统计降尺度方法在青海省冬季最低温度预测中的应用

利用2003-2007年国家气象中心T213L31全球中期数值预报模式逐日输出产品与青海地区25个气象站的观测数据作为试验资料, 利用相关系数和逐步回归进行因子选择, 并以单隐层神经网络和多元回归作为降尺度方法进行对比研究, 用2003-2006年间的11月1日～次年3月1日的资料作为训练样本, 以数值预报产品和前一日观测的最低温度作为因子, 建立青海省25个气候站的冬季最低温度的24, 48, 72 h预报模型, 并且以2006年12月和2007年的1、 2月作为24, 48, 72 h逐日最低温度预报试验时段。试验表明, 对于青海地区来说, 青海北部地区的预报命中率总体好于南部高原地区; 在4种对比方案中, 以选择数值预报资料结合前一日地面观测的最低温度作为主要因子的方法相对较优, 随着预报时效的延长, 24 h历史实况的作用逐渐减弱; 对于所有台站来说, 这4种方案各有优缺点, 没有一种方案可以完全代替其他所有方案; 在实际业务运行中, 对不同的台站应采用不同的预报方案进行实际业务预报。     

机载雷达定量测雨中衰减效应的订正研究

星载测雨雷达的应用,必须满足一些主要条件:高的空间分辨率、宽阔的覆盖范围、大的动态降雨测量范围以及精确的点测量等。由于技术条件的限制,满足这些条件的雷达工作在被雨衰减的频率段,因此必须修正由于衰减所导致的误差。对于单波束单频雷达,kZS（衰减系数-雷达反射因子-海表反射率）算法在一个较大的雨强范围内对衰减效应的订正效果较好。本文将kZS应用到在西太平洋进行的国际大型科学考察实验TOGA/COARE中1993年1月和2月间取得机载雷达（和星载雷达频率相近）实测数据,进行雨空间分布的研究,取得了和模拟研究预期相吻合的结果。     

线翼截断方式对大气辐射计算的影响

在大气辐射传输计算方法中,有3种基本方法,即,逐线积分方法,k-分布方法和带模式方法。其中,逐线积分方法是最精确的计算大气透过率的方法,本文根据透过率计算方式的不同,将逐线积分方法分为追线积分法和追点积分法。由于逐线积分计算需要耗费大量的计算时间,在大气遥感和大气探测业务中使用时,必须减少计算成本,提高计算速度。本文在追线积分法的基础上,给出了简化的逐线积分的基本方法,在保证同样计算精度的同时,大大提高了计算速度。对在精确的和简化的逐线积分下,不同线翼截断方式(CUTOFF)对吸收系数、大气透过率和冷却率的影响进行了更详细的探讨。通过数值试验发现,对谱线线翼的截断方式是影响辐射计算精度和计算速度的重要因子。在不同压力下,用CUTOFF=2计算的吸收系数误差最大;对CUTOFF=1,在大多数取样点上误差都小于2%;对CUTOFF=3或4,对绝大多数取样点上计算的吸收系数误差都在5%以内,但所用的计算时间却明显减少。大气低层的透过率对不同的计算方法和不同的线翼截断方式不敏感;对大气高层,无论是对精确的还是简化的逐线积分方法,当CUTOFF=2时的透过率结果与其他线翼截断方式的结果差别较大。通过比较,本文给出线翼截断的优选方案。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF ATMOSPHERIC METHANE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 150 YEARS

A global two-dimensional chemistry model is developed to study long-term trends of CH_4 sinceindustrial revolution.The sources of CH_4,CO and NO_x are parameterized as functions of latitudeand time.With two long-term emission scenarios,long-term trends of CH_4 are simulated.The resultshave a good agreement with observation from ice cores.The modeled CH_4 increased from 760 ppbvin 1840 to 1611.9 ppbv in 1991, while the modeled number concentration of tropospheric OHdecreased from 7.17×10~5 cm~(-3)in 1840 to 5.79×10~5 cm~(-3) in 1991.The increase of atmosphericCH_4 can be explained by the increase of emission of CH_4 and build-up because of decrease of OHradicals that remove CH_4 from the atmosphere.The model is also used to simulate the distribution of CH_4.Comparisons between the modelresults and observations show that the model can simulate both latitudinal distribution and seasonalvariation of CH_4 well.     

