2005年-2014年京津冀对流层NO2柱浓度时空变化及影响因素

基于臭氧监测仪OMI对流层NO₂柱浓度产品研究了京津冀城市群2005年-2014年NO₂时空变化及影响因素:(1)10年柱浓度年均增长率为3.35%,且年度波动较大。忽略2008年国家奥运会的环境治理所引起的变化,2005年-2011年NO₂呈逐渐升高趋势;2012年-2014年呈逐渐降低趋势,以2014年下降最为显著。(2)呈西北低东南高的趋势。燕山-太行山山系以北的承德和张家口市浓度较低,山系以南主要有北京-天津-唐山与石家庄-邢台-邯郸两个污染中心。(3)京津冀北部三面环山不利于NO₂的扩散,夏季丰富的降水对NO₂具有显著湿沉降作用。(4)通过相关性分析、文献及国家政策印证等方法,发现地区产业及能源结构很大程度上决定了地区的污染来源。北京市10年来第三产业一直处于主导且稳步提高,煤炭消耗量低,但汽车保有量增加了1.5倍,主要来源为机动车尾气排放;天津市第二产业比第三产业比重略高,煤炭消耗量是北京的两倍之余,但汽车保有量仅是北京市的一半,由此可知工业排放和机动车是共同来源;河北省第二产业比重很高,燃煤量占京津冀地区的80.6%,河北省工业排放是NO₂的主要来源,但近几年随着机动车保有量的剧增,其尾气排放分担率不可小觑。     

A rapid approach to estimate the rockfall energies and distances at the base of rock cliffs

This paper presents a new methodology for estimating the expected energies and first impact distances at the base of a rock cliff, subject to the geometry and properties of the cliff and the representative block being known. The method is based on a sensitivity analysis, conducted by means of kinematic simulations and carried out for a large range of input parameters and their combinations, taking into account the uncertainty associated with their estimate. The proposed approach is validated by comparing predictions to experimental data and shows great potential for a quick qualitative hazard assessment.     

Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European‐scale context

A number of extensive droughts and destructive floods have occurred in Poland in the last 25 years; hence, projections of low and high river flows are of considerable interest and importance. In the first part of this paper, projections of low and high flows in the rivers of the Vistula and the Odra basins (VOB region), for two future time horizons, are presented. Projections are based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model simulations driven by results of the EURO‐CORDEX experiment under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The VOB region covers most of Poland and parts of five neighboring countries, giving this study an international relevance. In the second part of the paper, a review of projections of low and high flows in rivers in Central and Eastern Europe is presented. Despite a substantial spread of flow projections, the main message of the modelling part is that increases of both low and high flows are dominating. The magnitude of increase of low flow is considerably higher than that of high flow. In other words, future streamflow droughts are projected to be less severe, whereas, in contrast, river floods are projected to increase, which is a challenge for flood risk reduction, water management, and climate change adaptation. There is an overall agreement of our findings for the VOB region with projections of hydrological extremes from large‐scale models forced by EURO‐CORDEX results in the European‐scale studies.     

Numerical analysis of projectile penetration and perforation of plain and fiber reinforced concrete slabs

The research presented in this paper deals with the numerical analysis of projectile impact on regular strength concrete (RSC), high‐strength concrete (HSC), and engineered cementitious composites (ECC) using the Lattice Discrete Particle Model (LDPM). The LDPM is chosen in this study as it naturally captures the failure mechanisms at the length scale of coarse aggregate of concrete, and its capabilities include the accurate depiction of both intrinsic and apparent rate effects in concrete, as well as fiber reinforcement effects. The model is used to predict the experimental impact response performed by four independent testing laboratories, and for each data set the model parameters are calibrated and validated using a combination of uniaxial compression, triaxial compression, uniaxial strain compression, and dogbone tests. In the first study, perforation experiments on RSC and HSC for varied impact velocities are carried out, and the exit velocity is compared with the available experimental data. The second study focuses on ECC, where multiple impact of steel and plastic fiber reinforced concrete panels are explored. A third investigation is performed on four RSC panels with varied thicknesses and subjected to the same impact velocity. In this instance, the model is used to predict the penetration depths for the different cases. Finally, in the last study, the response of large‐thickness infinite panels of sizes ranging from 300 mm to 700 mm under projectile impact is considered. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geology of five small Australian impact craters

