气候变化对全新世以来中国东部政治、经济和社会发展影响的初步研究

将社会科学(文史考古研究)与自然科学(气候变化)结合,分析了黄土高原社会经济发展较长江三角洲地区为早的原因,提出这可能是由于全新世大暖期的气候变化对不同地理区域产生不同的影响,最后并分析了中国历史上的3次移民潮的原因及其对长江三角洲社会经济发展的影响。     

Energy flux partitioning and evapotranspiration in a sub‐alpine spruce forest ecosystem

In this study, we examined the year 2011 characteristics of energy flux partitioning and evapotranspiration of a sub‐alpine spruce forest underlain by permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QPT). Energy balance closure on a half‐hourly basis was H + λE = 0.81 × (R_n ? G ? S) + 3.48 (W m^?2) (r² = 0.83, n = 14938), where H, λE, R_n, G and S are the sensible heat, latent heat, net radiation, soil heat and air‐column heat storage fluxes, respectively. Maximum H was higher than maximum λE, and H dominated the energy budget at midday during the whole year, even in summer time. However, the rainfall events significantly affected energy flux partitioning and evapotranspiration. The mean value of evaporative fraction (Λ = λE/(λE + H)) during the growth period on zero precipitation days and non‐zero precipitation days was 0.40 and 0.61, respectively. The mean daily evapotranspiration of this sub‐alpine forest during summer time was 2.56 mm day^?1. The annual evapotranspiration and sublimation was 417 ± 8 mm year^?1, which was very similar to the annual precipitation of 428 mm. Sublimation accounted for 7.1% (30 ± 2 mm year^?1) of annual evapotranspiration and sublimation, indicating that the sublimation is not negligible in the annual water balance in sub‐alpine forests on the QPT. The low values of the Priestley–Taylor coefficient (α) and the very low value of the decoupling coefficient (Ω) during most of the growing season suggested low soil water content and conservative water loss in this sub‐alpine forest. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原大尺度地表流体的重力效应特征分析

基于2002~2017年三维大气再分析模型、水文模式及GRACE卫星重力数据,采用负荷格林函数和卫星重力反演方法分析青藏高原大尺度地表流体的重力效应特征。结果表明,青藏高原地区大气扣除季节项前后的重力效应峰对峰变化介于1.9~10.7 μGal和1.1~4.6 μGal,其负荷效应呈现出显著的季节性特征;土壤水和积雪扣除季节项前后的重力效应峰对峰变化介于0.9~9.9 μGal和0.7~8.3 μGal,其负荷效应呈现出显著的季节性和年际变化特征;GRACE时变重力场扣除季节项前后的重力变化峰对峰变化介于4.4~24.1 μGal和3.4~18.3 μGal,考虑观测误差、构造运动和信号泄漏误差的影响,其显著的季节性和年际变化反映了多种地表流体的综合影响。     

低纬高原气候季节变化特征研究——以云南昆明大理为例

依据《气候季节划分》标准,选取我国低纬高原地区2个典型旅游城市——昆明和大理,进行了气候季节平均态,季节开始日期及长度变化,春分、夏至、秋分、冬至节气气温演变分析。（1） 昆明、大理是高原“无夏区”,一年仅有春、秋、冬三季,属“春秋型”城市,春、秋季为295 d和290 d,占全年的80.8%和79.5%。（2） 随着气候变暖,昆明、大理春、秋、冬三季比例发生了改变,春、秋季增加,冬季缩短,昆明变化幅度强于大理。（3） 昆明、大理春季始于2月9日和2月10日,春季长度为117 d和123 d;秋季始于6月7日和6月13日,秋季长度为178 d和167 d;冬季始于12月1日和11月27日,冬季长度为70 d和76 d;昆明、大理“春常在、秋长驻、冬短暂”特征显著。（4） 近60年来,昆明、大理春季开始日呈提早趋势,秋季开始日呈稍推迟趋势,冬季开始日呈推迟趋势;昆明、大理春季长度增加;昆明秋季长度略增加,大理秋季长度略减少;昆明、大理冬季长度减少。（5） 昆明、大理春分节令日气温阀值为14.8 ℃和14.2 ℃,夏至为20.3 ℃和20.5 ℃,秋分为17.4 ℃和17.5 ℃,冬至均为7.9 ℃;与我国东部季风区的北京和上海相比,昆明、大理在春分、夏至、秋分、冬至四个节令上具有“春暖、夏凉、秋爽、冬暖”特征;近60年来,四个节令日气温年际变化呈升高趋势,尤以春分、秋分增暖显著。     

“高分二号”卫星在黄土地质灾害解译中的应用研究

黄土高原地区地质灾害多发频发,危害严重,应用亚米级的高分二号(GF-2)卫星影像数据,提取地质灾害信息,并对室内解译结果进行了野外查证。本文提出了以GF-2卫星数据为主要信息源,进行地质灾害解译的技术方案;并以宁夏南部黄土高原区为例,验证了该方法的适用性,为规模化地开展基于国产高分系列卫星的黄土高原地区地质灾害遥感解译提供了可行的技术方案;通过GF-2卫星影像与常用的国内外卫星数据用于地质灾害信息判释的对比研究,认为GF-2卫星影像对于地质灾害信息的识别能够满足地质灾害遥感解译的要求,GF-2卫星影像的应用具有较高的性价比和显著的经济社会效益。     

