Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

温度对管角螺Hemifusus tuba(Gelin)耗氧率和排氨率的影响

设置5个温度梯度(14、19、24、29、34℃),海水盐度为32,研究温度和规格对管角螺Hemifusustuba(Gelin)耗氧率和排氨率的影响。结果表明:14～29℃范围内,管角螺耗氧率随温度的升高,29℃时达到最大值;14～34℃范围内,排氨率随温度的升高而增加。在相同温度下,耗氧率和排氨率随单位软体部干重的增加而下降,管角螺软体部干重(W)与单位体重耗氧率(OR)、排氨率(NR)之间的关系分别符合幂函数方程OR=aW-b、NR=cW-d,W与OR、NR呈负相关关系。     

氮磷营养盐对中肋骨条藻生长及硝酸还原酶活性的影响

通过实验室培养,在不同氮磷浓度及氮磷比率的营养条件下,对中肋骨条藻（Skeletonema costatum）的生长及藻细胞硝酸还原酶的活性进行研究。实验结果表明,中肋骨条藻属于营养型藻类,氮磷营养盐的添加,极大地促进了藻细胞的增殖。在接种后的第4～5天,各培养组藻密度达到最大值并与对照组形成极显著性差异（P〈0．01）。实验进一步发现,环境中的氮、磷浓度及氮磷比率都会影响中肋骨条藻的生长及藻细胞硝酸还原酶活性（NRA）。此外,在各培养组中,中肋骨条藻硝酸还原酶活性的最大值（NRAmax）均出现在指数生长期（接藻后第1,2天）,早于最大藻密度的出现时间（第4,5天）,这表明藻对营养盐的同化速率与生长速率并不一致,后者存在一定的滞后效应。在本实验条件下,中肋骨条藻的硝酸还原酶活性存在一定的阈值。     

沙质海岸强浪作用下沿岸输沙问题研究

在沙质海岸上修建导流堤、丁坝等会引起局部海域水沙动力条件的改变和海床冲淤调整,因此准确预测沿岸输沙率是海岸工程建设前进行优化设计的基础条件之一.首先构建了刻画高强度推移质输沙过程中固-液混合体运动的理论模型,通过寻求模型的特解并推导成1D沿岸输沙率公式.该公式适宜计算强浪作用下的推移质输沙率,已得到了大型波浪水槽、往复流水道和海滩现场实测输沙率资料的良好验证.通过与物理模型试验实测输沙量结果的比较,进一步表明该公式能够较好地预测沙质海岸在寒潮大风浪(或台风浪)作用下的高强度输沙量(骤淤量).     

几种大型珍珠贝人工苗网箱式中间培育的研究

采用网箱式和传统式2种方法,在3个不同类型的海区(内湾性的陵水县黎安港、半开放性的雷州市流沙港、开放性的三亚市六道湾),进行几种大型珍珠贝人工苗的中间培育.经90d的中间培育后,结果表明:网箱式培育与传统式培育相比较,几种珍珠贝的生长速率和成活率都有较大幅度的提高.其壳高生长速率的增幅分别为:珠母贝18.9%、18.2%、19.9%;大珠母贝22.8%、20.6%、23.5%;企鹅珍珠贝21.8%、20.7%、21.7%;均为差异显著(P＜0.05)或差异极显著(P＜0.01).成活率的增幅分别为:珠母贝175.0%、147.9%、133.9%;大珠母贝172.8%、159.0%、127.4%;企鹅珍珠贝122.5%、118.2%、102.2%,均为差异显著(P＜0.05)或差异极显著(P＜ 0.01).     

特定折扣率的二度价格歧视研究

研究基于垄断厂商收益最大化的特定折扣率的定价问题,给出解的具体表达式,同时解决原有文献中需求函数为非线性函数时,最优固定折扣率的解的问题。     

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库岸边坡倾角及水位变化对红土型库岸稳定性影响研究

水库库岸失稳对水库安全运行有重大影响。采用土工试验和干湿循环试验,结合数值计算及理论分析,研究红土型库岸边坡倾角和库水位升降与库岸稳定性的关系。结果表明:(1)在一定初始干密度条件下,红土抗剪强度随水位升降循环次数增加而非线性减小,且在水位升降循环约10次时趋于稳定。(2)在一定水位升降速率、升降幅度和升降循环次数条件下,红土型库岸稳定安全系数随库岸边坡倾角的增加总体上呈减小的趋势,且在边坡倾角为50°左右存在稳定安全系数极小值。(3)在一定水位升降循环次数条件下,水位上升到坡高的60%左右为上升阶段的相对危险区域,且水位上升速率对库岸稳定安全系数影响很小;水位下降至坡高的70%左右为库水位下降阶段的相对危险区域,且水位下降速率越大,库岸稳定安全系数越小。(4)针对一定初始干密度,库岸稳定安全系数先随水位升降循环次数的增加而减小,但在水位升降循环次数约10次后逐渐趋于稳定。库岸岩土体性质及库岸边坡倾角、水位变化都会对库岸稳定产生影响。     

对废弃非金属矿山的再次开发利用的优点

随着经济发展对建筑材料的需求促使非金属矿山的开采,随着矿山矿产资源的枯竭,一些矿山面临关闭,一般闭坑矿山需投入大量资金进行恢复治理。对于废弃非金属矿山再次开发利用可节约土地资源,优化矿产资源利用,且具有良好的经济效益,因此具有良好的前景。     

Analysis of the extreme wave elevation due to second-order diffraction around a vertical cylinder

Statistical analysis of nonlinear random waves is important in coastal and ocean engineering. One approach for modeling nonlinear waves is second-order random wave theory, which involves sum- and difference-frequency interactions between wave components. The probability distribution of the non-Gaussian surface elevation can be solved using a technique developed by Kac and Siegert [21]. The wave field can be significantly modified by wave diffraction due to a structure, and the nonlinear diffracted wave elevation can be of interest in certain applications, such as the airgap prediction for an offshore structure. This paper investigates the wave statistics due to second-order diffraction, motivated by the scarcity of prior research. The crossing rate approach is used to evaluate the extreme wave elevation over a specified duration. The application is a bottom-supported cylindrical structure, for which semi-analytical solutions for the second-order transfer functions are available. A new efficient statistical method is developed to allow the distribution of the diffracted wave elevation to be obtained exactly, accounting for the statistical dependency between the linear, sum-frequency and difference-frequency components. Moreover, refinements are proposed to improve the efficiency for computing the free surface integral. The case study yields insights into the problem. In particular, the second-order nonlinearity is found to significantly amplify the extreme wave elevation, especially in the upstream region; conversely, the extreme elevation at an oblique location downstream is attenuated due to sheltering effects. The statistical dependency between the linear and sum-frequency components is also shown to be important for the extreme wave statistics.