Here we present detailed geological maps and cross-sections of Liverpool, Wolfe Creek, Boxhole, Veevers and Dalgaranga craters. Liverpool crater and Wolfe Creek Meteorite Crater are classic bowl-shaped, Barringer-type craters. Liverpool was likely formed during the Neoproterozoic and was filled and covered with sediments soon thereafter. In the Cenozoic, this cover was exhumed exposing the crater's brecciated wall rocks. Wolfe Creek Meteorite Crater displays many striking features, including well-bedded ejecta units, crater-floor faults and sinkholes, a ringed aeromagnetic anomaly, rim-skirting dunes, and numerous iron-rich shale balls. Boxhole Meteorite Crater, Veevers Meteorite Crater and Dalgaranga crater are smaller, Odessa-type craters without fully developed, steep, overturned rims. Boxhole and Dalgaranga craters are developed in highly foliated Precambrian basement rocks with a veneer of Holocene colluvium. The pre-existing structure at these two sites complicates structural analyses of the craters, and may have influenced target deformation during impact. Veevers Meteorite Crater is formed in Cenozoic laterites, and is one of the best-preserved impact craters on Earth. The craters discussed herein were formed in different target materials, ranging from crystalline rocks to loosely consolidated sediments, containing evidence that the impactors struck at an array of angles and velocities. This facilitates a comparative study of the influence of these factors on the structural and topographic form of small impact craters.     

Suitability of CLIGEN precipitation estimates based on an updated database and their impacts on urban runoff: a case study of the Great Lakes Region,USA

ABSTRACT

Weather generators rely on historical meteorological records to simulate time series of synthetic weather sequences, the quality of which has direct influence on model applications. The climate generator CLIGEN’s database has recently been updated to comprise consistent historical records from 1974 to 2013 (updated CLIGEN database, UCD) compared to the current database in which records are of different lengths. In this study, CLIGEN’s performance in estimating precipitation using UCD (eight stations) and the subsequent impact on urban runoff simulations (371 stations) were evaluated in the Great Lakes Region, USA. Generally, UCD-based precipitation could replicate observed daily precipitation up to the 99.5th percentile, but maximum precipitation was underestimated. Results from the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment model using UCD-based precipitation showed about 0.57 billion cubic meters more (14.9%) average annual runoff being simulated compared with simulations based on the current CLIGEN database. Overall, CLIGEN with the updated database was found suitable for providing precipitation estimates and for use with modeling urban runoff or urbanization effects.     

Assessment of climate change adaptation costs for the U.S. road network

The U.S. road network is one of the nation's most important capital assets and is vital to the functioning of the U.S. economy. Maintaining this asset involves approximately $134 billion of government funds annually from Federal, State, and local agencies. Climate change may represent a risk or an opportunity to this network, as changes in climate stress will affect the resources necessary for both road maintenance and construction projects. This paper develops an approach for estimating climate-related changes in road maintenance and construction costs such that the current level of service provided by roads is maintained over time. We estimate these costs under a baseline scenario in which annual mean global temperature increases by 1.5 °C in 2050 relative to the historical average and a mitigation scenario under which this increase in mean temperature is limited to 1.0 °C. Depending on the nature of the changes in climate that occur in a given area, our analysis suggests that climate change may lead to a reduction in road maintenance and/or construction costs or an increase in costs. Overall, however, our analysis shows that climate change, if unchecked, will increase the annual costs of keeping paved and unpaved roads in service by $785 million in present value terms by 2050. When not discounted, this figure increases to $2.8 billion. Policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to reduce these costs by approximately $280 million in present value terms and by $885 million when not discounted. These costs vary substantially by region and time period, information that should be important for transportation planners at the national, state, and local levels.     

