Clean development mechanism: leverage for development?

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to show that the investments through the clean development mechanism (CDM) can exert a leverage effect to (i) make attractive to developing countries non-binding commitments and the adoption of national policies and measures; this comes as a guarantee of non-conditionally of the mechanism to strictly environmental concerns and (ii) create a flow of additional investments and technological transfer from Annex B countries to non-Annex B countries.

The Indian power sector has been chosen as an example of a sector where institutional barriers, market imperfections, and tariff distortions create a great space for Pareto improvements and leave an important potential for no-regret measures: technological transfer, air conditioned systems, transport infrastructures and removal of subsidies on consumption.

This paper presents a micro-economic formalisation on (i) the evolution of profitability of current emitting technologies used in the power sector under the adoption of national policies and measures and (ii) the impact on renewable energy technologies competitiveness of emission credits in the context of CDM. This formalisation has been developed to enable quantitative simulation. A first exercise using the Markal model (used in 77 countries) on the electric sector in India enabled us to simulate the leverage effect of emission credits on additional incomes taken as a proxy for development.     

THE FREE-WILSON PARADIGM REDUX:SIGNIFICANCE OF THE FREE-WILSON COEFFICIENTS,INSIGNIFICANCE OF COEFFICIENT ‘UNCERTAINTIES’ AND STATISTICAL SINS

The Free-Wilson paradigm is an established and powerful tool for quantitatively relating activity withchemical structure.Current implementations of the paradigm,however,are flawed both conceptually andin execution.As part of an attempt to more fully realize the promise of the paradigm,it was necessaryto examine these limitations in detail.This report introduces a robust,theory-founded Free-Wilson implementation:stepwise principalcomponents regression analysis(SPCRA).SPCRA is computationally superior to previousimplementations but does not in itself correct their conceptual flaws.The development of SPCRA did,however,facilitate derivation of a simple and chemically significantinterpretation of the Free-Wilson structure-activity model.A number of statistical aspects of this modelcommonly misused in previous applications are discussed at length.These discussions provide criticalbackground for the development of an alternative implementation of the Free-Wilson paradigm.     

辽河曙光油田蒸气吞吐开采过程中水岩作用的研究

稠油蒸气吞吐开采过程中，注入储层的高温水蒸气与储层岩石发生了强烈的水岩作用，使注入水的化学成分产生了显著的变化，根据这种变化，结合水岩作用室内模拟实验的研究成果，在确定水岩作用方式的基础上，使用元素质量守衡计算方法对辽河曙光油田的水岩作用量进行了计算，结果表明，注入水在储层运动过程中，溶解了大量的石英和高岭石，同时沉淀出大量的钠蒙脱石，该结果很好地吻合了室内实验成果。     

极不充分采动条件下地表下沉规律及计算方法研究

随着煤矿开采的不断加深,地表呆动程度(开采宽度D与开采深度H之比DIH)不断降低,并逐渐趋向于极不充分采动,同样长度的工作面对地表的影响程度极不同于浅部开采。因此,需要重新认识深部开采时的地表下沉规律。极不充分采动条件下地表下沉规律具有特殊性。经过对国内外大量观测资料的综合分析,发现当开采宽度小于地表下沉起动距时(极不充分采动),地表的下沉或地表下沉率(q′／q)为零。当开采宽度达到地表移动起动距时,地表下沉缓慢增长;达到临界采动距时,地表下沉急剧增大。地表下沉率(q′／q)与开采宽、深比D／H之间为负指数函数关系。在极不充分采动条件下进行地表下沉预计时必须对概率积分法的下沉系数进行修正。算例证明了本文给出计算方法的可行性。但这种修正方法如何与概率积分法相统一仍需进一步研究。     

Ab-initio calculations of the proton location in topaz-OH,Al<Subscript>2</Subscript>SiO<Subscript>4</Subscript>(OH)<Subscript>2</Subscript>

