Detection of small hydrological variations in gravity by repeated observations with relative gravimeters

Recently, a new application of time-dependent gravity observations is emerging: the study of natural hydrological mass changes and their underlying processes. Complementary to GRACE data and continuous recordings with superconducting gravimeters, repeated observations with relative instruments on a local network may contribute to gain additional information on spatial changes in hydrology. The questions that need to be addressed are whether the results of these repeated measurements will be of sufficiently high resolution and accuracy, as well as how unique the information obtained will be. To examine this, a local gravity network with maximum point distances of 65 m was established in a hilly area around the Geodynamic Observatory Moxa, Germany. Using three to five LaCoste & Romberg relative gravimeters repeated measurements were carried out in a seasonal rhythm as well as at particular events like snowmelt or dryness in 17 campaigns between November 2004 and April 2007. The standard deviations obtained by least squares adjustment range from ±9 to ±14 nm/s² for a gravity difference of one campaign, thus for gravity changes between two campaigns from ±13 to ±20 nm/s². Between the points of the network, spatial gravity changes of up to 171 nm/s² (139 nm/s² between two successive campaigns) could be proven significantly. They correlate with changes in the local hydrological situation. Particularly, a steep slope next to the observatory is identified as a gravimetrically significant hydrological compartment. The results obtained contribute to an improved reduction of the local hydrological signal in continuous gravity recordings and provide constraints to hydrological models.     

近44a毛乌素沙地西缘气候特征及其未来可能变化趋势

利用1971—2014年毛乌素沙地西缘气象观测资料,分析了该地区的气温、降水、相对湿度的时空变化特征,运用R/S分析法预测未来毛乌素沙地西缘气候要素可能变化趋势。结果表明:(1)近44 a毛乌素沙地西缘气温呈显著上升趋势,降水量呈弱的增加趋势,相对湿度呈弱的下降趋势,但是二者趋势并不显著。(2)近44 a毛乌素沙地西缘气温空间分布呈南高北低,降水和相对湿度均呈东多西少,各地气候倾向率存在明显的差异性,中部气温增幅较大,东部降水增加较多,南部相对湿度减少较多。(3)近44 a来毛乌素沙地西缘各气象要素变化均表现出一定的周期性,年平均气温主要存在4~5、8~10 a的振荡周期,降水量主要存在3~4、6~8 a振荡周期,相对湿度主要存在2~4、6~8 a的振荡周期。(4)毛乌素沙地西缘未来气温仍呈上升趋势可能性较大,未来降水量可能变为减少趋势,未来相对湿度变化不稳定。     

武汉大气能见度与PM2.5浓度及相对湿度关系的非线性分析及能见度预报

武汉作为中部地区高湿度代表城市,大气污染严重,霾天气多发,但有关该地区大气能见度与PM_2.5浓度及相对湿度(RH)的定量关系尚不明确。利用2014年9月—2015年3月武汉地区逐时能见度、相对湿度及颗粒物质量浓度观测数据,研究分析了武汉大气能见度与PM_2.5浓度及相对湿度的关系,并进行能见度非线性预报初探,得到以下结论:武汉霾时数发生比例高,霾的发生和加重是能见度降低的主要原因;能见度降低伴随大量细粒子产生和累积,这是武汉大气能见度恶化的重要诱因。细颗粒物浓度与相对湿度共同影响和制约大气能见度变化,高湿高浓度时能见度显著下降,湿情景下(RH≥40%),能见度恶化主要是由湿度增高诱使细颗粒物粒径吸湿增长导致其散射效率增大造成的。当RH >90%时,能见度随湿度升高成线性递减,相对湿度每升高1%,武汉平均能见度降低0.568 km。而干情景下(RH<40%),能见度迅速降低的关键因素是PM_2.5质量浓度升高。在城市大气细粒子污染背景下,能见度与相对湿度成非线性关系,这主要与PM_2.5对能见度的影响及吸湿性颗粒物的散射效率变化有关。PM_2.5浓度与能见度成幂函数非线性关系,80%≤RH<90%湿度区段下相关性最强。PM_2.5浓度对能见度的影响敏感阈值是随着湿度升高而减小的,干情景下能见度10 km对应的PM_2.5浓度阈值为70 μg/m³,湿情景下该阈值为18—55 μg/m³。当PM_2.5质量浓度低于约40 μg/m³时,继续降低PM_2.5可显著提高武汉大气能见度。预报试验表明,基于神经网络方法建立大气能见度非线性预报模型是可行的,预报能见度相关系数为0.86,均方根误差为1.9 km,能见度≤10 km的TS评分为0.92。网络模型具有较高预报性能,对霾的判别有较高准确性,为衔接区域环境气象数值预报模式,建立大气能见度精细化动力统计模型提供参考依据。     

Evaluation method and application of the relative contribution of marine hydrocarbon source rocks in the Tarim basin: A case study from the Tazhong area

