Trace metals, PAHs, and PCBs in sediments from the Jobos Bay area in Puerto Rico

This study provides baseline information on the extent of contamination in sediments of the Jobos Bay estuary and surrounding areas in Puerto Rico. Sediments from Jobos Bay area (n = 14) had higher overall average concentrations than those from La Parguera area (n = 5, used as reference site), in μg/g dw, for As (17 vs 9), Cu (29 vs 14), Pb (11 vs 4), and Zn (64 vs 28); and in %, for Fe (2.6 vs 0.6). Sediments (n = 8) screened for PAHs and PCBs exhibited total concentrations (ng/g dw) that ranged from 40.4 to 1912, and from not detected to 11.21, respectively. The quality of sediments of Jobos Bay could be classified as low to moderate pollution. The proximity to anthropogenic sources of contamination warrants a monitoring program for inorganic and organic pollutants in Jobos Bay area for an effective coastal management program of this tropical ecosystem.     

When Fields Revert to Forest: Development and Spontaneous Reforestation in Post‐War Puerto Rico

During the past 50 years forests have recolonized extensive areas of Puerto Rico. Between 1950 and 1990 forest cover increased from 9% to 37% of the island's land area. In proportional terms more land has reverted to forest in Puerto Rico than anywhere else on earth during the second half of the twentieth century. This paper explores the geography of this process by matching changes in land cover with the characteristics of the land and communities in Puerto Rico. The reversion of agricultural lands to forest occurred most frequently in humid, upland, coffee‐growing regions characterized by heavy out‐migration and populations of smallholders who earned some of their income from off‐farm sources. These findings suggest that changes in non‐farm labor markets, as well as changes in the political economy of agriculture, have important impacts on the prospects for converting agricultural lands into forests.     

Genetic seascape of the threatened Caribbean elkhorn coral,Acropora palmata,on the Puerto Rico Shelf

It has been proposed that the elkhorn coral Acropora palmata is genetically separated into two distinct provinces in the Caribbean, an eastern and a western population admixing in Western Puerto Rico and around the Mona Passage. In this study, the genetic structure of A. palmata sampled at 11 Puerto Rican localities and localities from Curaçao, the Bahamas and Guadeloupe were examined. Analyses using five microsatellite markers showed that 75% of sampled colonies had unique genotypes, the rest being clone mates. Genetic diversity among genets was high (H_E = 0.761) and consistent across localities (0.685–0.844). F_ST ranged from ?0.011 to 0.047, supporting low but significant genetic differentiation between localities within the previously reported eastern and western genetic provinces. Plots of genetic per geographic distances and significant Mantel tests supported isolation‐by‐distance (IBD) within Puerto Rico. Analysis with the software STRUCTURE favored a scenario with weak differentiation between two populations, assigning Eastern Puerto Rican locations (Fajardo and Culebra), Guadeloupe and Curaçao to the Caribbean eastern population and Western Puerto Rican locations (west of Vega Baja and Ponce), Mona and the Bahamas to the Caribbean western population. Vieques and San Juan area harbored admixed profiles. Standardized F_ST per 1000 km unit further supported higher differentiation between localities belonging to different STRUCTURE populations, with IBD being stronger within Puerto Rico than on larger regional scales. This stronger genetic transition seems to separate localities between putative eastern and western provinces in the Eastern Puerto Rican region, but not around the Mona Passage.     

PETROCHEMICALS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE PUERTO RICAN EXPERIENCE*

The oil refining and petrochemical industries have occupied an important role in Puerto Rico's development strategy since the early 1960s. However, the hopes epitomized in various planning models of highly integrated and diversified oil-based industrial complexes have not been fulfilled. This paper attempts to account for the discrepancy between official expectations and subsequent events in Puerto Rico and indicates some of the lessons for other developing countries.     

Organic fades in Recent sediments of carbonate platforms: Southwestern Puerto Rico and Northern Belize

Our organic facies model of a platform environment is based on the analysis of (1) total organic carbon, (2) visual protokerogen types and hydrogen indices of the sediments, (3) sediment mineralogy and grain size, and (4) reef patterns, water circulation, and relief of the adjacent land.TOC values are lowest on reefs and outer platforms (0.2%); intermediate in sediments fringing carbonate islands (0.5–2.0%), on sea-grass meadows (0.5–0.7%), and in forereef lagoons (0.1–0.7%); highest in inner platform lagoons (0.5–5.0%) and mangrove swamps (2.7–3.5%). Paniculate organic matter comprises structured terrestrial, marine, and amorphous types. On average, terrestrial material accounts for 28% of OM in Puerto Rico and 12% in Belize. The mean hydrogen index of the sediment is 355 (mg hydrocarbons/g TOC) in Puerto Rico and 719 in Belize.This study indicates that TOC values are mainly related to platform subenvironment, while OM types are controlled by distance from the shoreline. Organic facies dominated by structural terrestrial OM occur closer to the shore, whereas toward the shelf margin marine and amorphous OM contents increase.     

