青岛旅游商品开发的回顾与前瞻

青岛旅游商品开发拥有辉煌历史，曾经领导全国消费潮流。但从旅游经济产业结构来看，青岛旅游商品开发存在如下问题：缺乏品牌和特色商品，小规模开发与经营，品种和质量有待加强，流通渠道不畅，购物环境不理想和商品的旅游后影响力不强等。提出相应开发对策；政府宏观指导，名企参与开发，丰富品种和特色，完善购物环境，使物流渠道畅通，将市场分类分层，利用节庆造势，周边联合连动和形成购物胜地。     

东中国海环流及其季节变化的数值模拟

关于东中国海环流的研究，国内外学者已做了大量的工作。早期科学家们主要依赖于对温盐资料和少数测流资料的分析研究对渤、黄、东海的环流结构有了较系统和深入的认识。东中国海环流是由一个气旋式的“流涡”组成，东侧主要是北上的黑潮-对马暖流-黄海暖流及其延伸部分；西侧为南下的沿岸流系。黑潮对东中国海环流的影响是如此之大，以致于除了某些局部区域外，上述海域主要流系的冬、夏季分布形式比较相似而无本质上的差异(胡敦欣等，1993)。但本文所研究海域正处于世界上最显著的季风区，冬、夏季盛行风向基本相反，过渡季节(春、秋季)风向多变，风力减弱；海洋热盐结构季节变化明显(如冬季混合强，而夏季层化明显等)，这些因素都使得东中国海环流存在着较明显的季节变化。 自20世纪80年代以来，东中国海环流的数值模拟工作逐步展开，并已成为研究环流结构及其形成机制的强有力工具。但由于数值模式本身以及计算方案的缺陷(如有些学者用固定的风场、温盐场对东中国海环流进行诊断模拟等)和观测资料的不足，数值模拟的结果难以得到验证，渤、黄、东海的环流研究中仍有大量的问题存在争议，以待澄清。例如，台湾暖流的来源、流径;对马暖流的来源;夏季黄海暖流的流径以及黄海冷水团环流等均有不同的论述。对黄、东海环流季节变化的数值模拟工作也较少，多用冬、夏典型月份的风场强迫积分至稳定态，给出冬、夏季环流，这种做法值得商榷。三维环流模式很难在1个月内达到稳定态，尤其是夏季层化明显、风力减弱的情况下，非常定风场的影响更应引起人们的重视。 本文采用比较符合实际的计算方案，用年循环风场和海面热通量场为外强迫，对渤、黄、东海的环流及其季节变化进行了模拟，并对一些争议问题进行了探讨。     

港口靠船桩工作性状计算的双参数法

港口靠船桩是承受重复性荷载或多循环荷载的一种横向承载桩。双参数法能较好地描述靠船桩 (单桩、群桩 )的桩土工作性状。用双参数法进行计算时 ,所给的地面条件必须由重复荷载或多循环荷载作用下实测出来。根据现场试桩资料 ,标定桩土参数 ,即k =mx1/n的指数l/n、桩土相对柔度系数α、桩土综合刚度EI等值 ,可以用来设计试桩附近局部地区同类条件下的其它长桩。对于没有进行试桩的某些工程 ,可以联合运用双参数法和p -y曲线法进行桩的分析     

The CANALES experiment (1996-1998). Interannual, seasonal, and mesoscale variability of the circulation in the Balearic Channels

Repeated hydrographic casts, mooring time series and satellite sea surface temperature collected during the CANALES experiment (1996–98) are used to describe the thermohaline circulation in the Balearic Channels (western Mediterranean) and to analyze its variability. Mass transports are estimated by inverse calculations. The role played by each channel in the meridional water exchange is clarified: the Ibiza Channel funnels southward cool, saline, northern waters whereas the Mallorca Channel appears as the preferred route for the northward progression of warm, fresh, southern waters. A neat interannual trend is revealed by the continuous decrease of the amount of Western Mediterranean Intermediate Waters (WIW) brought by the Northern Current, reflecting the increase in temperature of the winter mixed layer in the northern Mediterranean that occurred each year between 1996 and 1998. A clear seasonal signal was also seen in the transport of the Northern Current which decreased from 1 to 1.4 Sv in winter to < 0.5 Sv in summer. The current intensified again in fall. A number of mesoscale eddies, from 20 to 70 km in size, most of them anticyclonic vortex eddies were brought by the unstable Northern Current, these eddies strongly perturbed the water exchange in the Ibiza Channel forcing retroflections of northern waters back to the north-east into the Balearic Current. These eddies either stayed stalled for several months in the Gulf of Valencia to the north of the channel, or were slowly funnelled southward through the channel narrows. A decreasing trend was observed in the mesoscale activity of the Northern Current between 1996 and 1998. Conversely, large, anticyclonic eddies, 150-km diameter, progressively invaded the Algerian Basin to the south of the channels in 1997–98 and forcing northward inflows (up to 0.75 Sv) of fresh and warm waters of Atlantic origin (AW) into the Mallorca Channel. The marked interannual differences observed in both northern and southern eddy activity may be linked to the interannual variability of the large scale thermohaline circulation.     