In total, 2.37 million tons of marine crude oil originating from mixed source rocks has been discovered in the Tarim basin. Geological and geochemical analyses have confirmed that these mixed hydrocarbons are mainly from two sets of source rocks, including the Cambrian – Lower Ordovician and Middle-Upper Ordovician hydrocarbon source rocks. In this study, we determined the set of source rocks primarily responsible for the mixed hydrocarbons and the next location to be explored. Differences in n-alkane carbon isotopes in end-member oils from Cambrian–Lower Ordovician and Middle-Upper Ordovician source rocks were examined. A material balance model and simulation methods were used to evaluate the relative amounts contributed by each source. The results from known reserves in the Tazhong area show that the mixing ratio or contribution is up to 65% from Cambrian–Lower Ordovician source rocks and is generally higher than that from Middle-Upper Ordovician source rocks. The discovery of deep hydrocarbons has caused the total oil contribution from the Cambrian–Lower Ordovician to increase. The mixing ratio of Cambrian–Lower Ordovician oil varies depending on the well, formation, and block. It increases from west to east horizontally and from top to bottom vertically. Hydrocarbons from Cambrian–Lower Ordovician source rocks migrate upward along faults, and the mixing ratio decreases as the distance from the oil source fault increases. Favorable areas for Cambrian–Lower Ordovician hydrocarbon exploration are deep layers and areas near the fault zone that are connected to deep layers. The material balance model for carbon isotopes and evaluation methods for relative contributions considered differences in relative concentration and carbon isotope structure of n-alkanes. Herein, new methods for the identification and evaluation of hydrocarbons in the petroleum system of this superimposed basin are presented.     

Transient and steady-state relative permeabilities from two-phase flow experiments in planar pore networks

The water k_rw and oil k_ro relative permeability curves of a glass-etched planar pore network are estimated with history matching from transient displacement experiments performed at varying values of the capillary number, Ca  , for two fluid systems: one of intermediate and one of strong wettability. The transient _krw,_kro$k_{\text{rw}}\text{,}{k}_{\text{ro}}$ are compared to corresponding ones measured with the steady-state method on the same porous medium [Avraam DG, Payatakes AC. Flow regimes and relative permeabilities during steady-state two-phase flow in porous media. J Fluid Mech 1995;293:207–36; Avraam DG, Payatakes AC. Generalized relative permeability coefficients during steady-state two-phase flow in porous media and correlation with the flow mechanisms. Transport Porous Med 1995;20:135–68; Avraam DG, Payatakes AC. Flow mechanisms, relative permeabilities, and coupling effects in steady-state two-phase flow through porous media. The case of strong wettability. Ind Eng Chem Res 1999;38:778–86.], and potential differences from them are interpreted in the light of the differences between the transient growth pattern, and the steady-state two-phase flow regime. For intermediate wettability, the transient k_ro and k_rw exceed the corresponding steady-state functions at low Ca values and have the tendency to become smaller than the steady-state ones at high Ca values. For strong wettability, the transient k_ro and k_rw are increasing functions of Ca, the transient k_ro is higher than the steady-state one, whereas the transient k_rw decreases substantially and becomes lower than the steady-state one at low Ca values. The dynamic capillary pressure estimated from transient experiments is a decreasing function of Ca in agreement with previous theoretical and experimental studies.     

基于ASTER VNIR SWIR多光谱遥感数据识别与提取干旱地区岩性信息——以西南天山柯坪隆起东部为例

ASTER多光谱遥感数据目前可以用于岩石矿物资源信息的识别和提取。本研究尝试利用ASTER 可见光近红外（VNIR）和短波红外（SWIR）的多光谱遥感数据提取干旱地区的岩石与矿物信息。基于新疆天山西南缘柯坪隆起东部不同地层单元岩石的化学组成和矿物成份以及VNIR SWIR谱域光谱吸收特征的分析,我们采用相关吸收波段深度（RBD）和波段比值（BR）方法对研究区的多光谱遥感数据进行图像处理,有效区分和识别了白云岩、石灰岩、砂岩以及阿克苏群的蓝片岩—绿片岩和砂质片岩。白云岩的CO2-3吸收谱带中心波长位于232〖KG*3〗μm,与灰岩的CO2-3 吸收谱带中心波长位置235 μm相比,具有向短波长方向移动的特点,据此可以利用RBD7、RBD8分别有效的识别白云岩和灰岩; 长英质岩石显示Al OH和Fe3+ VNIR SWIR吸收特征,而基性 超基性岩石显示Fe2+ 和Fe、Mg OH特征,利用不同的铁价态和次要矿物可以区分它们：ASTER band2/band1代表了含Fe3+ 矿物分布信息、ASTER band5/band4代表了含Fe2+ 矿物分布信息、RBD6可以估计Al OH矿物的丰度; 砂质/泥质片岩含较多的多硅白云母、绿泥石、黑硬绿泥石以及风化后表面覆盖的其它粘土矿物,在221 μm（band 6）存在有特征的吸收谱带,并且在165 μm（band 4）具有较高的反射率,而蓝片/绿片岩在221 μm（band 6）反射率较高,不具有明显特征吸收谱带,同时其在165 μm（band 4）反射率较低,因此蓝片/绿片岩ASTER band4/band6 比值低。应用ASTER band4/band6波段比值可以有效的区分开砂质/泥质片岩与蓝片岩/绿片岩。     

