The Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Bilis (2000) Associated with Cross-equatorial Surges

The purpose of this paper is to explore how a tropical cyclone forms from a pre-existing large-scale depression which has been observed and associated with cross-equatorial surges in the western North Pacific. Tropical cyclone Bilis(2000) was selected as the case to study.The research data used are from the results of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model(MM5),which has successfully simulated the transformation of a pre-existing weak large-scale tropical depression into a strong tropical storm.The scale separation technique is used to separate the synoptic-scale and sub-synoptic-scale fields from the model output fields. The scale-separated fields show that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression and the subsynoptic scale tropical cyclone formed later were different scale systems from beginning to end.It is also shown that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression did not contract to become the tropical cyclone. A series of weak,sub-synoptic-scale low and high pressure systems appeared and disappeared in the synopticscale depression,with one of the low systems near the center of the synoptic-scale depression having deepened to become the tropical cyclone. The roles of the synoptic-scale flow and the sub-synoptic scale disturbances in the formation of the tropical cyclone are investigated by diagnoses of the scale-separated vertical vorticity equation.The results show that the early development of the sub-synoptic scale vortex was fundamentally dependent on the strengthening synoptic-scale environmental depression.The depression was strengthened by cross-equatorial surges,which increased the convergence of the synoptic-scale depression at low levels and triggered the formation of the tropical cyclone.     

Turbulent shear stresses in hydraulic jumps,bores and decelerating surges

In an open channel, a sudden rise in water level induces a positive surge, or bore, that may develop as a hydraulic jump in translation. When the surge propagates against an adverse slope, it decelerates until it becomes a stationary hydraulic jump. Both hydraulic jumps and decelerating surges induce some intense turbulent mixing and have some major impact on the sediment transport in natural systems. Herein, a physical investigation was conducted in a relatively large rectangular channel. Hydraulic jumps and surges were generated by the rapid closure of a gate at the channel downstream end. The turbulent shear stresses were measured with high temporal and spatial resolution (200 Hz sampling rate) in the jump flow. A comparison between the stationary hydraulic jump, hydraulic jump in translation and decelerating surge measurements showed some marked differences in terms of turbulent mixing. The results highlighted some intense mixing beneath the jump front and roller for all configurations. The levels of turbulent stresses were one to two orders of magnitude larger than a critical threshold for sediment motion. The findings provide some insights into the hydraulic jump migration processes in mobile bed channels, and the complex transformation from a moving jump into a stationary jump. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sea level extremes in Marseille (NW Mediterranean) during 1885–2008

Sea level extremes and their temporal variability have been explored based on the hourly measurements at Marseille tide gauge for the period 1885–2008. A careful quality check has first been applied to the observations to ensure consistency of the record by eliminating outliers and datum shifts. Yearly percentiles have been used to investigate long-term trends of extremes revealing that secular variations in extremes are linked to mean sea level changes. The associated decadal changes show discrepancies between mean sea level trend and extreme fluctuations, due to the influence of the atmospheric forcing. A local regression model based on the generalized Pareto distribution has been applied to derive trends in return levels. The 50-years return levels reach values between 80 and 120 cm. The most significant changes in return levels are characterized by an increase since the 1970s.     

Assessing changes in extreme sea levels: Application to the English Channel, 1900–2006

A recently extended and spatially rich English Channel sea level dataset has been used to evaluate changes in extreme still water levels throughout the 20th century. Sea level records from 18 tide gauges have been rigorously checked for errors and split into mean sea level, tidal and non-tidal components. These components and the interaction between surge and tide have been analysed separately for significant trends before determining changes in extreme sea level. Mean sea level is rising at 0.8–2.3 mm/year, depending on location. There is a small increase (0.1–0.3 mm/year) in the annual mean high water of astronomical tidal origin, relative to mean sea level, and an increase (0.2–0.6 mm/year) in annual mean tidal range. There is considerable intra- and inter-decadal variability in surge intensity with the strongest intensity in the late 1950s. Storm surges show a statistically significant weak negative correlation to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index throughout the Channel and a stronger significant positive correlation at the boundary with the southern North Sea. Tide–surge interactions increase eastward along the English Channel, but no significant long-term changes in the distribution of tide–surge interaction are evident. In conclusion, extreme sea levels increased at all of the 18 sites, but at rates not statistically different from that observed in mean sea level.     

