PREDICTING RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION WITH 2D MODEL FLOODSIM

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白山、丰满水库群实时洪水联合调度系统设计与开发

利用面向对象程序设计技术,在中文窗口平台下,设计开发了功能齐全、界面友好、操作灵活、信息丰富,具有很强实用性的白山、丰满水库群实时洪水联合调度系统,可迅速完成从实时遥测降雨信息的采集到两库产、汇流预报和洪水联合调度方案的制定、评价、选择的全过程,简要介绍了系统开发策略及系统设计中的一些主要关键技术及其实现过程,对开发其它水库及水库群防洪调度系统具有重要参考价值。     

乌什水病险水库的坝基灌浆处理与效果检测

新疆乌什水水库为注入式水库,由于坝基严重渗漏,被鉴定为C级病险库。因其具有重要的防洪和灌溉作用,必需对坝基进行防渗处理,以保证其正常安全运营。根据坝基的工程地质条件,在工程设计和施工中确定了坝基的加固防渗和帷幕灌浆原则,并且根据坝基不同岩性、不同透水性,采取不同的钻孔和灌浆施工工艺,探索出一套适合本工程的灌浆工艺。这保证了施工的顺利进行和和工程质量,提高了施工效率,同时节约了大量资金。灌浆完成后运用压水试验对固结灌浆和帷幕灌浆效果进行了验证,同时通过比较坝基实施治理措施前后渗漏量,以及对泉水和湿地的观测及观察等多种手段对帷幕灌浆质量进行检查,结果表明灌浆质量和灌浆效果良好,达到了坝基防渗的目的。     

喀腊塑克水库诱发地震浅析

采用判别标志、对比判断方法,尤其是概率分析方法对喀腊塑克水库诱发地震进行了分析。概率分析方法是利用诱震水库和未发震水库的统计资料,考虑了库深、库容、构造应力环境、断层活动性及诱震区介质条件5个因素,再利用概率统计中的贝叶斯公式建立了预测水库能否诱震的概率模型,最终计算出结果。另外,从库区断层活动性及断裂所通过的位置、库水深度及岩石坚硬程度等方面,分析出可能产生诱发该水库地震的位置。结合工作中的体会,提出评价水库诱发地震的步骤和方法。最终分析结果表明,喀腊塑克水库诱发地震的可能性不大。     

长江上游大型水库运用对三峡水库汛末蓄水影响的初步分析

三峡上游大型水库逐渐增多,上游水库在蓄水期内的集中蓄水明显削减了中下游径流,导致蓄水期内用水矛盾突出,也增加了三峡水库蓄不满的机率,影响三峡水库综合效益的发挥。通过分不同水平年模拟上游已建、在建和拟建水库的长系列运行,比较各控制站长系列径流与天然径流的差别,重点分析三峡水库蓄水期各站径流受上游大型水库运行的影响。同时,在所得模拟后长系列的基础上,对三峡水库按既定蓄水规则模拟蓄水计算,分析不同水平年三峡水库的蓄水受上游大型水库蓄水的影响程度。     

Prediction of diagenetic facies using well logs – A case study from the upper Triassic Yanchang Formation,Ordos Basin,China

Understanding diagenetic heterogeneity in tight sandstone reservoirs is vital for hydrocarbon exploration. As a typical tight sandstone reservoir, the seventh unit of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin (Chang 7 unit), central China, is an important oil-producing interval. Results of helium porosity and permeability and petrographic assessment from thin sections, X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and cathodoluminescence analysis demonstrate that the sandstones have encountered various diagenetic processes encompassing mechanical and chemical compaction, cementation by carbonate, quartz, clay minerals, and dissolution of feldspar and lithic fragments. The sandstones comprise silt-to medium-grained lithic arkoses to feldspathic litharenites and litharenites, which have low porosity (0.5%–13.6%, with an average of 6.8%) and low permeability (0.009 × 10⁻³ μm² to 1.818 × 10⁻³ μm², with an average of 0.106 × 10⁻³ μm²).This study suggests that diagenetic facies identified from petrographic observations can be up-scaled by correlation with wire-line log responses, which can facilitate prediction of reservoir quality at a field-scale. Four diagenetic facies are determined based on petrographic features including intensity of compaction, cement types and amounts, and degree of dissolution. Unstable and labile components of sandstones can be identified by low bulk density and low gamma ray log values, and those sandstones show the highest reservoir quality. Tightly compacted sandstones/siltstones, which tend to have high gamma ray readings and relatively high bulk density values, show the poorest reservoir quality. A model based on principal component analysis (PCA) is built and show better prediction of diagenetic facies than biplots of well logs. The model is validated by blind testing log-predicted diagenetic facies against petrographic features from core samples of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin, which indicates it is a helpful predictive model.     

Risk-based drought early warning system in reservoir operation

This paper introduces a risk-based decision process integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. It is to support policy making under uncertainty for drought management. Aspects of posterior risk, chances of option occurrences and the corresponding options to given chances, are provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. A new risk index is also defined to characterize decision makers’ attitudes toward risk. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability through accuracy assessment, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. As a pioneering experiment, the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was tested. Over the simulation period (1964–2005), the expected overall accuracy approximated to 77%. The results show that the proposed approach is very practical and should find good use for reservoir operations.     

密云水库周边山区滑坡泥石流易发区预估

滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害的易发度主要是地质灾害自然属性特征的体现,它与孕灾环境的各项因子密切相关。这些因子包括地形地貌、流域水文、构造等内部条件因子以及地震、降雨等外部触发因子。为突出反映滑坡及泥石流主导因子的作用,本文参考了许多研究所采用的评价方法和因子选择,重点选取对该地区滑坡及泥石流发生区域分析评价起一定主导作用的、便于研究区域数据资料与空间资料匹配、关系密切的几个指标,包括地形地貌要素(坡度、坡向、坡形、相对高差、地貌类型)、环境要素(植被指数、河网密度、洪水淹没范围)、构造要素(距断层的距离、断层密度、地质岩性),通过对这些因子的敏感性进行分析,采用专家打分方法确定每种要素及因子的权重,借助因子加权叠加办法得出研究区地质灾害易发程度空间分布,用于表示其可能发生的统计意义上的可能性(概率),该研究对于区域地质灾害预防具有一定的适用价值。     

川西北中二叠统茅口组储层特征及成因

对四川盆地西北部钻井岩心、露头剖面样品的宏观及微观岩石学特征研究认为,川西北茅口组储层类型主要为生屑灰岩,储集空间主要为生物格架孔、粒间溶孔、粒内溶孔、溶蚀孔洞及裂缝。茅口组储层的发育主要受到沉积微相、古岩溶作用及构造作用等因素控制。其中沉积微相是储层形成的物质基础,古岩溶作用是储层形成的关键因素,而构造裂缝是储层改善及连通的重要因素。     

The Upper Limit Size of Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes

We showed the relation between the magnitude of induced earthquake and the reservoir storage and dam height based on the global catalog from 1967 to 1989 compiled by Ding Yuanzhang （1989）. By multiplying reservoir storage with dam height, we introduced a new parameter named EE. We found that the cases with specific EE and magnitude do not exceed a limit. Based on the discussion of its physics, we called EE the equivalent energy. We considered this limit as the upper limit of magnitude for reservoir-induced earthquakes. The result was proved by the recent cases occurring in China. This size limitation can be used as a helpful consideration for reservoir design.