区域趋势控制协变量回归分析效果评估方法研究

本文根据区域趋势控制和气象－物理协变量相关设计了三套非随机化人工增雨作业效果评估方案，个例作用区域趋势对比双比分析评估方案，区域趋势相关回归分析评估方案和气象－物理协变量多元回归分析评估方案，对河南省实例评估计算表明，利用物理协变量作为控制因子，可以提高作业区自然水量估计值的准确度，从而能提高随机化作业的效果评估效率。     

阿勒泰夏季大降水过程中高潜能场的时空变化特征分析

以大降水过程中触发高潜能量释放的天气系统为背景条件，以高潜能场为起报信息，对40个大降水个例进行统计、分析和归纳，概括出阿勒泰夏季大降水过程中，高潜能场的时空变化特征，从中得出预报阿勒泰夏季大降水的新指标，进一步提高了大降水预报的准确率。     

A Simple Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Flow in Complex Terrain in the Context of Wind Energy Modelling

A simple temporal and spatial analysisis done on wind speed and direction data from a number ofmeteorological towers separated by distances between roughly 1 and 100 kilometres. The analysis is done in the context of expected model error in wind energy calculations. The study first uses single point statistics to show the evolution of mean values with time. It is shown that strong seasonal signals are present and that stable means are achieved only after averaging periods of a year or more. The study then uses discrete Fourier transforms to show that significant amounts of spectral energy reside in modes with periods of a few days to less than a day. Frequency dependent cross correlation values are then derived and used to show how correlation between towers diminishes with increasing frequency. The mechanism responsible for this diminished correlation is shown through the comparison of cross-correlation phase as a function of frequency and its relationship to distance between towers. Error in wind energy estimates are shown to be strongly related to correlation and therefore distance over which the prediction is made. In summary, much of the inaccuracy in modelling flow in the context of wind energy calculations is due to a lack of scale separation between the deterministic part of the flow, which is well modelled, and that part of the flow that is stochastic at the length and time scales modelled.     

Modelling Regional Scale Surface Energy Exchanges And Cbl Growth In A Heterogeneous, Urban-Rural Landscape

Over the last decade, simple models of theconvective boundary layer (CBL) have beensuggested as an approach to inferring regionallyaveraged land-air exchanges of heat, water and tracegases, because the properties of the CBL respond toan average of the underlying small-scaleheterogeneity. This paper explores the use of anintegral CBL method to infer regionally averagedfluxes in a landscape that has at least three majorsources of heterogeneity – irrigated andnon-irrigated rural land use and a large urban area(Sacramento region, California).The first part of the paper assesses the validity ofthe simple slab model of the CBL – this isintegrated forwards in time using local-scalemeasured heat and water vapour fluxes, to predictmixed-layer depth, temperature and humidity. Of thefour different CBL growth schemes used, the Tennekesand Driedonks model is found to give the bestperformance. Evaluation of the model performancewith different weightings of heat and water vapourfluxes based on the land use characteristics in theregion suggest that the source area for theboundary-layer sonde measurements is larger thanphysically-based estimates would suggest.Finally, measured time series of potentialtemperature are used to infer regionally averagedsensible heat fluxes using an integral CBL (ICBL)method. These ICBL fluxes are compared with thosemeasured at the local scale over the three land usetypes that comprise the region of interest. They arefound to be closest to the heat fluxes calculated byappropriately weighting the measured heat fluxes inthe source area calculated for the ICBL. We concludethat the integral CBL budget method providesadequate estimates of regionally-averaged surfaceheat fluxes in a landscape that is characterised bysurface types with distinctly different surfaceenergy budgets.     