The position of hydrogen in the structure of topaz-OH was determined by means of ab-initio quantum-mechanic calculations. Static lattice energy calculations predict the existence of four non-equivalent positions of protons, which are characterized by O4–H1... O1, O4–H2... O2, O4–H3... O3 and O4–H4... O4 hydrogen bonds. The distribution of the protons between positions of local equilibrium is controlled by the proton–proton avoidance rule and the strength of the hydrogen bonds. The most favourable configuration of hydrogen atoms is achieved for adjacent protons, which form O4–H3... O3 and O4–H4... O4 hydrogen bonds, respectively. The thermal excitation of atoms at a temperature of 55 K is large enough for the hydrogen atoms occasionally to change their positions to form O4–H1... O1 and O4–H2... O2 bonds. At ambient pressures and higher temperatures the protons are in a dynamic exchange between the allowed positions of local minima. As a consequence, for nearly room-temperature conditions, the dynamic change between different structural configurations leads to the violation of all possible symmetry elements and with that to space group #E5/E5#1. The flipping of the protons between different sites is achieved by simple rotation of the OH-dipole and does not produce any significant distortion of the framework of topaz, whose symmetry remains that of the space group Pbnm. Therefore, no reduction of symmetry has been observed in former X-ray studies on topaz-OH. Calculated IR absorption spectra of topaz-OH were found to be in good agreement with measured spectra. According to the calculations, the two favourable configurations of protons might correspond to the measured peak splitting within the OH-stretching range. An experimentally observed low-frequency band at 3520 cm^–1 was assigned to the OH-stretching of the O4–H3... O3 bond, while the band at 3600 cm^–1 was attributed to OH-stretching of the O4–H4... O4 hydrogen bond. The broad peak in FAR-IR frequency range at 100–150 cm^–1 is attributed to the stretching of H3... O3 and H4... O4 contacts. The rate of proton exchange at 670 K among different sites was estimated by ab-inito molecular dynamic simulations. The calculations predict that flipping of adjacent protons between O4–H3... O3 and O4–H4... O4 bonds at 670 K occur at a rate of about 1.96 THz.     

高分辨率遥感影像通用定位模型探讨

由于通用传感器模型与具体的传感器无关,因而更能适应传感器成像方式多样化的发展要求,所以通用传感器模型的研究已成为当前摄影测量与遥感领域的一个重要研究方向。在对包括多项式模型、直接线性变换模型和有理函数模型在内的通用传感器模型的定义,参数解算和模型定位进行系统归纳的基础上,对基于通用传感器模型的高分辨率遥感影像的立体像对定位方法进行了理论和实验研究,并对实验结果进行了比较和分析。     

安徽省池州市2001～2010年可持续发展动态测度与分析

安徽池州市是国家首个生态经济示范区,近十年来,城镇化、工业化水平的快速提升加剧了其发展的风险性和不稳定性,可持续发展面临较大挑战。基于生态足迹模型,对池州市2001～2010年生态足迹供给与需求进行了时间序列测度与分析,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对2015年、2020年人均生态足迹进行了预测。结果表明:池州市人均生态足迹由2001年的1.2458hm²/人上升至2010年的2.2483hm²/人,年平均增长11.14%,人均生态赤字由0.8445hm²/人扩大至2010年的1.8266hm²/人;居民消费水平、能源消费量与人均生态足迹相关系数分别为0.844、0.945,为生态足迹驱动因素;研究时段内,能源生态足迹年均增长速度为83.75%,明显快于生物资源生态足迹增长速度;万元GDP生态足迹由2001年的2.98hm²/万元下降至2010年的1.20hm²/万元。预测2015年人均生态足迹为3.2336hm²/人,生态赤字将增至2.7926hm²/人;2020年人均生态足迹为4.4896hm²/人,生态赤字将扩大到4.0308hm²/人。针对池州生态不安全的现状,从减少能源消费、改变消费方式、提高农作物单产等方面提出了减少生态足迹的政策建议。     

基于广播星历和神经网络的GPS卫星坐标计算方法

通过在开普勒轨道模型中加入神经网络算法,得到一种全新的卫星坐标计算的混合模型:基于广播星历和神经网络混合模型,从而提高了利用广播星历计算卫星坐标的精度。计算结果表明:混合模型较传统的开普勒轨道模型在X、Y、Z3个方向上卫星坐标计算的精度提高了约10%。     

基于VB.NET的地形图编号查询与面积计算程序

主要介绍利用Microsoft Visual Basic.NET编写的地形图分幅编号查询与面积计算程序。通过该程序,根据经纬度坐标或高斯坐标,可查询该点所在各种基本比例尺下的图幅编号、西南图廓点的经纬度坐标以及在不同坐标系下的图幅面积。     

重现期风速风压计算系统介绍

介绍“重现期风速风压计算系统”采用4种概率分布模型（极值Ⅰ型分布、韦布尔分布、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布和对数正态分布）,计算工程抗风设计所需的重现期风速、风压等参数,同时给出剩余方差、柯尔莫哥洛夫拟合适度检验指标、拟合相对偏差等拟合优度指标,便于不同概率分布模型计算结果的对比分析。