The Effects of Line-Wing Cutoff in LBL Integration on Radiation Calculations

There are three basic methods in radiative transfer calculations, i.e., line-by-line (LBL) integration, correlated k-distribution method, and band model. The LBL integration is the most accurate of all, in which, there are two quadrature algorithms named in this paper as integration by lines and by sampling "points when calculating atmospheric transmittance in the considered wavenumber region. Because the LBL integration is the most expensive of all, it is necessary and important to save calculation time but increase calculation speed when it is put into use in the daily operation in atmospheric remote sensing and atmospheric sounding. A simplified LBL method is given in this paper on the basis of integration by lines, which increases computational speed greatly with keeping the same accuracy. Then, we discuss the effects of different cutoff schemes on atmospheric absorption coefficient, transmittance, and cooling rate under both of accurate and simplified LBL methods in detail. There are four cutoff schemes described in this paper, i.e., CUTOFFs 1, 2, 3, and 4. It is shown by this numerical study that the way to cut off spectral line-wing has a great effect on the accuracy and speed of radiative calculations. The relative errors of the calculated absorption coefficients for CUTOFF 2 are the largest under different pressures, while for CUTOFF 1, they are less than 2% at most of sampling points and for CUTOFFs 3 or 4, they are ahnost less than 5% in the calculated spectral region, however, the calculation time is reduced greatly. We find in this study that the transmittance in the lower atmosphere is not sensitive to different LBL methods and different cutoff schemes. Whereas for the higher atmosphere, the differences of transmittance results between CUTOFF 2 and each of other three cutoff schemes are the biggest of all no matter for the accurate LBL or for the simplified LBL integrations. By comparison, the best and optimized cutoff scheme is given in this paper finally.     

水稻低温敏不育系培矮64s“冷灌繁种”适用技术研究

通过对低温敏不育系水稻培矮６４ｓ育性敏感期间冷水灌溉处理后的农田微气象要素和自交结实率的平行观测，分析研究了供试不育系的适宜灌水时段、灌水深度以及灌溉用水量等的“冷灌繁种”适用技术。     

2011年龙眼挂果率高的气象成因分析

通过对2010/2011年度玉林市龙眼秋梢抽生期—开花着果期的农业气象条件进行诊断分析,找出了有利2011年挂果率高的主要气象条件,并根据龙眼的开花结果习性和玉林市的气候特点,提出了一些相应的对策,以最大限度地提高挂果率。     

K-Ar Ages of Granitic Magmatism and Related Pegmatite Formation at the Umanotani-Shiroyama Mine, Shimane Prefecture, SW Japan and Their Bearings on Cooling History

Abstract. The Umanotani-Shiroyama pegmatite deposits, the largest producer of K-feldspar and quartz in Japan, are of typical granitic pegmatite. Ilmenite-series biotite granite and granite porphyry, hosting the ore deposits, and biotites separated from these rocks yielded K-Ar ages ranging from 89.0 to 81.4 Ma and 95.2 to 93.7 Ma, respectively. Muscovite and K-feldspar separated from the ore zone yielded K-Ar ages with the range of 96.2 to 93.1 Ma and 87.3 to 80.7 Ma, respectively. Muscovites from quartz-muscovite veins in the ore zone and in the granite porphyry yielded K-Ar ages of 90.4 and 76.3 Ma, respectively. K-feldspar is much younger in age than coexisting muscovite. It is noted that the K-Ar ages of biotite separates and the whole-rock ages are identical to those of muscovite and K-feldspar in the ore zone, respectively. These time relations, as well as field occurrence, indicate that the formation of the pegmatite deposits at the Umanotani-Shiroyama mine is closely related in space and time to a series of granitic magmatism of ilmenite-series nature. Using closure temperatures of the K-Ar system for biotite and K-feldspar (microcline), cooling rate of the pegmatite deposits is estimated to be about 82C/m.y. at the beginning, but slowed down to about 15C/m.y. in the later period.     

中国大陆科学钻探主孔自然放射性测井及其解释

为了认识江苏东海超高压变质带上地壳岩石自然放射性的垂向分布特征, 榴辉岩退变质程度对放射性元素浓度的影响, 以及放射性产热率对地温梯度的影响, 利用中国大陆科学钻探(CCSD) 主孔100~5000m自然放射性测井(自然伽马和自然伽马能谱) 资料统计了CCSD主孔各类岩石的自然放射性强度和铀、钍、钾元素的浓度, 计算出产热率曲线.自然伽马, 铀、钍、钾浓度和产热率从蛇纹岩到榴辉岩、角闪岩、副片麻岩、正片麻岩依次增大.随着榴辉岩退变质程度的增强, 其铀、钍、钾元素的浓度值逐渐增大.CCSD主孔自然放射性的垂向分布特征主要受岩性控制, 自然放射性随深度增加有增强趋势.产热率与自然伽马测井值之间有很好的线性关系, 在高放射性岩层的上部, 地温梯度会出现较强扰动和低值异常.      

高精度住房空置率的地理空间影响因素定量研究

为揭示住房空置率对地理空间因素的依赖性,本文首先以50 m×50 m格网为基本单位,通过建模等方式计算格网尺度的住房空置率、自然因子、社会因子,然后对研究区进行不同级别的划分和相关性分析,最后采用地理探测器法对自然因子的影响机制进行进一步研究。结果表明：①研究区住房空置率与所选地理空间因子均呈显著性相关,植被占比对住房空置率的影响程度最大,其他自然因子的影响程度普遍偏小;②由于非建成区尚处于快速发展阶段,有较大的发展潜力,因此非建成区对于社会因子和自然因子的依赖程度均大于建成区;③各街道的住房空置率受坡度的影响程度普遍小于其他自然因子,各因子两两之间的交互作用对住房空置率的解释力具有显著增强的效果。本文为小区域住房空置率的影响因素剖析提供了参考。