华北地区地磁前兆异常特征的研究

通过多种分析方法对华北近三十年来的中强地震前的地磁异常进行分析，发现地震的孕育、发生在时空分布上与地磁场的变化有一定的相关性。震中距200km范围内，中强地震前很多站都出现变幅不等的地磁异常变化，异常时间多数在一年内。异常形态多趋势性上升或趋势性下降。     

根据构造环境剪应力值水平区分地震和核爆炸

根据地震破裂的断裂力学模式，导出了震源参数与地震发生处的构造环境剪应力值t0之间的函数关系．据此，可以大量计算震源处的构造环境剪应力值或背景应力值．若把核爆炸当作地震来计算，发现核爆炸的t0值平均在20MPa左右，明显地高于同震级地震的t0值．其结果可以作为区分地震与核爆炸的依据．      

东亚地区现今构造应力图的编制

利用2993个浅源地震的地震矩张量解、404个Ｐ波初动方向震源机制解和47个深井孔的孔壁崩落资料，编制了东亚地区现今地壳构造应力场主应力方向和应力类型分布图．按200km的等距格点，算出有资料地区各格点半径为200km范围内的平均应力方向，绘制了平均主应力方向分布图，并绘制了东亚地区的震源机制解分布图．主应力方向分布特征表明，东亚地区的现今构造应力场除受印度 欧亚板块碰撞的强烈影响外，俯冲带的弧后扩张亦有重要影响．喜马拉雅山弧处的大陆碰撞和缅甸山弧处的弧后扩张之联合作用可能形成了青藏高原东南部主应力方向的显著转动．菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块在台湾的碰撞与琉球岛弧弧后扩张的联合作用影响了中国东部的应力场．爪哇海沟俯冲带的弧后大片地区现今没有强震活动，这里的弧后扩张可能是造成东南亚地区物质容易向南运动的因素．青藏高原内部大致以昆仑山为界，北部和东北部是大陆内部的宽阔挤压带，南部和西南部地壳上部主要处于正断层型应力状态中．      

基于螺旋线上谱因式分解的地震波场隐式辛算法

均匀介质、复杂各向同性介质和各向异性介质中的地震波传播过程,可用统一形式的标量声波方程描述.考虑到在无损耗条件下,地震波方程描述了地震波场这一个无穷维的哈密顿体系随时间的演化过程,该过程为一个单参数连续辛变换,因而可以在其哈密顿形式表述下导出其辛格式.与显式辛算法相比,隐式辛格式对应的隐式辛几何算法具有无条件稳定的特点,可以允许较大的计算步长.但是由于隐式算法不可避免地面临高阶矩阵的求逆,其每一步的计算速度较慢.为实现矩阵快速求逆,文中采用了螺旋边界条件下谱因式分解的方法.在螺旋边界条件下,需要求逆的矩阵化为带状矩阵,而且其各列非零元素的位置和大小具有非常好的相似性,因而可以采用谱因式分解的方法实现快速LU分解.文中采用二阶精度的隐式蛙跳辛格式和谱因式分解方法,计算了常速度、层状介质和Marmousi模型中的波场.计算表明,隐式辛算法不失为波场计算的一种好方法.     

鄂霍茨克海的地球物理场与地质构造

鄂霍茨克海位于西太平泮边缘海最北部，受欧亚大陆板块和太平洋板块的作用，有十分复杂的地质地球物理特征，鄂霍茨克海不仅有海隆，还有三个著名的盆地，其中的千岛盆地，是研究鄂霍茨克海的一个窗口，本文通过对大量相关资料的二次开发，详细地讨论了鄂霍茨克海的地球物理场特征，沉积特点、热流分及深部结构特点，并对该边缘海的形成演化进行了初步的探讨，我们认为，对鄂霍茨克海研究的结果，将对中国边缘海地质特征的研究起到帮助和借鉴作用。     

陕西地区环境剪应力的分布特征

利用西安数字地震遥测台网记录的宽频带数字地震资料，测定了陕西地区环境剪应力值τ0的分布，结果显示陕西地区存在着环境剪应力值τ0的高值区，最后对其与地质构造和地震活动性之间的关系进行了探讨。