Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

A critical review of groundwater budget myth, safe yield and sustainability

The principle of water balance is well known, but its application often causes controversy. One recent debate is the use of the water balance equation to determine the safe yield and sustainable yield. Two extreme opinions exist on natural groundwater recharge. One misconception is that the development of groundwater is considered to be safe if the pumping rate does not exceed the rate of natural recharge. Another is that the sustainable pumping rate has nothing to do with natural recharge, but depends on the increased recharge and decreased discharge (called capture) induced by pumping. The truth is that both the natural recharge and dynamic development of the capture determine the safe yield or sustainable yield of a groundwater basin. This paper clarifies the water budget controversy and uses the water balance equation to critically analyse the concepts of safe yield and sustainable yield. Numerical simulation of a hypothetical case was used to demonstrate the natural groundwater balance, effects of pumping and the dynamic development of the capture.     

航天器工作的地磁环境

航天器工作环境中的地磁场可以用于定向和姿态控制，为空间飞行提供了一个天然的坐标系，但地磁场与带电、带磁的航天器相互作用又在一定程度上影响着航天器的运动参数（如自旋、定向、轨道等），地磁场的变化，特别是磁暴和亚暴期间剧烈的磁场扰动会对航天器的正常运行和航天器仪器的有效工作造成重大影响，与磁场变化相伴随的磁层、电离层扰动，高能粒子流对航天器的工作、空间通讯、对宇航员的安全都可能有严重影响。磁扰期间，中性大气的密度、温度的变化也会影响航天器的轨道和姿态，本文从地磁场结构和变化综合评价航天器工作的地磁场环境，为航天器利用地磁场和防护地磁场变化带来的有害影响提供一些背景材料。     

Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches

River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nitrogen and carbon cycling in the North Sea and exchange with the North Atlantic—A model study. Part I. Nitrogen budget and fluxes

The three-dimensional biogeochemical model ECOHAM was applied to the Northwest European Shelf (47°41′–63°53′N, 15°5′W–13°55′E) for the years 1993–1996. Nitrogen budgets were calculated for the years 1995 and 1996 for the inner shelf region, the North Sea (511,725 km²). Simulated temperatures as well as nitrate, oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations are compared with observations.     

Hydro‐meteorological drivers and sources of suspended sediment flux in the pro‐glacial zone of the retreating Castle Creek Glacier,Cariboo Mountains,British Columbia,Canada

Glaciers are major agents of erosion that increase sediment load to the downstream fluvial system. The Castle Creek Glacier, British Columbia, Canada, has retreated ~1.0 km in the past 70 years. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and streamflow (Q) were monitored independently at five sites within its pro‐glacial zone over a 60 day period from July to September 2011, representing part of the ablation season. Meteorological data were collected from two automatic weather stations proximal to the glacier. The time‐series were divided into hydrologic days and the shape and magnitude of the SSC response to hydro‐meteorological conditions (‘cold and wet’, ‘hot and dry’, ‘warm and damp’, and ‘storm’) were categorized using principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA). Suspended sediment load (SSL) was computed and summarized for the categories. The distribution of monitoring sites and results of the multivariate statistical analyses describe the temporal and spatial variability of suspended sediment flux and the relative importance of glacial and para‐glacial sediment sources in the pro‐glacial zone. During the 2011 study period, ~ 60% of the total SSL was derived from the glacial stream and sediment deposits proximal to the terminus of the glacier; during ‘storm’ events, that contribution dropped to ~40% as the contribution from diffuse and point sources of sediment throughout the pro‐glacial zone and within the meltwater channels increased. While ‘storm’ events accounted for just 3% of the study period, SSL was ~600% higher than the average over the monitoring period, and ~20% of the total SSL was generated in that time. Determining how hydro‐meteorological conditions and sediment sources control sediment fluxes will assist attempts to predict how pro‐glacial zones respond to future climate changes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismostratigraphic analysis with centennial to decadal time resolution of the sediment sink in the Ganges-Brahmaputra subaqueous delta