Recovery of thermohaline circulation under CO2 stabilization and overshoot scenarios

In this study we examine the behavior of the thermohaline circulation, as simulated by the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), for several centuries following CO₂ stabilization for the SRES B1 and A1B scenarios and for an “overshoot” scenario in which CO₂ levels temporarily reach the same level as in the A1B scenario before declining to an ultimate stabilization level that is identical to the B1 case. While we find no evidence for irreversible changes of the thermohaline circulation in the overshoot experiment, the interplay of the different timescales of the temperature response of the surface and interior ocean does lead to a number of differences in the long-term response of the ocean between it and the B1 stabilization scenario where the same GHG levels are approached by different paths. The stronger initial warming and its slow penetration into the deeper ocean, followed by a transient surface cooling in the overshoot scenario leads to lower static stability, deeper mixing, and a more rapid recovery of the thermohaline circulation than in the B1 stabilization scenario. While the overshoot scenario recovers surface conditions (e.g. SST, sea ice extent) very similar to the B1 scenario shortly after reaching the same GHG levels, the additional accumulation of heat in the interior ocean during the period of higher forcing causes the global mean ocean temperature and steric sea level to remain higher than in the B1 stabilization scenario for at least another several centuries.     

Anomalous change of the Antarctic sea ice and global sea level change

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Circulation and Brackish Water Dispersal in a Coastal Lagoon of Southwest Taiwan

Modest observations and numerical experiments were conducted to investigate circulation and brackish water dispersal in a coastal lagoon southwest of Taiwan. The Chi-Ku Lagoon, partially shielded from the sea by a string of sandbar barriers with two entrances among them, receives modest and episodic runoff from Chi-Ku Stream. Flood and ebb tidal streams entering and leaving the two entrances are found to converge and diverge in a flow stagnation area inside the lagoon. Under weak wind conditions, brackish water is preferentially retained in the flow stagnation area. Besides the observations, scenario runs using a three-dimensional numerical model also indicate strong modulation by monsoon winds. Both summer southwest monsoon and winter northeast monsoon reduce brackish water retention; the latter is found to be more effective. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Numerical study of the summer temperature decrease induced by the enhancement of estuarine circulation in Fukuoka Bay

The Princeton Ocean Model with realistic bottom topography has been used to investigate the summer temperature decrease in the past 25 years in Fukuoka Bay. The vertical mixing of the model is expressed by a scheme that effectively includes the influences of interannual variations of tidal currents and wind. The results show that the historical temperature decrease in summer has been caused by tidal currents and wind weakening in the past 25 years in Fukuoka Bay. The weakening of tidal currents and wind gives rise to weakening of the vertical mixing, and to enhancement of the estuarine circulation in the bay. The enhancement of the estuarine circulation activates the inflow of open-ocean water toward Fukuoka Bay. Coastal water in summer has therefore tended to be colder and more saline in the past 25 years. This interannual variation in coastal waters is called “open-oceanization” in this study. On the basis of the numerical model, it is anticipated that the temperature will decrease by 0.2°C in the next 25 years in Fukuoka Bay if the tide and wind weaken persistently as in the present bay.     

0220号热带风暴(米克拉)特征分析

南海是热带气旋活动较为频繁的地区之一。该地区因其独特的地理环境和复杂的热带大气环流系统，在热带气旋预报工作上存在一定的困难。本文在分析一些气象图表资料的基础上，对2002年第20号热带风暴(米克拉)的形成、发展及消亡进行了探讨和研究。主要从形成的背景环流，气旋的结构等方面入手，总结出一些该气旋所具备韵特有流场，从而为以后的南海自生热带气旋预报工作积累一定经验。     

冲绳海槽热流机制浅析

冲绳海槽是一个高热流区，平均热流值极高，但不均匀，实测最小值与最大值相差三个数量级以上，结合海槽地区的构造和地球物理特征，探讨了导致这一高而分散热流特征的多种因素。包括异常壳幔结构。海底热液循环以及地下水对流等，并分析了相应的控制机制。