Seismotectonic models and CN algorithm: The case of Italy

The CN algorithm is utilized here both for the intermediate term earthquake prediction and to validate the seismotectonic model of the Italian territory. Using the results of the analysis, made through the CN algorithm and taking into account the seismotectonic model, three main areas, one for Northern Italy, one for Central Italy and one for Southern Italy, are defined. Two transition areas between the three main areas are delineated. The earthquakes which occurred in these two areas contribute to the precursor phenomena identified by the CN algorithm in each main area.     

A determination of source properties of large intraplate earthquakes in Alaska

Historically, large and potentially hazardous earthquakes have occurred within the interior of Alaska. However, most have not been adequately studied using modern methods of waveform modeling. The 22 July 1937, 16 October 1947, and 7 April 1958 earthquakes are three of the largest events known to have occurred within central Alaska (M _s =7.3,M _s =7.2 andM _s =7.3, respectively). We analyzed teleseismic body waves to gain information about the focal parameters of these events. In order to deconvolve the source time functions from teleseismic records, we first attempted to improve upon the published focal mechanisms for each event. Synthetic seismograms were computed for different source parameters, using the reflectivity method. A search was completed which compared the hand-digitized data with a suite of synthetic traces covering the complete parameter space of strike, dip, and slip direction. In this way, the focal mechanism showing the maximum correlation between the observed and calculated traces was found. Source time functions, i.e., the moment release as a function of time, were then deconvolved from teleseismic records for the three historical earthquakes, using the focal mechanisms which best fit the data. From these deconvolutions, we also recovered the depth of the events and their seismic moments. The earthquakes were all found to have a shallow foci, with depths of less than 10 km.The 1937 earthquake occurred within a northeast-southwest band of seismicity termed the Salcha seismic zone (SSZ). We confirm the previously published focal mechanism, indicating strike-slip faulting, with one focal plane parallel to the SSZ which was interpreted as the fault plane. Assuming a unilateral fault model and a reasonable rupture velocity of between 2 and 3 km/s, the 21 second rupture duration for this event indicates that all of the 65 km long SSZ may have ruptured during this event. The 1947 event, located to the south of the northwest-southeast trending Fairbanks seismic zone, was found to have a duration of about 11 seconds, thus indicating a rupture length of up to 30 km. The rupture duration of the 1958 earthquake, which occurred near the town of Huslia, approximately 400 km ENE of Fairbanks, was found to be about 9 seconds. This gives a rupture length consistent with the observed damage, an area of 16 km by 64 km.     

信息增益在地震趋势估计中的应用

从熵中信息增益的定义出发，将地震中的能量和频度作为一个整体考虑，研究了全球１９００－１９９２斫Ｍ≥６．０地震的信息增益。结果表明，强震前有信息增益减小的特点。信息增益方法的引入，为利用中小地震进入地震跟踪预报提供了一个新途径。     

Tectonic analysis of mine tremor mechanisms from the Upper Silesian Coal Basin

Fault network of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB) is built of sets of strike-slip, oblique-slip and dip-slip faults. It is a typical product of force couple which acts evenly with the parallel of latitude, causing horizontal and anti-clockwise movement of rock-mass. Earlier research of focal mechanisms of mine tremors, using a standard fault plane solution, has shown that some events are related to tectonic directions in main structural units of the USCB. An attempt was undertaken to analyze the records of mine tremors from the period 1992–1994 in the selected coal fields. The digital records of about 200 mine tremors with energy larger than 1×10⁴ J (M _L >1.23) were analyzed with SMT software for seismic moment tensor inversion. The decomposition of seismic moment tensor of mine tremors was segmented into isotropic (I) part, compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) part and double-couple (DC) part. The DC part is prevalent (up to 70%) in the majority of quakes from the central region of the USCB. A group of mine tremors with large I element (up to 50%) can also be observed. The spatial orientation of the fault and auxiliary planes were obtained from the computations for the seismic moment DC part. Study of the DC part of the seismic moment tensor made it possible for us to separate the group of events which might be acknowledged to have their origin in unstable energy release on surfaces of faults forming a regional structural pattern. The possible influence of the Cainozoic tectonic history of the USCB on the recent shape of stress field is discussed.     