长白山天池火山碎屑流灾害区划

在回顾总结了国外火山碎屑流灾害分析模型研究历史的基础上,本文选取了Flow3D模型对我国东北地区长白山天池火山未来大喷发可能产生的火山碎屑流进行了灾害区域划分。以长白山天池火山现代地形为依据,设定了11条未来爆炸式火山喷发时产生的火山碎屑流的可能流动线路。模拟结果表明,在喷发柱高度为10km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为13.7km;在喷发柱高度为20km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为35.4km;在喷发柱高度为30km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为57.8km。在此基础上,得出了长白山天池火山未来发生中规模、大规模和超大规模火山喷发时火山碎屑流的覆盖范围,完成了我国第一幅长白山天池火山碎屑流灾害区划图。     

Sedimentary processes caused by felsic caldera-forming volcanism in the Late Miocene to Early Pliocene intra-arc Aizu basin, NE Japan arc

Six large Late Miocene to Quaternary calderas, > 10 km in diameter, cluster together with several medium to small calderas and stratovolcanoes in a 60 × 30 km area of the Aizu volcanic field, southern NE Japan arc. These caldera volcanoes were built on a WNW–ESE trending highland coincident with a local uplifted swell since Late Miocene. The flare-up of felsic volcanism occurred synchronously along the NE Japan arc. Pyroclastic flow sheets from the calderas spread over the surrounding intra-arc basins and are interstratified with various sediments. Geochronological data indicates that the large-caldera eruptions have occurred six times since 8 Ma, at intervals of 1 to 2 million years. Late Miocene to Early Pliocene extra-caldera successions in the basin consist of nine sedimentary facies associations: (1) primary pyroclastics, (2) lahars, (3) gravelly fluvial channels, (4) sandy fluvial channels, (5) floodplains, (6) tidal flats, (7) delta fronts, (8) pro-delta slopes, and (9) pro-delta turbidites. The distribution of facies associations show westward prograding of volcaniclastic aprons, made up of braid delta, braidplain, pyroclastic flow sheet, and incised braided river deposits. The extra-caldera successions record: 1) an increase in felsic volcanism with an associated high rate of volcaniclastic sediment supply at about 10 Ma, prior to catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions; and 2) progradation of volcaniclastic aprons toward the back-arc side in response to the succeeding caldera-forming eruptions and sea-level changes, until about 3 Ma.     

Coastal flooding: impacts of coupled wave–surge–tide models

Wind waves and elevated water levels together can cause flooding in low-lying coastal areas, where the water level may be a combination of mean sea level, tides and surges generated by storm events. In areas with a wide continental shelf a travelling external surge may combine with the locally generated surge and waves and there can be significant interaction between the propagation of the tide and surge. Wave height at the coast is controlled largely by water depth. So the effect of tides and surges on waves must also be considered, while waves contribute to the total water level by means of wave setup through radiation stress. These processes are well understood and accurately predicted by models, assuming good bathymetry and wind forcing is available. Other interactions between surges and waves include the processes of surface wind-stress and bottom friction as well as depth and current refraction of waves by surge water levels and currents, and some of the details of these processes are still not well understood. The recent coastal flooding in Myanmar (May 2008) in the Irrawaddy River Delta is an example of the severity of such events, with a surge of over 3 m exacerbated by heavy precipitation. Here, we review the existing capability for combined modelling of tides, surges and waves, their interactions and the development of coupled models.     

Pyroclastic deposits as a guide for reconstructing the multi-stage evolution of the Somma-Vesuvius Caldera

 The evolution of the Somma-Vesuvius caldera has been reconstructed based on geomorphic observations, detailed stratigraphic studies, and the distribution and facies variations of pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits produced by the past 20,000 years of volcanic activity. The present caldera is a multicyclic, nested structure related to the emptying of large, shallow reservoirs during Plinian eruptions. The caldera cuts a stratovolcano whose original summit was at 1600–1900 m elevation, approximately 500 m north of the present crater. Four caldera-forming events have been recognized, each occurring during major Plinian eruptions (18,300 BP "Pomici di Base", 8000 BP "Mercato Pumice", 3400 BP "Avellino Pumice" and AD 79 "Pompeii Pumice"). The timing of each caldera collapse is defined by peculiar "collapse-marking" deposits, characterized by large amounts of lithic clasts from the outer margins of the magma chamber and its apophysis as well as from the shallow volcanic and sedimentary units. In proximal sites the deposits consist of coarse breccias resulting from emplacement of either dense pyroclastic flows (Pomici di Base and Pompeii eruptions) or fall layers (Avellino eruption). During each caldera collapse, the destabilization of the shallow magmatic system induced decompression of hydrothermal–magmatic and hydrothermal fluids hosted in the wall rocks. This process, and the magma–ground water interaction triggered by the fracturing of the thick Mesozoic carbonate basement hosting the aquifer system, strongly enhanced the explosivity of the eruptions. Received: 24 November 1997 / Accepted: 23 March 1999     

