四川地震辐射能量和视应力的研究

利用国家地震台网和全球地震台网的宽频带远震P波波形数据,通过测定2014—2019年间国内M_W≥6.0和国外M_W≥6.5共105次浅源地震的辐射能量和能量震级,研究了震源机制解对辐射能量估计的影响。结果表明：① 震源机制不同导致地震能量辐射差异较大,其中走滑型地震对辐射能量的影响最大,对能量震级的平均影响因子为0.34,正断型地震对能量震级的平均影响因子为0.08,逆断型地震对能量震级的影响最小,平均影响因子为0.05;② 不同震源机制类型地震的差震级ΔM也不同,走滑型地震的ΔM为 0.31,正断型地震的ΔM为0.21,逆断型地震的ΔM为0.08,这表明走滑型地震辐射能量的效率较高,正断型次之, 逆断型最低;③ 根据鲁甸地震的测定结果分析可知,当能矩比与慢度参数均远高于全球平均水平时,即使该地震震级较小,也存在造成严重破坏的概率;④ 能量震级M_e和矩震级M_W分别反映了震源的动态和静态属性,二者的联合测定对地震灾害合理评估和地震应急具有重要意义。     

塔里木克拉通形成以来的背景热史研究

2023年1月30日塔里木盆地北部新疆沙雅发生M_S6.1地震,其附近曾发生过2012年3月9日洛浦M_S6.0地震,两次地震均发生在巴楚隆起—阿瓦提凹陷构造带。通过gCAP方法测定了2023年沙雅M_S6.1地震和2012年洛浦M_S6.0地震的矩张量解,分析了沙雅地震和洛浦地震震源机制与区域应力场的关系,初步确定了其可能的震源断层。结果显示：矩张量反演得到的2023年沙雅M_S6.1地震震源机制解节面Ⅰ参数为走向251°、倾角68°、滑动角6°,节面Ⅱ参数为走向159°、倾角84°、滑动角158°,震源机制为走滑型,P轴方位为207°,倾伏角为11°;2012年洛浦M_S6.0地震震源机制解节面Ⅰ参数为走向274°、倾角61°、滑动角67°,节面Ⅱ参数为走向135°、倾角36°、滑动角125°,震源机制为逆冲型,P轴方位为20°,倾伏角为13°;两次地震的P轴方位与巴楚隆起—阿瓦提凹陷带NNE向主压应力方向一致;沙雅地震的地震矩M₀为7.798×10¹⁷ N·m,矩张量解M_rr,M_tt,M_pp,M_rt,M_rp,M_tp分别为−0.081,−0.821,0.342,0.064,−0.358,0.685;洛浦地震的地震矩M₀为9.076×10¹⁷ N·m,矩张量解M_rr,M_tt,M_pp,M_rt,M_rp,M_tp分别为0.517,−0.910,−0.353,−0.491,−0.180,0.341,且均属于典型天然构造地震事件。两次地震的震源机制与应力体系关系显示,其震源机制解节面的相对剪应力几乎达到了最大,且震源机制解滑动角与剪应力滑动角相差较小,表明两次地震几乎均发生在构造应力场的最优释放节面上,并主要以剪应力作用体现。结合已有研究,初步推测两次地震震源机制解的节面Ⅱ为可能的发震破裂面,2023年沙雅地震的发震构造可能为阿瓦提凹陷中地壳约30 km滑脱构造带上方NW走向的高倾角捩断层,地震错动方式为右旋走滑,该地震是由于塔里木克拉通北部整体向南天山深部俯冲导致NW向平移断条之间产生撕裂作用;2012年洛浦地震可能与巴楚隆起上盘相对于阿瓦提凹陷下盘NE方向逆冲运动产生的NW走向且断层面SW向倾的发震构造有关。

     

海原断裂带库仑应力积累

用中国地壳运动观测网络区域站在海原断裂带附近的所有观测数据及跨断裂GPS剖面观测数据作为约束, 用Smith3D体力模型反演了海原断裂带断层滑动速率和断层闭锁深度, 计算了库仑应力积累率和地震矩积累率.采用遗传算法拟合GPS水平运动速度场, 拟合的最后残差均方根为1.2mm/a.反演结果为: 第一段毛毛山断裂左旋走滑运动速率为3.6mm/a, 闭锁深度为22km; 第二段老虎山断裂左旋走滑速率为10.5mm/a, 闭锁深度为11.4km; 第三、四、五段(海原断裂带西段、中段和东段) 滑动速率依次为3.5mm/a、5.8mm/a、5.7mm/a, 闭锁深度依次为8.5km、3.6km、4.3km.海原断裂带库仑应力积累率为0.48~1.59MPa/100a, 毛毛山断裂地震矩积累率较大, 但库仑应力积累率较小; 老虎山断裂库仑应力积累率和地震矩积累率均比较大; 海原断裂带(狭义) 中西段库仑应力积累率最大.      