Use a Spatial Analysis Model to Assess Habitat Quality in Lashihai Watershed

Habitat quality assessments are of great significance for protecting biodiversity. This study analyzes the changing habitat quality of Lashihai watershed based on SPOT satellite images. We extracted the land use data for Lashihai watershed in Yunnan province for the years 2000 and 2015, and then used an InVEST model to evaluate habitat degradation, habitat quality and habitat scarcity in the study area from 2000 to 2015. Spatial statistical methods were used to determine changes to spatial dynamics. Results indicate that the number of areas with habitat degradation was generally small, and that both the number of areas with habitat degradation and the degree of degradation had fallen noticeably during the fifteen-year study period. In general, the quality of habitats was maintained or improved, while the quality of habitats decreased in only a few areas. The scarcity of habitats for cultivated land had increased, the tension between people and land use was relatively prominent. The reason habitat quality in Lashihai watershed has improved can be attributed to three factors: 1) The policy of returning farmland to forests since 2000 has been well implemented and has achieved remarkable results. Loss of forests from logging and deforestation has basically been eliminated, and great progress has been made restoring the ecological environment. 2) High background value of quality habitat suitability benefits from the research area’s high vegetation coverage. 3) The development of the local tourism economy has transformed the area’s ecological advantages into an economic bonus, greatly increasing the income level and living standards of residents. At the same time, the ecological resource bonus has increased the enthusiasm of residents for ecological protection and has helped to promote the protection of local eco-systems, both reducing ecological degradation and improving habitat quality. At the same time, increasing conflicts between land and people should be addressed. Support is needed to promote development of the ecological economy while continuously reducing ecological degradation and further increasing residents’ income. There must be less reliance on industry and less pressure on both land and people, all the while ensuring that the local economy and ecology can more forward together in a sustainable way.     

An Abrupt Rainfall Decrease over the Asian Inland Plateau Region around 1999 and the Possible Underlying Mechanism

A decadal change in summer rainfall in the Asian inland plateau(AIP) region is identified around 1999. This decadal change is characterized by an abrupt decrease in summer rainfall of about 15.7% of the climatological average amount,leading to prolonged drought in the Asian inland plateau region. Both the surface air temperature and potential evapotranspiration in the AIP show a significant increase, while the soil moisture exhibits a decrease, after the late 1990s. Furthermore,the normalized difference vegetation index shows an apparent decreasing trend during 1999–2007. Three different drought indices—the standardized precipitation index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index—present pronounced climate anomalies during 1999–2007, indicating dramatic drought exacerbation in the region after the late 1990s. This decadal change in the summer rainfall may be attributable to a wave-like teleconnection pattern from Western Europe to Asia. A set of model sensitivity experiments suggests that the summer warming sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic could induce this teleconnection pattern over Eurasia, resulting in recent drought in the AIP region.     

利用COST-G GRACE时变模型反演黄土高原陆地水储量变化

综合利用COST-G GRACE时变重力场模型、降水、气温、GLDAS模型中地表水、实测浅层地下水和NDVI等多源数据,分析2002-04~2016-12黄土高原陆地水储量的时空变化特征,并利用偏最小二乘回归方法定性分析黄土高原陆地水储量变化的驱动因素。结果表明：1)研究时段内黄土高原陆地水储量具有上升-下降-平缓下降的变化特征,山西省陆地水储量亏损趋势明显;2) 2004~2009年采煤用水、人类生活用水和植被作用是黄土高原陆地水储量下降的重要因素,2010~2016年工业用水、人类生活用水和气温上升是黄土高原陆地水储量下降的重要因素。     

关于晚新生代准1.2Ma周期构造气候旋回

构造气候旋回的理论要点是构造作用驱动气候变化,因而不同于Milankovitch冰期气候旋回,但两者又都是受地球轨道要素控制的。本文主要根据青藏高原和黄土高原的晚新生代地质记录,以磁性地层为时间标尺,以黄道倾斜(ε)最大变幅位置为模式年龄,划分最近8Ma的准1.2Ma周期构造气候旋回的主旋回层,即MTC₇、MTC₆、MTC₅、MTC₄、MTC₃、MTC₂、MTC₁、MTC₀,它们的界线年龄分别为7.3、6.1、4.9、3.7、2.5、1.3和0.2MaBP。在此基础上,分析了青藏高原构造隆升和黄土高原风尘沉积各自显示的准1.2Ma周期的演变特征,表明它们之间具有构造驱动气候的因果关系。文中还探讨了最近7.3MaBP的古环境变迁,获得了有关晚新生代东亚季风形成演变和环境分异是在轨道气候旋回背景下受构造气候旋回控制的新认识。      

黄土高原末次间冰期气候的不稳定性特征

欧共体格陵兰冰芯计划(GRIP)中的冰芯资料揭示末次间冰期气候具有快速变化的不稳定性特征,而美国格陵兰冰盖计划(GISP2)却不曾发现其不稳定证据。本文通过黄土高原诸剖面的古气候代用指标综合分析认为,末次间冰期,特别是早期气候曾出现过较大幅度的气候波动,存在不稳定性特征,支持了GRIP结果,表明中国黄土含有极地北大西洋的气候信息,是全球变化研究的理想记录。