华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征

利用1960-2005年华南地区71个测站的逐日降水量资料和NCEP/NCAR南半球月平均海平面气压场再分析资料,采用Le Page榆验、广义极值分布等统计诊断方法,研究了华南地区近46 a前汛期(4-6月)和后汛期(7-9月)极端降水的时空变化及概率分布特征.并讨论了南半球澳大利亚高压和马斯克林高压强度指数与华南汛期暴雨日数间年代际变化的关系.结果表明:(1)1992年华南地区降水发生了由减少趋势到增多趋势的突变,降水趋势发生突变后前汛期极端降水量和日极端降水强度有所下降,而后汛期则是显著增强.(2)华南汛期年平均日最大降水量、50 a一遇日最大降水量极值和暴雨日数的空间分布特征相似,即前汛期的空间分布自南向北呈现"低-高-低"的分布趋势,后汛期呈现由沿海到内陆的"高-低"的分布趋势.(3)1992年发生突变后,前、后汛期年平均日最大降水量和年平均暴雨日数显著增加和减少的空间分布基本一致.(4)就年代际变化而言,南半球澳大利亚高压和马斯克林高压的强度变化是华南汛期降水异常的重要气候背景,即当两高压处在同时增强时期时,华南前汛期极端降水处于偏少阶段,后汛期则处于偏多阶段.     

降水气候强迫下非均匀地表区域平均径流的一种参数化方案

将任一中尺度区域的平均瞬间径流率考虑为区域平均降水量和地表土壤层水分渗透垦的余项.根据降水量在地理空间上分布的实测资料拟合其空间概率密度函数(PDF),并结合土壤入渗物理过程的数学描述及其经验公式,精确估计出地表土壤渗透率及其空间分布,由此建立区域地表径流率的统计-动力学估计方案.换言之,区域内地表产流率可视为区域平均降水量与区域平均的土壤下渗量之差值,而区域内土壤的平均下渗量又町分为非饱和区和饱和区两部分的下渗量来分别计算.就陆面水分循环的物理过程而言,地表入渗现象是在一定的下垫面特性基础上,由一定的水分供应源而形成的.根据大气降水向地表层输送水分的物理过程,在满足植被表层覆盖需水(截流水)和地表层土壤人渗水基础上,多余的降水量才会形成地表径流.凶此,推求地表产流率的主要关键在于地表土壤层需水量.为此奉文根据土壤水分通量方程推导出水分入渗公式.又从描述土壤水分和降水的空间PDF出发,推导出非均匀土壤含水量及降水气候强迫所形成的次网格尺度区域平均径流率计算公式.利用长江三角洲地区1996年降水量和土壤特性等实测资料建立区域平均地表径流率的估计公式,并对其影响凶素进行敏感性试验.结果表明,该方法与用Mosaic方法计算的区域径流率(或产流率)结果十分接近.由此可见,该文提出的降水气候强迫下非均匀地表区域平均径流的这种统计-动力参数化方案,具有相当的可靠性与可行性.     

Assessing probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction at a given site in a given exposure time using CPTU

This paper is a follow-up to a previous paper on the subject of liquefaction potential index (LPI), a parameter that is often used to characterize the potential for surface manifestation of liquefaction at a given site subjected to a given shaking level (represented by a pair of peak ground surface acceleration a_max and moment magnitude M_w). In the previous paper by Juang and his coworkers, the LPI was re-calibrated for a piezocone penetration test (CPTU) model, and a simplified model based on LPI was created for computing the conditional probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction (P_G). In this paper, the model for this conditional probability P_G is extended into a complete framework for assessing the probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction in a given exposure time at a given site subjected to all possible ground motions at all seismic hazard levels. This new framework is formulated and demonstrated with an example site in 10 different seismic regions in the United States.     