A hybrid calibration approach to Hertz-type contact parameters for discrete element models

This study aims at providing a hybrid calibration framework to estimate Hertz-type contact parameters (particle-scale shear modulus and Poisson ratio) for both two-dimensional and three-dimensional discrete element modelling (DEM). On the basis of statistically isotropic granular packings, a set of analytical formulae between macroscopic material parameters (Young modulus and Poisson ratio) and particle-scale Hertz-type contact parameters for granular systems are derived under small-strain isotropic stress conditions. However, the derived analytical solutions are only estimated values for general models. By viewing each DEM modelling as an implicit mathematical function taking the particle-level parameters as independent variables and employing the derived analytical solutions as the initial input parameters, an automatic iterative scheme is proposed to obtain the calibrated parameters with higher accuracies. Considering highly nonlinear features and discontinuities of the macro-micro relationship in Hertz-based discrete element models, the adaptive moment estimation algorithm is adopted in this study because of its capacity of dealing with noise gradients of cost functions. The proposed method is validated with several numerical cases including randomly distributed monodisperse and polydisperse packings. Noticeable improvements in terms of calibration efficiency and accuracy have been made.     

基于方向角修正的改进传递系数法

传递系数法假定条块作用力方向与上一条块底滑面平行。相关文献指出基于这样的假设可能导致计算结果偏大,偏于不安全。基于此,对条间作用力方向角进行修正:假定条间力方向角为上一条块底滑面倾角与未知常数λ(推力方向修正系数)的乘积,通过考虑边坡整体力矩平衡求解修正系数,进而求得边坡稳定系数,对传递系数法进行改进。通过经典算例及工程实例验算,结果表明,改进法计算结果较传统传递系数法更精确,物理过程更合理,能够满足工程精度要求。     

Source parameters and scaling relationships in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia (Northeastern Italy) region

We estimated the source parameters of 53 local earthquakes (2.0<M_L<5.7) of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia (Northeastern Italy) area, recorded by the short-period local seismic network of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), in the period 1995-2003. Data were selected on the basis of high quality locations and focal mechanisms. Standard H/V spectral ratios (HVRS) of the three-component stations of the network were performed in order to assess local amplifications, and only stations showing HVRS not exceeding two were considered for the source parameters estimation. Both velocity and acceleration data were used to compute the SH-wave spectra. Observed spectra were corrected for attenuation effects using an independent regional estimate of the quality factor Q and a station dependent estimate of the spectral decay parameter k. Only earthquakes with M_L>3.0 recorded with a sampling rate of 125 cps were used to compute k, thus allowing to visualize a linear trend of the high frequency acceleration spectrum up to 40-50 Hz. SH-wave spectra, corrected for attenuation, showed an ω⁻² shape allowing a good fit with the Brune model. Seismic moments and Brune radii ranged between 1.5×10¹² and 1.1×10¹⁷  N m and between 0.1 and 2.7 km respectively. We obtained M_o=1.1×10¹⁷  N m for the seismic moment of the Kobarid (SLO) main shock, in good agreement with the Harvard CMT solution (M_o=3.5×10¹⁷  N m). Brune stress drops were confined to the range from 0.07 to 5.31 MPa, with an average value of 0.73 MPa and seem to be approximately constant over five orders of magnitude of seismic moment. Radiated seismic energy computed from two nearby stations scales with seismic moment according to , and apparent stress values are between 0.02 and 4.26 MPa. The observed scatter of Brune stress drop data allowed to hypothesize a scaling relation between seismic moment and corner frequency in order to accommodate both Brune stress drop and apparent stress scalings. No systematic differences are evidenced between stress parameters of earthquakes with different focal mechanisms. As a consequence, a relation of the seismic stress release with the strength of rocks can be hypothesized. A high correlation (r>0.9) of Brune stress drop is found with both apparent stress and RMS stress drop, according to and respectively.     

