ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在基于SPI干旱预测中的应用——以青海省为例

开展干旱预测是有效应对干旱风险的前提基础。利用1958—2017年青海省38个气象站点逐日降水量数据计算多尺度标准化降水指数（SPI）,并建立了SPI序列自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）、长短时记忆神经网络模型（LSTM）和基于二者优点提出的ARIMA-LSTM组合模型;对模型参数进行率定和验证后,利用所建立的模型,以西宁站点为例,对多尺度SPI值进行预测,借助均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）和决定系数R²对所有预测模型的有效性进行判定。结果表明：ARIMA-LSTM组合模型在SPI1和SPI12的RMSE值分别为0.159 7和0.181 0,均低于ARIMA模型的1.265 4和0.293 3,说明ARIMA模型与ARIMA-LSTM组合模型对SPI的预测精度都与时间尺度有关,ARIMA模型的预测精度随着时间尺度的增加而逐渐提高;结合GIS并利用实测数据与模型的预测数据相比较说明ARIMA-LSTM组合模型相比于单一ARIMA模型的预测精度更高,且能够很好拟合不同时间尺度的SPI值。     

Analysis of Multiple Tourist Agents’ Symbiotic Relationship on the View of Tourist Enterprises Based on a Grey Correlation Model: A Case Study of Qinghai Lake,China

Tourism symbiosis is a social phenomenon consisting of many complex factors, and the reciprocal cooperation among multiple tourist agents at tourist destinations is the crux of the sustainable development of tourism. This study is from the perspective of tourist enterprises, and introduces the Symbiosis Theory of genecology. A quantitative evaluation is used to analyze both the equilibrium state of the combined symbiotic behavior routes and the behavior patterns of tourist enterprises with local governments, community residents, tourists and tourist enterprises around Qinghai Lake. The findings reveal: (1) the symbiotic behavior routes of the multiple tourist agents “E→G-R-T-E” in the Qinghai Lake area are constituted of intense symbiotic indications, while the maximum dimensionality of symbiotic interest of “E→G-R-T-E” is still in the state of disequilibrium and dissymmetry; (2) the symbiotic model of multiple tourist agents “E→G-R-T-E” in the Qinghai Lake area is an asymmetrically positive symbiotic model. It is proposed that, by establishing symbiotic mechanisms for guidance, decisions, supervisory control and profit distribution, the participation mechanism for multiple agents “E-G-R-T” can be further standardized. Moreover, tourist enterprises should be regarded as the primary agents to optimize the symbiotic model for “E→G-R-T-E” through the reinforcement of integrative supply and the construction of integrative effect, and finally promote the integrative symbiotic model of symmetrical reciprocity of the E-R-G-T model “driven by scenic areas, responsive to community residents, affected by local governments and enjoyed by tourists.”     

青海湖流域河川径流特征及其对降水的滞后效应

以青海湖流域的布哈河为例,采用变差系数、集中度和集中期等指标,对青海湖流域内径流量、降水量在年代、年际、季节等时间尺度上进行分析,并用集中期来反映河川径流对降水的滞后效应。结果显示,河川径流年内主要集中在6—10月,特别是7月中旬至8月中旬之间;降水主要集中在5—9月,特别是7月;径流量与降水量存在极大的相关性（r=0.746＞0.443=α0.001(47)）,径流对降水具有滞后效应,多年平均滞后时间为20 d左右。     

基于光释光测年研究青海湖三种沼泽湿地的发育及沉积速率

近百年来由于受气候暖干化、青海湖湖体水位下降和周围草地退化及沙化趋势加剧等生态环境变化,加速了湿地环境变迁的生态过程。本研究在青海湖北岸地区选取三种典型沼泽湿地(藏嵩草kobresia ti-betica、华扁穗草Blysmus sinocompressus、盐地凤毛菊Saussurea salsa),建立地层的年代序列,计算得到每一测年段内的沉积速率,结合前人研究的历史气候变化,分析湿地形成的历史背景,初步揭示三种沼泽湿地的发育和沉积规律与全球变化的耦合性。结果表明光释光测得的三种沼泽湿地其发育时期各不相同,华扁穗草沼泽湿地发育于8.436±0.6 ka,藏嵩草沼泽湿地发育于2.058±0.11 ka,盐地凤毛菊沼泽湿地发育于1.143±0.20 ka;从整个剖面的平均沉积速率来看盐地凤毛菊湿地沉积最快(0.63 mm/a),藏嵩草湿地次之(0.39 mm/a),华扁穗湿地最慢(0.09 mm/a)。三种沼泽湿地主要在气候由暖干向湿润期转变时形成,自形成以来由于受到全球变化和人类因素的影响,沉积并非随时间呈线性关系发展。     

Grassland degradation in the “Three-River Headwaters&rdquo|region, Qinghai Province

Supported by MSS images in the mid and late 1970s, TM images in the early 1990s and TM/ETM images in 2004, grassland degradation in the “Three-River Headwaters” region (TRH region) was interpreted through analysis on RS images in two time series, then the spatial and temporal characteristics of grassland degradation in the TRH region were ana-lyzed since the 1970s. The results showed that grassland degradation in the TRH region was a continuous change process which had large affected area and long time scale, and rapidly strengthen phenomenon did not exist in the 1990s as a whole. Grassland degradation pattern in the TRH region took shape initially in the mid and late 1970s. Since the 1970s, this deg-radation process has taken place continuously, obviously characterizing different rules in different regions. In humid and semi-humid meadow region, grassland firstly fragmentized, then vegetation coverage decreased continuously, and finally “black-soil-patch” degraded grassland was formed. But in semi-arid and arid steppe region, the vegetation coverage de-creased continuously, and finally desertification was formed. Because grassland degradation had obviously regional differences in the TRH region, it could be regionalized into 7 zones, and each zone had different characteristics in type, grade, scale and time process of grass-land degradation.     

