-based adaptive social protection: How historical politics shape Ethiopia’s climate-smart safety net

A rights-based approach to ‘adaptive social protection’ holds promise as a policy measure to address structural dimensions of vulnerability to climate change such as inequality and marginalisation, yet it has been failing to gain traction against production and growth-oriented interventions. Through the lens of Ethiopia’s flagship Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP), we trace the role of climate discourses in impeding progress towards socially transformative outcomes, despite the importance of social protection for building resilience. We argue that intertwining narratives of moral leadership and green growth associated with Ethiopia’s national climate strategy shape how the PSNP is rendered ‘climate-smart’. These narratives, however, are embedded within politics that have historically underpinned the country’s drive for modernisation and growth-oriented policies, particularly in dealing with food insecurity. Like pre-existing narratives on development and the environment, they rationalise the presence of a strong central State and its control over natural resources and rural livelihoods. The PSNP is thus conditioned to favour technocratic, productivist approaches to adapting to climate change that may help reproduce, rather than challenge the entrenched politics at the root of vulnerability. Ultimately, this case study demonstrates how climate discourses risk diluting core rights-based dimensions of social protection, contradicting efforts to address the structural dimensions of vulnerability to climate change.     

Governing resilience building in Thailand's tourism-dependent coastal communities: Conceptualising stakeholder agency in social-ecological systems

In current scientific efforts to harness complementarity between resilience and vulnerability theory, one response is an ‘epistemological shift’ towards an evolutionary, learning based conception of the ‘systems-actor’ relation in social-ecological systems. In this paper, we contribute to this movement regarding the conception of stakeholder agency within social-ecological systems. We examine primary evidence from the governance of post-disaster recovery and disaster risk reduction efforts in Thailand's coastal tourism-dependent communities following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. Through an emerging storyline from stakeholders, we construct a new framework for conceptualising stakeholder agency in social-ecological systems, which positions the notion of resilience within a conception of governance as a negotiated normative process. We conclude that if resilience theory is proposed as the preferred approach by which disaster risk reduction is framed and implemented, it needs to acknowledge much more explicitly the role of stakeholder agency and the processes through which legitimate visions of resilience are generated.