GPS-RTK用于矿山高精度沉陷监测的可行性研究

针对复杂地表条件下采用水准测量和导线测量等常规方式进行地表变形周期观测、任务量大甚至无法实施等问题,提出了建立研究区域的似大地水准面精化模型,同时采用GPS-RTK技术获取观测站三维空间信息,进而获得概率积分法预计参数。最后以内蒙古准格尔旗某煤矿的生产实践说明该技术的有效性和可行性,极大地提高了工作效率,为保护煤柱的留设提供了科学的依据。     

TRP与Logit概率预报模式计算比较分析

本文分别利用TRP模式及Logit模式与MOS相结合的方法,对南京市的能见度及云量进行了24小时概率预报试验。通过对两种模式的比较分析,结果表明：Logit模式的拟合率比TRP模式的高,而在实际预报中,TRP模式的预报准确率高。同时,TRP模式的计算更为方便灵活。     

Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.     

Analysis of the Chiufengershan landslide triggered by the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

A disastrous earthquake rocked Taiwan on September 21, 1999, with magnitude M_L=7.3 and an epicenter near the small town of Chi-Chi in central Taiwan. The Chi-Chi earthquake triggered landslide on the dip slope at the Chiufengershan. In this study, a review of the topography and geology of this area was followed by field investigations. Laboratory testing was applied to understand the geomaterial composing the slope. Then, based on a series of limit equilibrium analyses, the failure mechanism of this landslide and the risk of the residual slope were studied.

According to the stability analyses, the pre-quake slope is quite stable, with factor of safety of 1.77 (dry) to 1.35 (full groundwater level); explaining why there is no written record of a landslide here for the past 100 years. In contrast, a back analysis shows that the Chi-Chi earthquake-induced dynamic loading is far more than the dip slope can sustain, due in part to the short distance to the epicenter. A Monte Carlo type probability analysis suggests that the residual slope is more dangerous than the pre-quake slope and needs more attention.     

Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview

Landslides can result in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions. In order to mitigate landslide hazard effectively, new methodologies are required to develop a better understanding of landslide hazard and to make rational decisions on the allocation of funds for management of landslide risk. Recent advances in risk analysis and risk assessment are beginning to provide systematic and rigorous processes to enhance slope management. In recent years, risk analysis and assessment has become an important tool in addressing uncertainty inherent in landslide hazards.This article reviews recent advances in landslide risk assessment and management, and discusses the applicability of a variety of approaches to assessing landslide risk. Firstly, a framework for landslide risk assessment and management by which landslide risk can be reduced is proposed. This is followed by a critical review of the current state of research on assessing the probability of landsliding, runout behavior, and vulnerability. Effective management strategies for reducing economic and social losses due to landslides are described. Problems in landslide risk assessment and management are also examined.     

从经验性预报向以物理为基础的概率预报过渡的若干问题

前言 地震预报是一个既古老又年轻的课题。早在二千七百多年前我国就开始有地震记载。公元132年,东汉张衡发明了世界上最早的地震仪——候风地动仪。但是,世界性的比较科学的地震预报研究大体上从本世纪六十年代开始。日本从1965年开始执行第一个地震预报五年计划。苏联虽自1948年阿什哈巴德地震之后就提出地震预报,但是,在地震学、地球物理和地球化学等方面探索前兆,真正取得进展也始于六十年代末。我国有计划大规模开展地震预报从1966年邢台地震现场开始。美国地震预报起步稍晚,但进展很快。 二十多年的观测、研究和预报实践推动了地震预报事业的发展。地震预报已从束手无策的     

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.     

联合多点地质统计学与序贯高斯模拟的随机反演方法

岩相和储层物性参数是油藏表征的重要参数,地震反演是储层表征和油气藏勘探开发的重要手段.随机地震反演通常基于地质统计学理论,能够对不同类型的信息源进行综合,建立具有较高分辨率的储层模型,因而得到广泛关注.其中,概率扰动方法是一种高效的迭代随机反演策略,它能综合考虑多种约束信息,且只需要较少的迭代次数即可获得反演结果.在概率扰动的优化反演策略中,本文有效的联合多点地质统计学与序贯高斯模拟,并结合统计岩石物理理论实现随机反演.首先,通过多点地质统计学随机模拟,获得一系列等可能的岩相模型,扰动更新初始岩相模型后利用相控序贯高斯模拟建立多个储层物性参数模型;然后通过统计岩石物理理论,计算相应的弹性参数;最后,正演得到合成地震记录并与实际地震数据对比,通过概率扰动方法进行迭代,直到获得满足给定误差要求的反演结果.利用多点地质统计学,能够更好地表征储层空间特征.相控序贯高斯模拟的应用,能够有效反映不同岩相中储层物性参数的分布.提出的方法可在较少的迭代次数内同时获得具有较高分辨率的岩相和物性参数反演结果,模型测试和实际数据应用验证了方法的可行性和有效性.

     

Dry spells assessment with reference to the maize crop in the Luvuvhu River catchment of South Africa

Agricultural productivity in South Africa is negatively affected by drought as a result of frequent periodic dry spells and increasing crop water demands resulting in poor crop development and low yields. Thus, we embarked on this study which aims at investigating dry spell occurrences in relation to growing season of maize in the Luvuvhu River Catchment. Daily rainfall data (1945–2014) from 12 stations which represent the catchment fairly well was utilized in this study. Three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on three consecutive onsets of the rainy season. Dry spells were categorized into three groups: short, medium and long dry spells. The data was then subjected to theoretical distribution fitting using the Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit test; and probabilities of occurrence were computed using a probabilistic model that best fits the data. Trend analysis was performed on the frequency of dry spells per growing period using the non-parametric Spearman's rank correlation test. Out results indicated high probabilities (≥80%) of short dry spells at all the stations irrespective of the timing of planting. Further analysis revealed that a risk of yield reduction with planting following the first onset of rains was higher than that with planting following the second and third onsets. In order to minimize this risk, farmers can be advised to plant between mid-November to mid-December. Trend analysis indicated no trend for all the various dry spell lengths except for Thohoyandou with a decreasing trend and Sigonde with a weak increasing trend in long dry spells. Such findings can be used to describe drought conditions for improvement of agricultural productivity and food security, in a given area.     

THE FLUCTUATING CHARACTERISTICS OF HYDRODYNAMIC FORCES ON BED PARTICLE

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