南北带强震年度预测能力估计

对中国地震局原分析预报中心测震学科1988～1999年度划定的南北地震带强震(M≥7)危险区进行了回顾和分析。 结果表明, 从过程角度研究前兆地震活动图像及其演变是年度和中短期强震预测的有效途径, 这为南北地震带强震震情跟踪提供了条件。     

浅基础水平场地砂土液化危害性评价

分析了《建筑抗震设计规范》中砂土液化危害性评价方法的不足,通过确立液化土层在不同震害模式情况下的液化震陷计算值,建立了以震陷值S为指标的浅基础水平场地地基液化危害性评价等级,得到了其评价程序.     

临汾地震安全性评价的极值理论方法

本文根据极值理论建立了烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期公式，根据最大熵原理建立了未来Ｔ年烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的概率和烈度超越给定值Ｉｊ的平均重现期之间的关系式。利用１０２２─１９９３年的地震资料，计算了临汾（３６．１０°Ｎ，１１１．５０°Ｅ）周围４级以上地震在临汾造成的烈度，绘制了未来１００年临汾的烈度超越概率曲线（地震危险性曲线）。结果表明，计算场地烈度的极值理论方法可作为地震危险性分析的综合概率法的补充和验证。     

长短时记忆神经网络在中期地震预报中的探索——以川滇地区为例

利用机器学习方法对地震活动大数据进行挖掘,识别出一些过去认识不到的异常,提高地震预测的准确性,是一个非常具有挑战性的科学问题.本文基于川滇部分地区（24°N—32°N,98°E—106°E）地震目录,采用滑动的时空窗口,选取16个反映地震时空强度分布特征的地震预测因子,建立了长短时记忆（LSTM）神经网络,对研究区域9个子区块未来一年的最大地震震级进行预测.通过设置训练集：测试集=8：2和训练集：测试集=7：3两个不同的训练测试模型,对过往发生的地震进行了回溯性预报.结果表明：训练集：测试集=7：3模型能够利用1970年1月至2004年9月的地震目录进行学习,成功回溯性预报2008年汶川地震;训练集：测试集=8：2模型利用1970年1月至2009年5月资料进行训练,回溯性预报2010—2019年间6级以上地震的R评分为0.407,回溯性7级地震预报时准确率高达92.31%.本文还探讨性给出预测意见：2022年2月前研究区西部、中部、东部、西南部存在发生5.1~5.3级地震的潜在危险性.

     

Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do Acid-tolerant Cyanobacteria Exist?

Acidification of freshwater ecosystems changes phytoplankton biomass and reduces species composition. However, there are contradictory statements with respect to the occurrence of cyanobacteria below pH 4.5. Textbooks have not reported cyanobacteria in acid and very acid environments, whereas only a few papers on acidification of lakes through acid precipitation noted the occurrence of cyanobacteria in those environments. In a phytoplankton survey of 10 lakes in the Bavarian Forest as well as the lignite mining districts of Bavaria (Upper Palatine) and Lusatia, covering a pH gradient from 8.0 to 2.8, we demonstrate that acid-tolerant cyanobacteria do exist. Most strikingly, one of the most acid lakes (pH 2.9), Lichtenauer See (Lusatia), was inhabited by two populations of filamentous cyanobacteria, resembling Oscillatorial/Limnothrix and Spirulina spp. Eukaryotic phytoplankton was almost absent in this lake at the time. In contrast to filamentous cyanobacteria, picoplanktic ones were totally lacking where pH < 4.5. This indicates that members of coccal picoplanktic cyanobacteria and filamentous cyanobacteria have different acid tolerances. At present, it is not known how the acid-tolerant cyanobacteria described here maintain a strong transmembrane pH gradient.     

中国与美国西部平均构造剪应力值的比较

提出了一种估计一个地区平均构造剪应力值的方法．用这种方法,选取哈佛大学公布的1977～1999年共15 993次地震的矩张量数据,估计了美国西部19个地区、中国和邻区43个地区(每个地区为1010范围)的平均环境剪应力值．结果表明,美国西部南加州西部海域和南加州应力最高,达13.7和12.0 MPa,然后向北、向南和向东逐渐递减,但最小也达8.7 MPa,是最高值的63%．中国新疆西北部地区和西藏察隅地区应力水平最高,达17.2和12.9 MPa,比美国高．中国的华北、云南、四川、台湾和美国南加州的应力水平差不多．中国南北地震带的应力水平为13 MPa左右,比南加州略高．两个重要地区的平均剪应力值分布图,提供了地学的基本数据．这些结果可为研究地震活动的大背景提供依据,对研究强地面运动参数(如峰值加速度及反应谱等)的衰减关系也是有用的．     

冻融循环作用下含水率对粗颗粒填料水分迁移影响的宏细观试验研究北大核心CSCD

冻融循环作用和初始含水率是影响粗颗粒填料水分迁移特征和冻胀融沉变形的两个主要因素。为明确冻融循环作用下,不同初始含水率粗颗粒填料的水分迁移特征及细观机制,采用荧光素为追踪剂,以CT细观机理观测为研究手段,开展了不同初始含水率条件下粗颗粒填料的一系列冻融循环试验,探究了温度场和冻深变化、水分迁移图像、补水量变化、最终含水率分布及CT值变化规律等。试验结果表明,冻深基本随冻融循环的次数增加不断加深,初始含水率越大,不同冻融循环作用下冻深的变化越稳定。外界补水量和液态水迁移高度与初始含水率呈负相关。CT扫描结果分析表明,经历多次冻融循环后,试样中的水分迁移导致土体孔隙结构及颗粒构造发生变化,试样的密度普遍增加,孔隙率以减小为主,进而导致土体发生相应变形。     

Modeling dynamic assessment of ecosystem services based on remote sensing technology: A sampling of the Gansu grassland ecosystem

The ecosystem is important because it is the life sustaining system for human survival.Three ecosystem characteristics are:regional particularities,ecosystem complexity and conventional cultural particularities.This paper develops a remote sensing based dynamic model to assess grassland ecosystem service values involving multidisciplinary knowledge.The ecological value of grassland ecosystems is focused on using a remote sensing technique in the model,and setting up the framework for a dynamic assessing model.The grassland ecological services condition and value in 1985 is used as the benchmark.The dynamic model has two adjusting indicators:biomass and price index.The biomass is simulated using the CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model.The price index was obtained from statistics data published by the statistical bureau.Results show that the grassland ecosystem value in Gansu Province was 28.36 billion Chinese Yuan in 1985,140.37 billion in 1999 and 130.86 billion in 2002.