Neural network-based model for assessing failure potential of highway slopes in the Alishan, Taiwan Area: Pre- and post-earthquake investigation

This paper is aimed at creating an empirical model for assessing failure potential of highway slopes, with a special attention to the failure characteristics of the highway slopes in the Alishan, Taiwan area prior to, and post, the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The basis of the study is a large database of 955 slope records from four highways in the Alishan area. Artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized to “learn” from this database. The developed ANN model is then used to study the effect of the Chi-Chi earthquake on the slope failure characteristics in the Alishan area. Significant changes in the degrees of influence of several factors (variables) are found and possible reasons for such changes are discussed. The novelty of this paper lies in the fact that the developed ANN models are used as a tool to investigate the slope failure characteristics before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

The statistics of particle velocities and accelerations under waves with directional spread

The statistics of the horizontal component of the water particle velocity vector under random waves are considered. A spread in the directions of travel of the component wave trains does not affect the rms value of the modulus r but it affects the shape of its probability distribution in such a way that the pr3bability of extreme values is reduced. For small and moderate directional spreads the modulus for a given probability of exceedance is reduced by a factor which tends to F_s as the probability of exceedance tends to zero, where F_s is the spread factor (which is typically 0.9 in temperate storms). However, the convergence on this asymptote is not complete for probabilities of engineering importance, particularly for wide directional spreads. The standard deviation of the probability distribution of the direction of the vector is reduced roughly in inverse proportion to r. The same conclusions apply to particle accelerations.     

Significant load and green water on deck of offshore units/vessels

In this paper the probability of green water occurrence is investigated by taking into account the threshold of the vertical relative motion exceeding the freeboard. The number of wetting of the unit/vessel is predicted using probabilistic method. This paper compares the significant load, due to shipping of green water with the works of other researchers, and the loads are found to be close with the results presented in this paper. There is no direct relation between the velocities in the waves and the water velocity over the deck. The water velocities around the bow are heavily distributed by the presence of the bow. This scenario makes the flow very complex for schematic modelling.     

条件区域云概率分布模型

本文在引入区域相关场和正态化转换技术的基础之上,通过MonteCarlo模拟建立了条件区域概率分布模型,较好地解决了单点概率和区域分布概率之间的关系,并通过大量计算,得到了条件区域概率分布模型的拟合函数,从而使区域范围内的概率天气预报成为可能。特别是为战时气象信息封锁条件下,进行区域范围内的概率天气预报提供了新的思路。     

TRP与Logit概率预报模式计算比较分析

本文分别利用TRP模式及Logit模式与MOS相结合的方法,对南京市的能见度及云量进行了24小时概率预报试验。通过对两种模式的比较分析,结果表明：Logit模式的拟合率比TRP模式的高,而在实际预报中,TRP模式的预报准确率高。同时,TRP模式的计算更为方便灵活。     

大连地区地震活动性分析及地震概率背景估计

根据统计计算大连地区１９９１年１１月至 １９９９年１月发生的２９９个ＭL≥２．０地震,得出目前该地区的地震活动规律,并对这期间的地震变化趋势进行了理论分析和概率背景估计,认为其间所发生的地震属于１９９３年３月１８日的大连满家滩南海ＭＬ４．３地震序列,从理论值和实测值的结果判断,该地震序列发生 ＭＬ≥５．０的可能性不大, 但不能排除该地震序列仍然存在着发生４．０≤ＭＬ＜５．０地震的概率背景．目前的地震平静期属于该地震序列活动期的尾声和下一地震活动期能量积累的初级阶段．     

Distribution of eddy scales for wave current combined flow

This paper illustrates the modulation of the eddy scale distribution due to superimposition of surface wave on only current flow. Time series data of three-dimensional velocity components were measured in a laboratory flume by a three-dimensional (3D) 16-MHz micro-acoustic Doppler velocimeter (Micro-ADV). The velocity time series of only current case and waves following the current were analysed to obtain the phase-averaged mean velocities, turbulent intensities, and Reynolds stress. The probability density function of phase-averaged stream-wise and vertical velocity fluctuations showed bimodal oscillations towards the free surface for higher frequency surface waves. It was revealed that surface waves along the current effectively decrease the intermittency of turbulence of the only current flow. Surface wave changed the intermittent structure of only current flow by modulation of the energy cascade mechanism of the only current flow by introduction of wave induced length scales. Also the scale of the finer dissipative eddies were prominently enhanced by the increase in surface wave frequency. Wavelet analysis of time series of velocity signals provided information on the eddy scale and their frequency of occurrence. It was found that the large eddies are carried by the crest regions of the progressive wave while the small scale eddies are carried by the trough regions.