利用新技术对大型土方工程量测算方法的改进

通过分析三角高程的误差来源和消弱方法以及土方量计算的特点,提出了一种利用全站仪结合南方公司的cass软件测算土方量的新方法,既减少了工作量,又提高了测算精度,适合大型土方工程量的测算。     

基于ArcGIS的降水量空间插值方法研究

目前对降水量空间插值方法的研究很多,针对反距离权重插值、样条函数插值、普通克里金插值在降水量空间插值中的缺陷,提出引入月平均总云量影响因子的协同克里金插值方法。并以内蒙古降水量数据为例进行实验,实验结果表明,引入月平均总云量影响因子的协同克里金插值在精度和拟合度方面得到改善。     

用神舟三号中分辨率成像光谱仪数据反演大气水汽

2002年3月中国神舟三号飞船发射成功，所携带的中分辨率成像光谱仪获取了一批940nm波段的遥感数据。本文用其中的部分资料做了反演水汽的试验，给出一些结果和分析。     

Reconstruction of Conceptual Prediction Model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming

With the influence of global warming,the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late 1970s.Although El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability,its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed,and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has weakened.This has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China.On the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer,as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases,i.e.before and after the significant global warming(1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012,respectively),we concluded that(1)Under different inter-decadal backgrounds,the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency,but in the latter phase of the global warming,the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)was on the strong side,the position of which was in the south,and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active,while the polar vortex extended to the south,and meridional circulation intensified.This circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III,and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I,thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China.(2)In the former phase,the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible differences.The impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)was great,and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was effective.In the latter phase,this identification ability decreased,while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North American(PNA)teleconnection pattern increased,and the identification ability of the PNA on Patterns II and III also increased.Based on the new inter-decadal climate background,this study reconstructs the conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in summer of eastern China by using the previous winter PNA and the Eurasian(EU)teleconnection indexes.The fitting effect was satisfying,though it is necessary to be further tested.     

Estimation of flow enhancement in the Kinneret watershed due to cloud seeding

A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×10⁶ m ³/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.     

降雨条件下边坡体积含水率变化规律研究

持续降雨是边坡发生失稳破坏的主要诱因之一,基于饱和—非饱和渗流理论,对梅州市大埔县某边坡的渗流场进行模拟,研究在不同降雨工况下该边坡土体体积含水率的时空变化规律。研究结果表明:相同条件下,降雨强度越大(降雨历时越长),边坡表层土体体积含水率变化越大;降雨强度60 mm/d历时1 d的暴雨对边坡表层土体体积含水率的增幅作用存在着一定的滞后性,其余工况未表现出滞后现象;降雨强度为120mm/d和300 mm/d的两种工况各研究点任意时段体积含水率较为接近;当降雨强度达到60 mm/d以上时,边坡内部体积含水率空间变化主要受降雨历时影响,降雨历时越长,降雨入渗深度和体积含水率变化越大。     

降雨对地电阻率干扰的分析

在一些地电阻率观测台站受本身台址条件的限制，观测深度较浅，因此，观测值受到降雨等气象因素的影响。本文选取昌黎台ＥＷ向１９８３－１９９４年观测资料月均值，用褶积滤波和多元回归方法对ρｓ进行了降雨校正，将将之作为一个灰箱系统，将资料外推至１９９５４上，然后与原始观测值作残差分析，取得了一定效果。     

Internal soil moisture and piezometric responses to rainfall-induced shallow slope failures

Better knowledge regarding internal soil moisture and piezometric responses in the process of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures is the key to an effective prediction of the landslide and/or debris flow initiation. To this end, internal soil moisture and piezometric response of 0.7-m-deep, 1.5-m-wide, 1.7-m-high, and 3.94-m-long semi-infinite sandy slopes rested on a bi-linear impermeable bedrock were explored using a chute test facility with artificial rainfall applications. The internal response time defined by the inflection point of the soil moisture and piezometric response curves obtained along the soil–bedrock interface were closely related to some critical failure states, such as the slope toe failure and extensive slope failures. It was also found that the response times obtained at the point of abrupt bedrock slope decrease can be used as indicators for the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures. An investigation of spatial distributions of soil water content, ω (or degrees of saturation, S_r), in the slope at critical failure states shows that the 0.2 m – below – surface zone remains unsaturated with S_r 40–60%, regardless of their distances from the toe and the rainfall intensity. Non-uniform distributions of ω (or S_r) along the soil–bedrock interface at critical failure states were always associated with near-saturation states (S_r 80–100%) around the point of bedrock slope change or around the transient ‘toe’ upstream of the slumped mass induced by the retrogressive failure of the slope. These observations suggest the important role of the interflow along the soil–bedrock interface and the high soil water content (or high porewater pressure) around the point of bedrock slope deflection in the rainfall-induced failure of sandy slopes consisting of shallow impermeable bedrocks. The present study proposes an ‘internal response time’ criterion to substantiate the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow slope failures. It is believed that the ‘internal response time’ reflects the overall characteristics of a slope under rainfall infiltration and can be as useful as the conventional meteorology-based threshold times. The ‘internal response time’ theory can be generalized via numerical modeling of slope hydrology, slope geology and slope stability in the future.     

Copula-based mixed models for bivariate rainfall data: an empirical study in regression perspective

A comprehensive parametric approach to study the probability distribution of rainfall data at scales of hydrologic interest (e.g. from few minutes up to daily) requires the use of mixed distributions with a discrete part accounting for the occurrence of rain and a continuous one for the rainfall amount. In particular, when a bivariate vector (X, Y) is considered (e.g. simultaneous observations from two rainfall stations or from two instruments such as radar and rain gauge), it is necessary to resort to a bivariate mixed model. A quite flexible mixed distribution can be defined by using a 2-copula and four marginals, obtaining a bivariate copula-based mixed model. Such a distribution is able to correctly describe the intermittent nature of rainfall and the dependence structure of the variables. Furthermore, without loss of generality and with gain of parsimony this model can be simplified by some transformations of the marginals. The main goals of this work are: (1) to empirically explore the behaviour of the parameters of marginal transformations as a function of time scale and inter-gauge distance, by analysing data from a network of rain gauges; (2) to compare the properties of the regression curves associated to the copula-based mixed model with those derived from the model simplified by transformations of the marginals. The results from the investigation of transformations’ parameters are in agreement with the expected theoretical dependence on inter-gauge distance, and show dependence on time scale. The analysis on the regression curves points out that: (1) a copula-based mixed model involves regression curves quite close to some non-parametric models; (2) the performance of the parametric regression decreases in the same cases in which non-parametric regression shows some instability; (3) the copula-based mixed model and its simplified version show similar behaviour in term of regression for mid-low values of rainfall. An erratum to this article can be found at