华北地区强震前三个月地震活动异常及初步综合评判

对华北地区1970年以来发生的5级以上地震逐个进行分析研究，总结了每次地震震前的异常地震活动特点，进而寻找强震前三个月共性的地震活动异常特征。最后用物元分析方法，对地震强度预测综合评判模型进行了初步研究，并建立了初步的综合物元预测模型。     

Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of reservoir induced seismicity

Introduction Prediction of RIS includes earlier stage prediction and seismic tendency prediction. In earlier stage, the prediction is to predict the possibility and maximum magnitude of RIS before reservoir are built up. It is made up on the basis of geological condition and the definite method and the statistical model method are usually used. The definite method by analogy with geological condi-tion is to analyze and sum up the main conditions of RIS. Using the main conditions compared w…     

Study on correlativity among some seismological prediction indexes related to earthquake frequency or energy

Introduction Study of seismicity indexes and prediction methods is an important aspect of earthquake pre-diction research. In recent years, with more and more seismicity indexes being presented and de-veloped, a question is naturally put forward that which ones among so many seismicity indexes are dependent and which ones are independent when they are used to describe seismicity changes. The author studied the correlativities among several non-linear prediction indexes, such as capacity dimens…     

The Holocene paleoseismicity of the Aremogna-Cinque Miglia Fault (Central Italy)

Geomorphic and trench investigations are used toanalyze the seismic potential of the Aremogna-CinqueMiglia fault, an active N- to NW-trending, W-facingnormal fault located in Central Apennines. Wereconstructed a complex 16 km-long, as much as 6m-high, fault scarp that displaces late Holocenesediments in the Aremogna and Cinque Miglia basins.The complex surface expression of the fault, withdouble sub-parallel scarp sections, a change in strikeof about 40^° and local complexity showingimportant horizontal component, appears to becontrolled by the presence of older tectoniclineaments. We opened two trenches across the faultscarp, used a quarry exposure, and reinterpreted atrench opened by Frezzotti and Giraudi (1989), to findthe geological evidence for three Holocene surfacefaulting earthquakes on the Aremogna-Cinque Migliafault. Based on radiocarbon dating and stratigraphicand climatic considerations timing of the events isconstrained between 800 B.C. and 1030 A.D., between3735 and 2940 B.C., and between 3540 and 5000 B.C.. The most recent event is not reported in the twomillennia-long Italian Catalogues of HistoricalSeismicity. We suggest that the most recent eventcould be one of the Middle Age earthquakes of unknownorigin for which several felt reports exist in Rome.Moreover, we also consider the hypothesis that one ofthe shocks of the ambiguous September 1349 earthquakesequence could be the Aremogna-Cinque Miglia mostrecent event. Anyway, based on historicalconsideration we indicate A.D. 1349 as the youngestpossible age for this event. Finally, we suggest theAremogna-Cinque Miglia fault is part of the easternsecondary Apennines seismogenic belt. The faultparameters we obtain for this fault (i.e., recurrence interval longer than 2000 yr, verticallong-term slip rate of 0.3–0.5 mm/yr and m 6.5–6.8 forthe event) can be used as a first hand reference tocharacterize the seismic behavior of other faultsalong this section of the Apennines.     

Anomalously high b-values in the South Flank of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii: evidence for the distribution of magma below Kilauea's East rift zone

The pattern of b-value of the frequency–magnitude relation, or mean magnitude, varies little in the Kaoiki-Hilea area of Hawaii, and the b-values are normal, with b=0.8 in the top 10 km and somewhat lower values below that depth. We interpret the Kaoiki-Hilea area as relatively stable, normal Hawaiian crust. In contrast, the b-values beneath Kilauea's South Flank are anomalously high (b=1.3–1.7) at depths between 4 and 8 km, with the highest values near the East Rift zone, but extending 5–8 km away from the rift. Also, the anomalously high b-values vary along strike, parallel to the rift zone. The highest b-values are observed near Hiiaka and Pauahi craters at the bend in the rift, the next highest are near Makaopuhi and also near Puu Kaliu. The mildest anomalies occur adjacent to the central section of the rift. The locations of the three major and two minor b-value anomalies correspond to places where shallow magma reservoirs have been proposed based on analyses of seismicity, geodetic data and differentiated lava chemistry. The existence of the magma reservoirs is also supported by magnetic anomalies, which may be areas of dike concentration, and self-potential anomalies, which are areas of thermal upwelling above a hot source. The simplest explanation of these anomalously high b-values is that they are due to the presence of active magma bodies beneath the East Rift zone at depths down to 8 km. In other volcanoes, anomalously high b-values correlate with volumes adjacent to active magma chambers. This supports a model of a magma body beneath the East Rift zone, which may widen and thin along strike, and which may reach 8 km depth and extend from Kilauea's summit to a distance of at least 40 km down rift. The anomalously high b-values at the center of the South Flank, several kilometers away from the rift, may be explained by unusually high pore pressure throughout the South Flank, or by anomalously strong heterogeneity due to extensive cracking, or by both phenomena. The major b-value anomalies are located SSE of their parent reservoirs, in the direction of motion of the flank, suggesting that magma reservoirs leave an imprint in the mobile flank. We hypothesize that the extensive cracking may have been acquired when the anomalous parts of the South Flank, now several kilometers distant from the rift zone, were generated at the rift zone near persistent reservoirs. Since their generation, these volumes may have moved seaward, away from the rift, but earthquakes occurring in them still use the preexisting complex crack distribution. Along the decollement plane at 10 km depth, the b-values are exceptionally low (b=0.5), suggesting faulting in a more homogeneous medium.     