太阳活动对京津冀地区旱涝的影响

利用中国气象科学院等整理的中国近五百年旱涝等级资料, 应用小波分析、 相关矩分析等方法, 详细分析了太阳黑子变化与京津冀地区旱涝的关系。在统计太阳黑子极值年附近旱涝特征时发现, 在太阳黑子峰值年附近京津冀地区容易出现偏旱的年份, 低谷年附近容易出现偏涝的年份。小波分析结果表明, 太阳黑子与旱涝指数在9.8年、 78.6年、 132.2年周期处存在对应关系, 说明太阳黑子的变化对京津冀地区的旱涝有一定影响。通过旱涝指数与太阳黑子相对数的相关矩分析, 发现两者相关关系存在阶段性的转折变化, 即由正相关转为负相关, 或者由负相关转为正相关, 相关矩发生转折的时间间隔最长为81年, 最短为23年, 平均为50年。本文还对相关矩阶段性变化的可能原因进行了初步分析。     

参考作物蒸散模型对比分析及评价

利用山东省6个气象台站45 a(1960-2004年)的逐日气象资料并选用7种参考作物蒸散模型,分别计算了上述各地的参考作物蒸散,对模型结果进行时空分布对比分析;进而以FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型为对照,利用最小一乘法对其余6种模型进行优化并对优化前后的模型进行时空比较.结果表明:Makkink模型在6个台站的时空分布模拟效果均最好,Mass-transfer模型在7-8月明显偏低,Net Radiation模型各站全年基本都偏高;根据不同月份的相对偏差情况,采用最小一乘法进行分月优化,优化后的模型预测月参考作物蒸散标准误差小于5 mm,平均相对误差小于8.5%,台站的年参考作物蒸散相对误差也基本小于10%,说明这些含参数较少的模型经优化后基本上可用,当资料缺损时不失为Penman-Monteith模型的替代模型.     

Study of small ions concentration in the air above Athens, Greece

Measurements of positive and negative small atmospheric ion concentrations have been made regularly since 1968 at the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). In this paper the 17-year period 1968–1984 is summarized. The diurnal and annual variations are examined, and Fourier analysis is also used for the study of the diurnal variation. The concentrations of small ions follow a double diurnal course. The maxima occur near 3–5 h and 13–16 h local time (LT = GMT + 2 h). The minima are observed at 6–8 h and 21–23 h. The annual course of small ions presents maximum concentration values around the summer season. The mean of the small ion concentration (SIC) for the 17-year period (1968–1984) is n₊ = 188.8 ions/cm³ for positive ions and n₋ = 151.1 ions/cm³ for negative ions. Their ratio is equal to 1.25. The year-to-year variation of SIC for the examined period shows a negative trend. The results from multiple regression analysis show that wind speed and SIC are positively correlated, while relative humidity, smoke and sulphur dioxide are negatively correlated.     

Kinematics of the Iberia–Maghreb plate contact from seismic moment tensors and GPS observations

The Iberian Peninsula and the Maghreb experience moderate earthquake activity and oblique,  NW–SE convergence between Africa and Eurasia at a rate of  5 mm/yr. Coeval extension in the Alboran Basin and a N35°E trending band of active, left-lateral shear deformation in the Alboran–Betic region are not straightforward to understand in the context of regional shortening, and evidence complexity of deformation at the plate contact. We estimate 86 seismic moment tensors (M_W 3.3 to 6.9) from time domain inversion of near-regional waveforms in an intermediate period band. Those and previous moment tensors are used to describe regional faulting style and calculate average stress tensors. The solutions associated to the Trans-Alboran shear zone show predominantly strike-slip faulting, and indicate a clockwise rotation of the largest principal stress orientation compared to the regional convergence direction (σ₁ at N350°E). At the N-Algerian and SW-Iberian margins, reverse faulting solutions dominate, corresponding to N350°E and N310°E compression, respectively. Over most of the Betic range and intraplate Iberia, we observe predominately normal faulting, and WSW–ENE extension (σ₃ at N240°E). From GPS observations we estimate that more than 3 mm/yr of African (Nubian)–Eurasian plate convergence are currently accommodated at the N-Algerian margin,  2 mm/yr in the Moroccan Atlas, and  2 mm/yr at the SW-Iberian margin. 2 mm/yr is a reasonable estimate for convergence within the Alboran region, while Alboran extension can be quantified as  2.5 mm/yr along the stretching direction (N240°E). Superposition of both motions explains the observed left-lateral transtensional regime in the Trans-Alboran shear zone. Two potential driving mechanisms of differential motion of the Alboran–Betic–Gibraltar domain may coexist in the region: a secondary stress source other than plate convergence, related to regional-scale dynamic processes in the upper mantle of the Alboran region, as well as drag from the continental-scale motion of the Nubian plate along the southern limit of the region. In the Atlantic Ocean, the  3.5 mm/yr, westward motion of the Gibraltar Arc relative to intraplate Iberia can be accommodated at the transpressive SW-Iberian margin, while available GPS observations do not support an active subduction process in this area.