Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique.     

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型

斜坡岩体由小变形到大变形乃至滑坡的发生，实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果．将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中，并提出了一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型──协同预测模型．经实例检验，该模型预测精度较高，可用于滑坡的短期或临滑预报．     

镇江地区降雨导致滑坡规律统计分析

江苏镇江地区地属丘陵地带，近年来由于气候变化，调查资料显示镇江地区短时强降雨或持续时间较长的降雨经常 诱发大量浅层滑坡，降雨是区内滑坡主要影响因素，造成了较大的经济损失。文章通过对镇江地区300多个山体边坡进行 详细现场环境地质调查，结合收集气象资料，对该地区的滑坡与降雨相关参数的关系进行统计分析，得到了降雨量与降雨 持续时间对滑坡数量的变化关系。确定了镇江地区降雨阈值I-D 曲线，并将分析结果与其他地区进行了对比分析，研究成 果可为镇江地区滑坡治理和预警预报提供依据。     

金银寨铀矿的土溶滑坡及其防治初探

根据金银寨铀矿岩层裂隙发育，地表降水形成土溶滑坡的特征，采用水泥煤粉注浆加固，使边坡保持稳定。     

基于强度折减概念的滑坡稳定性三维分析方法(Ⅱ):加固安全系数计算

结合乌江洪家渡1#塌滑体加固设计工程,探讨了滑动面已知的条件下滑坡稳定性的三维分析方法。首先,模拟了塌滑体在天然状态下处于极限平衡状态时的滑动方向,并使用其应力成果计算了塌滑体的三维安全系数;其次,建议了基于强度折减概念的三维加固安全系数计算方法:最后,提出了加固设计的进一步优化方案。计算结果表明,塌滑体的滑动方向与局部地形等高线近于垂直。主滑方向变化较大,自后缘的NE15°方向逐步过渡到中部的NS向,最终过渡到前缘的NE30°方向,以致很难作出能表征主滑方向的地质剖面。基于应力计算成果的安全系数计算公式不能充分考虑滑坡体的抗滑潜能,也不能充分反映滑坡体的滑动方向,安全系数偏大。基于强度折减概念的三维加固安全系数计算方法具有有限元等方法的优点,较好地克服了上述局限性,可以合理地评价加固后的滑坡稳定性。     

碎屑流沿坡面运动的初步分析

本文分析了碎屑流沿坡面下滑过程中的运动特性,重点考察了床面摩擦系数、土体内摩擦角和坡角对碎屑流堆积形态的影响.     

A time-space based approach for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard

A rainfall-induced shallow landslide is a major hazard in mountainous terrain, but a time-space based approach is still an unsettled issue for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards. Rain induces a rise of the groundwater level and an increase in pore water pressure that results in slope failures. In this study, an integrated infinite slope analysis model has been developed to evaluate the influence of infiltration on surficial stability of slopes by the limit equilibrium method. Based on this new integrated infinite slope analysis model, a time-space based approach has been implemented to map the distributed landslide hazard in a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and to evaluate the shallow slope failure induced by a particular rainfall event that accounts for the rainfall intensity and duration. The case study results in a comprehensive time-space landslide hazard map that illustrates the change of the safety factor and the depth of the wetting front over time.     

The role of the seismic trigger in the Calitri landslide (Italy): historical reconstruction and dynamic analysis

The study covered by this paper was focused on the historical case of the Calitri landslide, which was repeatedly reactivated by earthquakes, as reported since 1694. The town of Calitri (Southern Italy) is located on a ridge whose southern slope, from its top to the Ofanto river valley floor, has been historically affected by major landsliding. The last record of recurrence of the Calitri landslide leads back to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, which caused significant damage to the town and had pervasive and visible ground effects. Based on a detailed historical reconstruction of landsliding and seismicity at Calitri, the study analysed the current static and dynamic stability of the landsliding slope by means of a finite-difference numerical analysis, taking into account the various factors of landslide initiation and kinematics. The results of the numerical analysis: (i) were consistent with the roto-translational mechanism observed upon the latest reactivation of the landslide; (ii) demonstrated that excess pore pressure redistribution caused a lag between the seismic trigger and the initiation of landsliding; and (iii) showed the impact of seismic input frequency on propagation and depth of slope instability.     

云南省祥(云)-临(沧)公路红土坡隧道变形原因及加固方案

云南省祥(云)-临(沧)公路红土坡隧道，在施工过程中变形严重，洞内数次冒顶、产生地面陷落，并诱发滑坡，严重影响了施工进度并造成较大经济损失。文章根据现场勘查及变形监控量测资料，详细论述了隧道变形特点，从地层岩性、构造、地应力条件、地下水作用、施工工艺、滑坡影响等方面综合分析了隧道变形原因。红土坡隧道变形是软弱的地层岩性、地应力条件改变、地下水作用、施工工艺以及滑坡偏压等各种因素共同作用的结果。且隧道变形诱发滑坡，滑坡又促使隧道进一步变形。基于此，文章提出了首先对滑坡进行支挡，再对隧道围岩进行加固的整治思路，并提出具体工程方案。整治工程实施后，红土坡隧道变形已得到完全控制，取得良好的治理效果。