Formation of high-grade ignimbrites Part II. A pyroclastic suspension current model with implications also for low-grade ignimbrites

 Analogue experiments in part I led to the conclusion that pyroclastic flows depositing very high-grade ignimbrite move as dilute suspension currents. In the thermo–fluid–dynamical model developed, the degree of cooling of expanded turbulent pyroclastic flows dynamically evolves in response to entrainment of air and mass loss to sedimentation. Initial conditions of the currents are derived from column-collapse modeling for magmas with an initial H₂O content of 1–3 wt.% erupting through circular vents and caldera ring-fissures. The flows spread either longitudinally or radially from source up to a runout distance that increases with higher mass flux but decreases with higher gas content, temperature, bottom slope and coarser initial grain size. Progressive dilution by entrainment and sedimentation causes pyroclastic currents to transform into buoyant ash plumes at the runout distance. The ash plumes reach stratospheric heights and distribute 30–80% of the erupted material as widespread co-ignimbrite ash. Pyroclastic suspension currents with initial mass fluxes of 10⁷-10¹² kg/s can spread for tens of kilometers with only limited cooling, although they move as supercritical, strongly entraining currents for the eruption conditions considered here. With increasing eruption mass flux, cooling during passage through the fountain diminishes while cooling during flow transport increases. The net effect is that eruption temperature exerts the prime control on emplacement temperature. Pyroclastic suspension currents can form welded ignimbrite across their entire extent if eruption temperature is T_o>1.3^.T_mw, the minimum welding temperature. High eruption rates, a large fraction of fine ash, and a ring-fissure vent favor the formation of extensive high-grade ignimbrite. For very hot eruptions producing sticky, partially molten pyroclasts, analysis of particle aggregation systematics shows that factors favoring longer runout also favor more efficient aggregation, which reduces runout. As a result, very high-grade ignimbrites cannot spread more than a few tens of kilometers from their source. In cooler pyroclastic currents, particles do not aggregate, and the sedimentation process may involve re-entrainment of particles, which potentially leads to more extensive cooling and longer runout; such effects, however, are only significant when net erosion of substrate occurs. Model results can be employed to estimate mass flux and duration of ignimbrite eruptions from measured ignimbrite masses and aspect ratios. The model also provides an alternative explanation of the observed decrease in H/Lratios with ignimbrite mass. Received: 10 May 1998 / Accepted: 21 October 1998     

Small fast-moving flow-like landslides in volcanic deposits: The 2001 Las Colinas Landslide (El Salvador)

Fast-moving landslides are one of the most significant dangers deriving from slope instabilities. Landslides involving large volumes can develop in rock or debris avalanches with extreme mobility and enormous destructiveness. Nevertheless, a relevant number of casualties and damages derive from small, fast-moving landslides with flow-like behaviour.

The Las Colinas landslide occurred at Santa Tecla (El Salvador, Central America) during a strong earthquake. It slid off the northern flank of the Bálsamo ridge, and resulted in almost 500 casualties and can be considered one of the most destructive landslides ever known. Earthquake shaking was amplified by the rock mass and the steep ridge topography.

We collected original geological, geomorphological and geophysical data in the Cordillera del Bálsamo area. The involved materials, ranging from lapilli to tuff layers of different strength, have been mapped and characterized.

Slope stability analyses have been performed both under static and dynamic conditions through limit equilibrium and finite element methods.

Hazard zonation for this type of landslides requires the forecast of the movement velocity and final deposition area. We used a fully two-dimensional FEM model to simulate landslide spreading downslope. The developed code allows the use of different constitutive models and yield rules with the possibility to model and study internal deformation of the landslide mass, as well material entrainment and deposition.