Multiple ruptures for Long Valley microearthquakes: a link to volcanic tremor?

Despite several episodes of ground deformation and intense seismic activity starting in 1978, the Long Valley, California, volcanic area has not produced clearly recognized volcanic tremor. Instead, a variety of atypical microearthquakes have been recorded during these episodes, including events dominated by low-frequency (long-period) or mixed high and low-frequency (hybrid) signals. During a 1997 episode, a number of unusual microearthquakes occurred within a temporary 40-station seismic network surrounding the Casa Diablo area, allowing the events to be precisely located and analyzed as a function of azimuth, offset, and source characteristics. Eight prime examples lie within two, 7 km-deep clusters of seismicity separated by about 1 km, with four events in each cluster. Empirical Green's function deconvolution shows that these events are composed of two to three sub-events, the sub-events consisting of ordinary (single rupture, double-couple) microearthquakes. The delay times between the sub-events are constant within each cluster, equaling 0.092 s in one and 0.06 s in the other. Events from other clusters show similar delays. The signal interference produced by the closely spaced sub-events gives rise to modulated, delay-dependent source spectra. The regularity of the delays suggests that the sub-events are being triggered by a fixed length and/or time scale process, an example being the length/inflation rate of a magmatic or hydrothermal flow structure. With continued action of the triggering process, the sub-events could proliferate and evolve into observable volcanic tremors at Mammoth.     

Crustal structure and local seismicity in Colombia

Using P-wave travel time data from local seismicity, the crustal structure ofthe central and southern part of Colombia was determined. A very stableand narrow range of possible velocity models for the region was obtainedusing travel time inversion. This range of models was tested with earthquakelocations to select the best velocity model. The 1D velocity modelproposed has five layers over a halfspace, with interfaces at depths of 4,25, 32, 40 and 100 km and P-wave velocities of 4.8, 6.6, 7.0, 8.0, 8.1and 8.2 km/sec, respectively. According to this model the Moho lies at32 km depth on average. For P-waves, the station corrections range from–0.62 to 0.44 sec and for S-wave they range from –1.17 to 0.62 sec.These low variations in station residuals indicate small lateral velocitychanges and therefore the velocity model found should be well suited forearthquake locations and future starting model for 3D tomography studies.Using this new velocity model, the local earthquakes were relocated. Theshallow seismicity, < 30 km, clearly shows the borders betweentectonic plates and also the main fault systems in the region. The deepseismicity, > 80 km, shows two subduction zones in the country: theCauca subduction zone with a strike of N120^°E, dip of 35^°and thickness of 35 km, and the Bucaramanga subduction zone which has,for the northern part, a strike of N103^°E, dip of 27^° andthickness undetermined and, for the southern part, a strike ofN115^°E, dip of 40^° and thickness of 20 km. Based ondifferences of thickness of brittle crust in the subducted slab and spatialdistribution of the seismicity, the Cauca and Bucaramanga subduction zonesseem to represent independent processes. The Cauca subduction seems tobe connected to the process of the Nazca plate being subducted under theNorth Andes Block. In the Bucaramanga subduction zone, the transitionbetween southern and northern parts and changes in geometry of the slabseem to be gradual and there is no evidence of a tear in the slab, howeverthe local seismicity does not allow us to determine which plate or plates arebeing subducted. The Bucaramanga nest appears to be included into thesubducted slab.     

云南地区7级地震前中强震活动的空间平静图象

本研究了云南地区１５００年以来Ｍ≥７级地震前３０年内震中周围１５０ｋｍ范围内５－６级地震的空间分布图象，震前平静是一个共同的特点，并大致可以分为三种类型：平静型－７级强震在平静７－１８年后突然发生；平静活跃型－在平静多年后，首先发生早期信号震，再发生７级强震；活跃型－平静多年后中强震持续活动十几年，接着发生强震。     

1995年10—12月的全球地震动态

１９９５年第四季度。全球地震活动仍保持显著的高水平，地域分布比较广泛，活动强度与第二、第三季度相近。这显示１９９５年高水平活动的年份。美洲在智利地震之后发生墨西哥地震。