对流边界层中的一个双高斯型PDF扩散模式

对流边界层（ＣＢＬ）中的污染扩散是非高斯型的。本文在下列三个假设下建立了双高斯型几率分布函数（ＰＤＦ）模式：１．对流边界层任一确定高度铅直速度Ｗ的几率分布函数ｐｗ由两个高斯分布迭加而成；２．从污染源释放的粒子具有源高的铅直速度几率分布，且其轨迹是线性的；３．粒子在地面的反射为全反射，在混合层高度Ｚｉ为全反射或有部分吸收。然后分析了三个高度上铅直速度Ｗ的一些统计特征量，比较了由ＰＤＦ模式计算的横风向积分浓度和Ｌａｍｂ的数值模拟［１－３］，Ｄｅａｒｄｏｒｆｆ的水槽模拟［４－６］结果，并用美国ＣＯＮＤＯＲＳ计划的外场试验资料［７］对ＰＤＦ模式进行了验证，结果均相当一致。     

Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.     

中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断

根据中国西北近500a旱涝等级资料，用Bernoulli试验等理论模式，对大旱年发生的概率特征进行了研究，得出大旱年发生的统计规律。在全球气候变暖的大背景下，给出了21世纪中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断结果。     

非洲、澳洲、南美洲的连环拼合与成因探讨

通过对非洲、澳大利亚、南美洲彼此之间的大陆架边界线相似的概率分析，指出巧合是不可能的，地球在过去几十亿年间一定发生了大规模的膨胀。     

震源耦合的等效物理模型

本文提出了考虑各潜在震源相互耦合的等效物理模型，系统地建立了通过拟合各潜在震源地震序列来确定不同时间段内活断层形速率的方法，给出了预报各潜在震源未来一定年限内发生震级在不同震级段的概率模型。     

中国大陆强地震时间间隔的概率

以东经１０８°线为界，把中国大陆分为东、西两部，东部取震级Ｍ≥６的地震、西部取Ｍ≥７的地震为强地震．利用有史以来全部地震资料，针对不同情况和不同时期，系统地研究了相继两次强地震之间的时间间隔，目的在于讨论一次强地震发生之后，下一次强地震何时发生．在所有情况下地震间隔数目都随时间间隔值的增大呈明显的趋势性减小．给出了８种情况下的间隔数目统计和相应的模拟函数，以及间隔值的经验概率和相应的函数模拟概率．由此可估计时间间隔为某个值的概率，也可估计时间间隔处于某个区间的概率．反之，对于给定的概率，可估计时间间隔的值或它所处的区间．     

信息增益在地震趋势估计中的应用

从熵中信息增益的定义出发，将地震中的能量和频度作为一个整体考虑，研究了全球１９００－１９９２斫Ｍ≥６．０地震的信息增益。结果表明，强震前有信息增益减小的特点。信息增益方法的引入，为利用中小地震进入地震跟踪预报提供了一个新途径。     

Short Term and Short Range Seismicity Patterns in Different Seismic Areas of the World

The aim of this work is to quantitatively set up a simple hypothesis for occurrence of earthquakes conditioned by prior events, on the basis of a previously existing model and the use of recent instrumental observations. A simple procedure is presented in order to determine the conditional probability of pairs of events (foreshock-mainshock, mainshock-aftershock) with short time and space separation. The first event of a pair should not be an aftershock, i.e., it must not be related to a stronger previous event. The Italian earthquake catalog of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) (1975–1995, M 3.4), the earthquake catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (1983–1994, M 3.0) and that of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) (1982–1994, M 3.8) were analyzed. The number of observed pairs depends on several parameters: the size of the space-time quiescence volume defining nonaftershocks, the inter event time, the minimum magnitude of the two events, and the spatial dimension of the alarm volume after the first event. The Akaike information criterion has been adopted to assess the optimum set of space-time parameters used in the definition of the pairs, assuming that the occurrence rate of subsequent events may be modeled by two Poisson processes with different rates: the higher rate refers to the space-time volume defined by the alarms and the lower one simulates earthquakes that occur in the nonalarm space-time volume. On the basis of the tests carried out on the seismic catalog of Italy, the occurrence rate of M 3.8 earthquakes followed by a M 3.8 mainshock within 10 km and 10 days (validity) is 0.459. We have observed, for all three catalogs, that the occurrence rate density for the second event of a couple (mainshock or aftershock) of magnitude M₂ subsequent to a nonaftershock of magnitude M₁ in the time range T can be modeled by the following relationship: (T, M₂) = 10^{a + b(M1 - M2)} with b varying from 0.74 (Japan) to 1.09 (Greece). The decrease of the occurrence rate in time for a mainshock after a foreshock or for large aftershocks after a mainshock, for all three databases, obeys the Omori's law with p changing from 0.94 (Italy) to 2.0 (Greece).     

柔性版印刷网点扩大与变形的研究与控制

从柔版印刷传递过程入手，分析印刷压力、加网线数、印版硬度等影响网点增大的几个主要因素，通过实验得到它们之间的影响曲线，最终提出控制柔版网点增大的控制方法，有利于实际生产中提高柔性版印刷品的质量。     

转移概率预报方法在霜冻预报中的应用

本文在简介转移概率预报方法及最大概率预报原理的基础上,分析了吕梁市1957年～2000年霜冻初、终日期各随机时间序列状态之间的转换规律,结合各序列的初始分布,建立预报模型,并对1995年～2004年的初、终霜日期进行了预报效果检验。结果表明,该方法预报效果好,使用性强,具有良好的应用前景。