Risks for poisoning of coastal and inland population due to asteroid impacts in Southern regions of Black Sea

The hydrogen sulfide rich waters of the Black Sea pose a potential danger for the surrounding land regions. The impact of an asteroid exceeding tens of meters in size may cause both a tsunami wave and a catastrophic poisonous gas release in the atmosphere. Some effects of this last phenomenon on the Southern Black Sea coastal regions are evaluated in this paper. The initial surface area of the poisonous cloud depends on asteroid size. The initial thickness of the cloud depends, in addition, on sea depth at impact location. The wind speed plays an important role in H₂S cloud dynamics. At 10 m/s wind speed, the cloud margins reach 185 km from the impact location in about 3 h. The maximum distance traveled by the hydrogen sulfide cloud increases by increasing the asteroid size and wind speed. The influence of the impact position on the distance traveled by hydrogen sulfide clouds is rather weak, as long as the seawater depth does not change significantly. The land surface area covered by the H₂S cloud generated by a 1,000 m size asteroid ranges between about 6,400 and 12,000 km². This may affect up to 3,000,000 people. When a 250 m size asteroid is considered, the covered land surface area ranges between about 1,400 and 2,100 km² and up to 120,000 people may be affected. In case of a 70 m size asteroid, the cloud covers up to 280 km² of land. This may affect up to about 70,000 people. These evaluations do not include the population of the towns on or near the seashore. A simple methodology to estimate the environmental risks of the potential asteroid impact was proposed. Sites less than 160 km from the impact place are at risk.     

科尔沁沙地自然与人为因素对沙漠化影响的累加效应分析

采用滑动平均法分析了科尔沁沙地年平均温度、年降水量(代表自然因素)和耕地指数、草场载畜量(代表人为因素)对沙漠化影响的累加效应。结果表明,年平均温度和年降水量的累加作用持续的时间较短(在4a之内),其中年平均温度对沙漠化影响的累加效应作用在2a最大,但作用不明显;年降水量对沙漠化的影响以4a最高,累加效应最明显,关联系数为0.801,而且二者之间有较显著的回归关系。年降水量和年平均温度的波动特点是决定累加作用时间和影响强度的关键。代表人为因素的耕地指数和草场载畜量对沙漠化影响的累加效应都比较明显、作用持续的时间较长(大于8a),其中耕地指数对沙漠化的影响以7a的累加效应最明显;草场载畜量对沙漠化的影响以10a的累加效应最明显,耕地指数和草场载畜量与沙漠化之间存在着较显著的回归关系。人口持续增长导致的对资源环境压力的增大是耕地指数和草场载畜量对沙漠化影响产生累加效应的根本原因。     

连云港西大堤工程建设影响作用评价

西大堤的建成使连云港由原来的海峡通道型港口变为半封闭的人工海湾型港口,风浪条件改善,可利用的港口岸线大大加长,为连云港亿吨大港的建设提供了契机,也改善了连云港与东西连岛的交通条件,促进了旅游业的发展.另一方面,也改变了海湾内水动力与沉积环境.大堤建成后,湾内潮波由前进波转变为驻波,水体交换能力减弱,湾内水质污染加重,尤其是湾顶水域污染最重;同时加剧了湾内泥沙的淤积,在西大堤内侧形成新的潮滩,位于湾顶的老海滨浴场被淤废.由于西大堤封堵了连云海峡西口门,使得近岸泥沙的运移路径改变,北部的泥沙流自海州湾东去沿大堤折向东西连岛方向,在大堤的外侧和东西连岛外缘形成新的落淤场所,大沙湾和苏马湾海滨浴场受到影响.沉积作用的加剧已影响到港口及周边海岸与水利设施的正常运作,因而应加强对港区及周边海洋环境的监测与研究,缓建西大堤内侧北港区码头,并对西大堤西端进行透空式改造,以从根本上解决港区泥沙淤积问题.