Identifying population vulnerable to hydrological hazards in San Juan, Puerto Rico

The hazards of place framework developed by Cutter (1996) has been applied to several areas across the United States. This article tests the applicability of that model for analysis of hydrological disasters in the municipio of San Juan, Puerto Rico. San Juan is chosen because it combines many socioeconomic attributes of a developing area while offering data availability befitting its status as a US commonwealth. The interoperability of principal components and arithmetically based methods for producing a social vulnerability layer are examined. For both methods, a basket of commonly cited demographic variables representing social and economic vulnerability is extracted from Census 2000 sample (SF-3) data at the census block-group level of analysis. These results provide insight on the strengths and weaknesses of the methods both methodologically and regarding policy implementation. A look at the neighborhood of La Perla suggests complex local positive and negative effects of local processes on vulnerability not captured by demographic analysis. These effects relate to possible census undercounts in peripheral areas and uncaptured coping ability provided by social networks.     

On the use of NOAA's storm surge model,SLOSH, in managing coastal hazards — the experience in Puerto Rico

A numerical-dynamic, tropical storm surge model, SLOSH (Sea, Land, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), was originally developed for real-time forecasting of hurricane storm surges on continental shelves, across inland water bodies and along coastlines and for inland routing of water -either from the sea or from inland water bodies. The model is two-dimensional, covering water bodies and inundated terrain. In the present version available at the University of Puerto Rico a curvilinear, polar coordinate grid scheme is used. The grid cells are approximately 3.2 × 3.2 km in size.The model has been used in a revision of all coastal Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and in hurricane evacuation studies. The FIRM's, since they are based on the 100 year stillwater elevation, are also used by the state Planning Board for regulatory purposes. The hurricane evacuation studies are used by emergency planners and personnel to assign shelters, escape routes, and delimit coastal zones that need to be evacuated during a hurricane threat.Recently, the acquisition of data from hurricane Hugo has allowed the first comparison of model results and observations for Puerto Rico and the other islands.     

A record of recent change in terrestrial sedimentation in a coral-reef environment, La Parguera, Puerto Rico: a response to coastal development?

Increased sediment flux to the coastal ocean due to coastal development is considered a major threat to the viability of coral reefs. A change in the nature of sediment supply and storage has been identified in a variety of coastal settings, particularly in response to European colonization, but sedimentation around reefs has received less attention. This research examines the sedimentary record adjacent to a coastal village that has experienced considerable land-use change over the last few decades. Sediment cores were analyzed to characterize composition and sediment accumulation rates. Sedimentation rates decreased seaward across the shelf from 0.85 cm y(-1) in a nearshore bay to 0.19 cm y(-1) in a fore-reef setting. Data reflected a significant (up to 2x) increase over the last approximately 80 years in terrestrial sediment accumulating in the back-reef setting, suggesting greater terrestrial sediment flux to the area. Reef health has declined, and increased turbidity is believed to be an important impact, particularly when combined with additional stressors.     

Evaluating weather observations and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as inputs for hydrologic modelling in the tropics

Correctly representing weather is critical to hydrological modelling, but scarce or poor quality observations can often compromise model accuracy. Reanalysis datasets may help to address this basic challenge. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset provides continuous, globally available records, and CFSR data have produced satisfactory hydrological model performance in some temperate and monsoonal locations. However, the use of CFSR for hydrological modelling in tropical and semi‐tropical basins has not been adequately evaluated. Taking advantage of exceptionally high rainfall station density in the catchments of the Rio Grande de Loiza above San Juan, Puerto Rico, we compared model performance based on CFSR records with that based on publicly available weather stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN, n = 21) and on a dataset of rainfall records maintained by the United States Geological Survey Caribbean Water Science Center (USGS, n = 24). For an implementation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with subbasins defined at 11 streamflow gages, uncalibrated measures of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were >0 at 8 of 11 gages using USGS precipitation data for daily simulations over the period 1998–2012, but were <0 using GHCN weather station records (8 of 11) and CFSR reanalysis data (9 of 11). Autocalibration of individual SWAT models for each of the 11 basins against each of the available weather datasets yielded NSE values > 0 using all precipitation inputs, including CFSR. However, the ground weather station closest to the geographic basin centre produced the highest NSE values in only 5 of 11 cases. The spatially interpolated CFSR data performed as well or better than single ground observations made further than 20–30 km, and sometimes better than individual weather stations <10 km from the basin centroid. In addition to demonstrating the need to evaluate available weather inputs, this research reinforces the value of CFSR data as a means to supplement ground records and consistently determine a baseline for hydrologic model performance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.