基于SPI与相对湿润度指数的1961-2009年东北地区5-9月干旱趋势分析

依据东北地区1961-2009年71个气象台站月平均气温、降水资料,运用标准化降水指数（SPI）与相对湿润度指数等干旱指标分析了东北地区5-9月的干旱趋势。结果表明：1961-2009年,东北大部分地区在5-9月呈干旱化趋势,仅在黑龙江大兴安岭北部、黑龙江西南部以及黑龙江与吉林的东部交界处表现为湿润化;东北三省干湿震荡主要周期大约为22-24a,近49a发生了4次干湿交替,突变年为1976及1996年。就干旱发生范围而言,近49a东北地区干旱面积呈上升趋势,以1996年为分界线,农作物干旱受灾比在吉林增幅最大,辽宁次之,黑龙江最小,采用SPI与相对湿润度指数评价东北地区干旱较符合实际。就干旱发生频率而言,高值区主要集中在东北西部,特别是黑龙江的齐齐哈尔与大庆地区、吉林的白城地区及辽宁的朝阳地区。干旱与极端干旱的发生频率在1981-1990年较低,在2001-2009年最高,而极端干旱发生频率增加幅度明显高于一般干旱。     

大气相对湿度资料融合及融合湿度精度检验——基于2013年1月我国中东部地区卫星和探空相对湿度数据

利用2013年1月MODIS(MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)的大气廓线产品计算得到大气相对湿度廓线,并与探空观测得到的相对湿度资料进行对比,发现总体上MODIS反演的相对湿度高于探空值,且在相对湿度较低区域误差较大;需要剔除有云影响的MODIS数据和相对湿度小于5%的探空数据;用平均值订正法对MODIS数据进行均一性修正,采用直接订正法、最大相关系数法开展MODIS和探空相对湿度资料融合试验,对融合结果进行分析对比和精度检验。结果表明:(1)直接订正法融合湿度在相对湿度较低区域高于探空湿度,在相对湿度较高区域低于探空湿度,最大相关系数法融合湿度在高湿区和低湿区均与探空接近;(2)融合结果精度检验表明,直接订正法融合湿度与探空湿度的平均绝对误差在850 hPa不超过10%,在925 hPa不超过12%,在1000 hPa不超过9%;采用最大相关系数法融合得到的相对湿度值在各层与探空湿度的绝对误差均不超过4%。总体来看最大相关系数法比直接订正法融合效果更好。     

Mapping of hazard from rainfall-triggered landslides in developing countries: Examples from Honduras and Micronesia

Loss of life and property caused by landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events demonstrates the need for landslide-hazard assessment in developing countries where recovery from such events often exceeds the country's resources. Mapping landslide hazards in developing countries where the need for landslide-hazard mitigation is great but the resources are few is a challenging, but not intractable problem. The minimum requirements for constructing a physically based landslide-hazard map from a landslide-triggering storm, using the simple methods we discuss, are: (1) an accurate mapped landslide inventory, (2) a slope map derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) or topographic map, and (3) material strength properties of the slopes involved. Provided that the landslide distribution from a triggering event can be documented and mapped, it is often possible to glean enough topographic and geologic information from existing databases to produce a reliable map that depicts landslide hazards from an extreme event. Most areas of the world have enough topographic information to provide digital elevation models from which to construct slope maps. In the likely event that engineering properties of slope materials are not available, reasonable estimates can be made with detailed field examination by engineering geologists or geotechnical engineers. Resulting landslide hazard maps can be used as tools to guide relocation and redevelopment, or, more likely, temporary relocation efforts during severe storm events such as hurricanes/typhoons to minimize loss of life and property. We illustrate these methods in two case studies of lethal landslides in developing countries: Tegucigalpa, Honduras (during Hurricane Mitch in 1998) and the Chuuk Islands, Micronesia (during Typhoon Chata'an in 2002).     

灌注桩桩土相互作用试验及有限元模拟研究

以灌注桩桩土相互作用的原位试验为基础, 结合西安土层结构、性质; 采用有限单元法对黄土地区的砼灌注桩桩土相互作用进行仿真模拟, 研究了桩土相互作用、荷载的传递规律、桩土相对位移与桩侧摩阻力的关系。通过桩载试验资料对比, 得出三维有限单元法的模拟结果与实测值相近, 该研究进一步揭示了桩土相互作用的实质, 为最优桩长的选取和单桩承载力的确定奠定了基础。