模糊空间分维在地震活动时空演化研究中的应用

本文把模糊分维方法应用于地震活动时空演化研究,当中.给出了强震和中强震活动模糊空间分维的确定方法,并通过计算不同小区的模糊空间分维随时间的变化曲线来研究地震活动的时空演化特征.以华北及西南地区地震活动性时空演化图象为例进行了具体分析研究.所得结果表明,大震前地震活动的模糊空间分维D_0~(2)要出现下降异常,并且大地震发生在D_0~(2)减小的地区(西南)或先减小而后达到高值(华北)的地区.     

新疆强震活动与环境因子预报

本文运用新疆历史地震资料,分析了该地区的强震时空分布及地震活跃周期和活动图象,并探讨了强震活动与空间环境因子的关系,这无疑对新疆强震活动趋势分析和该地区强震中长期预报具有较重要的意义。     

The reservoir-associated earthquakes of April 1983 in western Thailand: Source modeling and implications for induced seismicity

On 22 April 1983, a very large area of Thailand and part of Burma were strongly shaken by a rare earthquake (m _b=5.8,M _s=5.9). The epicenter was located at the Srinagarind reservoir about 190 km northwest of Bangkok, a relatively stable continental region that experienced little previous seismicity. The main shock was preceded by some foreshocks and followed by numerous aftershocks. The largest foreshock ofm _b=5.2 occurred 1 week before the main shock, and the largest aftershock ofm _b=5.3 took place about 3 hours after the main shock. Focal mechanisms of the three largest events in this earthquake sequence have been studied by other seismologists using firts-motion data. However, the solutions for the main shock and the largest aftershock showed significant inconsistency with known surface geology and regional tectonics. We reexamined the mechanisms of these three events by using teleseismicP-andS-waveforms and through careful readings ofP-wave first motions. The directions of theP axes in our study range from NNW-SSE to NNE-SSW, and nodal planes strike in the NW-SE to about E-W in agreement with regional tectonics and surface geology. The main shock mechanism strikes 255°, dips 48°, and slips 63.5°. The fault motions during the main shock and the foreshock are mainly thrust, while the largest aftershock has a large strike-slip component. The seismic moment and the stress drop of the mainshock are determined to be 3.86×10²⁴ dyne-cm and 180 bars, respectively. The occurrence of these thrust events appears to correlate with the unloading of the Srinagarind reservoir. The focal depths of the largest foreshock, the main shock, and the largest aftershock are determined to be 5.4 km, 8 km, and 22.7 km, respectively, from waveform modeling and relative location showing a downward migration of hypocenters of the three largest events during the earthquake sequence. Other characteristics of this reservoir-induced earthquake sequence are also discussed.     

Triggered earthquakes and deep well activities

Earthquakes can be triggered by any significant perturbation of the hydrologic regime. In areas where potentially active faults are already close to failure, the increased pore pressure resulting from fluid injection, or, alternatively, the massive extraction of fluid or gas, can induce sufficient stress and/or strain changes that, with time, can lead to sudden catastrophic failure in a major earthquake. Injection-induced earthquakes typically result from the reduction in frictional strength along preexisting, nearby faults caused by the increased formation fluid pressure. Earthquakes associated with production appear to respond to more complex mechanisms of subsidence, crustal unloading, and poroelastic changes in response to applied strains induced by the massive withdrawal of subsurface material. As each of these different types of triggered events can occur up to several years after well activities have begun (or even several years after all well activities have stopped), this suggests that the actual triggering process may be a very complex combination of effects, particularly if both fluid extraction and injection have taken place locally. To date, more than thirty cases of earthquakes triggered by well activities can be documented throughout the United States and Canada. Based on these case histories, it is evident that, owing to preexisting stress conditions in the upper crust, certain areas tend to have higher probabilities of exhibiting such induced seismicity.     

Statistical analysis of seismic data from north-western and western Argentina

Due to the process of subduction of the Nazca Plate, high seismic activity is observed near the Argentine Andean range between 21°S and 36°S. The new version of the Argentine Seismic Catalogue, which includes well-defined events during the period 1964–1989, allows us to perform an analysis of seismic risk.Earthquakes with epicenters in the provinces included in the north-western and western regions were studied using Gumbel III extreme value distribution. Modal extreme magnitudes and return periods were calculated for both regions and the results were compard with the ones obtained through the entire process techniques (both analytical and graphical).As a first study, we analyzed each province separately, after which mean values for each region were obtained. Modal values around 5–5.5 have been found and times of recurrence for events withm _b >6 of approximately 25 years were obtained.Also at CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Técnicas).