The deltas of large rivers have become the focus of many research studies due to their vulnerability in times of expected sea level rise. One major delta in peril is the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (Bangladesh) due to its low elevation and high subsidence rate. In this study, high-resolution seismic and sediment echosounder data of the subaqueous part of the delta are analyzed by an integrated seismo-acoustic stratigraphic approach.Transparent Units (TUs) are the most prominent, continuously traceable architectural elements within the sigmoidal clinoform. TUs consist of homogenized sediments and are interpreted to be formed by liquefaction flows generated by subduction-related earthquakes of the nearby plate-boundary. The uppermost TUs are related to the historical well known major earthquakes which occurred in 1762, 1897 and 1950. Using the TUs as time marks the mean annual storage rates for the intervals could be assessed. A direct comparison of echosounder data gathered in 1994, 1997 and 2006 is used as another method to estimate the last decade mean annual storage rate.In general, the averaged decadal to centennial mean annual storage rates in the foreset beds have significantly decreased within the last ∼300 years from 22% to 18% and down to 13.8% of the present total annual fluviatile suspension supply to the delta (10⁹ t a⁻¹). This decrease, however, is not evenly distributed along the foreset beds. In the western clinoform mean annual storage rates slightly decreased during the last ∼300 years, whereas in the eastern clinoform the mean annual storage rate of the last decade is one-third of the initial value in the late eighteenth century.The variation of clinoform slope angles generally coincides with the local accumulation rates but a variable degree of asymmetry gives some new insights in the future trend of the subaqueous delta development. The sink of sediment in the western clinoform depocentre landward of the inflection point, where shape changes from convex to concave, is producing an increase in concavity.The decline in monsoon precipitation over the last centuries is assumed to have significantly contributed to the decreased mean annual storage rate in the eastern clinoform where the convexity of the clinoform increases seaward of the inflection point. It is very likely that the whole depocentre of the fluvial sediment load is shifting toward the western subaqueous delta and to the Swatch of No Ground Canyon and, thereby, increasing the export to the deep-sea fan.     

Above‐stream microclimate and stream surface energy exchanges in a wildfire‐disturbed riparian zone

Stream temperature and riparian microclimate were characterized for a 1·5 km wildfire‐disturbed reach of Fishtrap Creek, located north of Kamloops, British Columbia. A deterministic net radiation model was developed using hemispherical canopy images coupled with on‐site microclimate measurements. Modelled net radiation agreed reasonably with measured net radiation. Air temperature and humidity measured at two locations above the stream, separated by 900 m, were generally similar, whereas wind speed was poorly correlated between the two sites. Modelled net radiation varied considerably along the reach, and measurements at a single location did not provide a reliable estimate of the modelled reach average. During summer, net radiation dominated the surface heat exchanges, particularly because the sensible and latent heat fluxes were normally of opposite sign and thus tended to cancel each other. All surface heat fluxes shifted to negative values in autumn and were of similar magnitude through winter. In March, net radiation became positive, but heat gains were cancelled by sensible and latent heat fluxes, which remained negative. A modelling exercise using three canopy cover scenarios (current, simulated pre‐wildfire and simulated complete vegetation removal) showed that net radiation under the standing dead trees was double that modelled for the pre‐fire canopy cover. However, post‐disturbance standing dead trees reduce daytime net radiation reaching the stream surface by one‐third compared with complete vegetation removal. The results of this study have highlighted the need to account for reach‐scale spatial variability of energy exchange processes, especially net radiation, when modelling stream energy budgets. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄土高原陆面水分的凝结现象及收支特征试验研究

中国黄土高原是全球独特的地理区域,其陆面水分过程比较特殊。利用黄土高原陆面过程试验研究(LOPEX)的陇中黄土高原定西陆面过程综合观测站的资料,分析了陆面水分凝结现象及其出现频率与局地微气象条件的关系,研究了露水(霜)量及其出现频率的季节分布特征以及受降水和天气阴、晴的影响规律。同时,对比分析了降水、露水、雾水和土壤吸附水对陆面水分的贡献率,讨论了涡动相关法、蒸渗计和蒸发皿观测的陆面蒸发量的差别及其与陆面水分来源的年平衡关系,给出了半干旱区陆面水分平衡的日循环特征。发现露水对风速、大气湿度、近地层温度梯度的依赖很强,一般在风速为1.5 m/s、相对湿度大于80%和逆温强度为0.25℃的情况下露水(霜)量最大;刚降水后的晴天露水量比较大;实际蒸散量与蒸发力的差距十分明显,陆面水分平衡特征表现为一个"呼吸"过程。     

Kinetic shear resistance,fluid pressures and radiation efficiency during seismic faulting

Summary During earthquake faulting, radiation efficiency and the degree stress relief are critically dependent on the kinetic shear resistance. This is often assumed to stay constant during slip, but geological evidence suggests that for moderate or large shallow earthquakes it may decrease dramatically to near-zero values once slip is initiated, either by melt formation or by transient increases in fluid pressure on the fault plane. The latter, probably more common process may arise partly through an interaction between temperature and water pressure, and partly through dilatancy recovery as shear stress is relieved. If the fault remains undrained, stress relief should be absolute with seismic efficiency reaching high values, so that stress drops give a measure of the level of tectonic shear stress in fault zones. Supporting evidence comes from the observation that apparent stress is generally about half the stress drop.