青海高原冻土退化的若干事实揭示

利用地理信息系统技术和数理统计学方法,分析了青海高原冻土分布的时空演变规律,揭示了其退化的若干事实.研究表明:季节冻土和多年冻土在青海高原分布十分广泛;季节冻土具有显著的年内变化特征,冻土的融化过程通常较冻结过程复杂的多,且与地形因子和土壤特性等具有密切的关系.近几十年来,冻土表现为地温显著升高、冻结持续日数缩短、最大冻土深度减小和多年冻土面积萎缩、季节冻土面积增大以及冻土下界上升等总体退化的趋势.     

近50a以来青海省水资源变化趋势分析

选取三江源区主要代表站1956-2000年的年径流量与年降雨量资料,分析青海省三江源区水资源变化趋势.结果表明:青海省三江源区近45a来水资源变化趋势不明显.为了从更广的区域说明问题,对内陆河区青海湖、柴达木盆地的主要代表站1956-2000年的年径流量与年降雨量资料进行了分析,发现除了香日德河年径流量呈现比较明显的增加趋势之外,其它各站的年径流变化趋势均不明显,与三江源区具有相似的变化特征.     

青藏高原递进式隆升的力学模式

根据青藏高原现代构造变形的GPS速度场、高原区喜马拉雅山等五大山脉之间的几何关系,及其在地貌构造上的褶皱结构特点、岩石圈的分层特征,提出在印度板块的推挤作用下,青藏高原具有递进式隆升特征的观点。在此基础上,建立了地壳层递进式弯曲隆升的力学模型,并利用FLAC有限差分法数值模拟软件,近似采用平面应变条件,模拟了在水平推力作用下,地壳层递进式挤压弯曲隆升的过程。根据所建立的力学模型和数值模拟结果认为,青藏高原隆升的主要动力源是印度板块北北东方向的推挤力,地壳层依照自南而北的次序逐步产生一系列弯曲隆起,从平面、剖面上均具有密切的时序因果关系;高原隆升与活动构造的发育、分布具有密切关系,断裂活动强度自南向北递进式扩展。     

青海东昆仑哈西哇金多金属矿地质特征及找矿前景

研究区内广布的富金元古宇地层是金矿集中区形成的基础,多期次的强烈岩浆活动为金矿集中区的形成提供了极为丰富的成矿流体和矿质来源,脆韧性剪切带为矿液流通和汇聚提供了有利空间。在区内的脆韧性剪切带中分布有Ⅰ矿带和Ⅱ矿带,带内发育硅化、绢云母化、黄铁矿化、绿泥石化、碳酸盐化、纤闪石化、高岭土化蚀变,金多金属矿化主要与硅化、绢云母化、绿泥石化、黄铁矿化关系密切。目前已提交金资源量约8.94t,银金属量约247.02t,铅金属量约6.45万t,锌金属量约5.23万t。综合分析该区地质矿化特征和控矿因素认为,研究区成矿条件优越,找矿潜力巨大,通过开展进一步勘查工作有望达到大型金多金属矿床规模。     

青海湖裸鲤内脏发光细菌的分离和鉴定

2009-2013年,从青海湖裸鲤内脏器官中共分离获得6株发光细菌,编号依次为Q1、Q2、Q3、Q4、Q5、Q6.这6株发光细菌细胞壁革兰氏染色均为阴性,细胞为杆状,大小为(0.5~0.8)μm×(1.0~1.5)μm,具有单极生鞭毛,有运动性.氧化酶和接触酶均呈阳性反应,能发酵葡萄糖产酸;吲哚试验和V-P试验均为阳性反应,能分泌淀粉酶、明胶酶、DNA酶,能将硝酸盐还原为亚硝酸盐.最适生长温度为20~25℃,最适生长pH为8.5~9.0.16S rDNA基因序列分析结果表明,6株发光菌与其亲缘关系最近的属为Vibrio(弧菌属),该属内和此次实验的6株发光菌亲缘关系最近的种Vibrio anguillarum(鳗弧菌)的16S rDNA序列相似值为99.57%.Biolog GenⅢ鉴定结果显示,该实验的6株发光菌在有氧条件下,在提供的71种碳源中,只能利用其中的30种,其中,糖类12种,氨基酸类5种,羧酸类4种,聚合物类2种,其他类7种.结合6株发光菌的形态学特征、生理生化特性、Biolog Gen III鉴定结果和分子生物学特性,将菌株鉴定为Vibrio anguillarum.该菌所具有的发光特性为首次报道.