Hilbert-Huang变换与地震信号的时频分析

本文介绍了HHT时频分析方法及瞬时频率的概念，给出了已知信号的经验模态分解及其时频分布，并对实际地震波形信号进行了HHT时频处理与剖析。结果表明，HHT方法能准确描述地震波形信号的非线性时变特征，是地震信号时频分析的有效工具。     

利用Aki模型对宁夏及邻区尾波Q值的研究

利用单次散射的Aki模型,选取2008年1月-2009年12月宁夏地震台网记录的82次ML≥2.0地震的数字地震波资料,计算宁夏及邻区尾波Q值,拟合Q值对频率的依赖关系.全区域数据结果为Q(f)=(212±87.62)·f0.7584±0.19.与国内其它区域相比,本区域Q值较低、对频率依赖性较高.结合区域地震地质构造...     

综合前兆异常月频次在地震预报中的应用及其意义

依据中国地震局分析预报中心的周、月会商会和年度会商会所提供的综合前兆异常,即震前所提出的各类前兆异常,研究了中国大陆地区内的综合前兆异常月频次在地震预报中的应用和时空演化特征。该结果有利于预报水平的提高和对前兆异常实质的进一步认识,并可从中了解大区域应力场的加强过程和空间演化过程,为研究地震动力学、地震活动幕提供了前兆方面的资料。此外,由于是应用震前提出的前兆异常从大区域内进行的地震总结,不同于以往震例总结中的以具体地震为目标的局部总结,因而提出了一些新问题、新思路。     

Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario,Canada

Abstract

Southern Ontario, Canada, has been impacted in recent years by many heavy rainfall and flooding events that have exceeded existing historical estimates of infrastructure design rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values. These recent events and the limited number of short-duration recording raingauges have prompted the need to research the climatology of heavy rainfall events within the study area, review the existing design IDF methodologies, and evaluate alternative approaches to traditional point-based heavy rainfall IDF curves, such as regional IDF design values. The use of additional data and the regional frequency analysis methodology were explored for the study area, with the objective of validating identified clusters or homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall amounts through Ward's method. As the results illustrate, nine homogeneous regions were identified in Southern Ontario using the annual maximum series (AMS) for daily and 24-h rainfall data from climate and rate-of-rainfall or tipping bucket raingauge (TBRG) stations, respectively. In most cases, the generalized extreme value and logistic distributions were identified as the statistical distributions that provide the best fit for the 24-h and sub-daily rainfall data in the study area. A connection was observed between extreme rainfall variability, temporal scale of heavy rainfall events and location of each homogeneous region. Moreover, the analysis indicated that scaling factors cannot be used reliably to estimate sub-daily and sub-hourly values from 24- and 1-h data in Southern Ontario.

Citation Paixao, E., Auld, H., Mirza, M.M.Q., Klaassen, J. & Shephard, M.W. (2011) Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario, Canada. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1067–1089.     

Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.     

Regional variation of mechanical and chemical denudation,upper Colorado River Basin,U.S.A.

The variation of mechanical and chemical denudation is investigated using discharge and sediment yield data from the Upper Colorado River System. Annual precipitation ranges from approximately 150 mm to 1500 mm. Mean specific yield ranges from 0-2 1/s km² ( = 6 mm p a) to 151/s km² ( = 475 mm p a). The hydrological-geomorphological system adjusts itself to these varying climatic conditions; in some areas, however, the effects of lithology or land use seem to override the climatic controls. It is demonstrated that the increase in the absolute and particularly the relative amount of suspended sediment is closely related to a decrease in annual runoff and to an increase in the importance of high magnitude/low frequency events. This indicates that in areas of low annual runoff and high runoff variability, soluble rocks are more resistant than in more humid areas. During high magnitude/low frequency events, suspended sediment concentrations and loads are very high in semiarid areas due to sparse vegetation cover and dominance of direct runoff. Events of moderate magnitude and frequency, which in more humid areas transport most of the dissolved load, seldom occur. The trend towards increasing mechanical denudation is even observed in areas of very low runoff (0-221/s km² = 7 mm p a). The peak of sediment yield in dry areas seems to approximate the point of no runoff very closely. Mechanical and chemical denudation are of equal importance at a runoff of about 300 mm per year.     

岩体裂隙充水后对拐角频率的影响

2002年在浙江温州的珊溪水库发生了一系列水库诱发地震，其拐角频率明显小于同震级的构造地震。本从二相介质理论出发，讨论了水库岩体在扩容、流体渗入饱和和强度弱化过程中波速和波速比的变化以及对拐角频率的影响。根据实验结果，当孔隙度为0．15，岩体弹性模量减小23％时，拐角频率可以减小约29％。由此解释了水库诱发地震拐角频率偏小主要是由裂隙发育和库水渗透扩散使地壳浅部岩体强度弱化引起的。因此拐角频率可以作为区别两的一个依据。     

广东低温阴雨的低频振荡及环流特征

为了做好广东2—3月低温阴雨的中期与延伸期预报,该文分析了1953—2011年广州低温阴雨年景变化与广东低温阴雨年景变化的关系,并采用小波分析、相关分析等方法探讨了12月—次年4月广州逐日气温的低频振荡及与低温阴雨的关系。结果表明:广州低温阴雨的年景变化与广东年景一致的相同率达94.9%(56/59)。轻度低温阴雨年份,12月—次年4月广州逐日气温主要存在8.0~18.3 d显著周期,而中等及严重年份主要存在10.1~28.4 d及30~89.6 d的振荡。2—3月长低温阴雨主要与18 d以上的周期振荡有关,尤其与45 d以上的季节内振荡强度变化密切相关。利用典型个例的合成分析,建立了长低温阴雨30~64 d季节内振荡的天气概念模型,它们反映了长低温阴雨回暖—降温—开始—维持—结束的大气环流演变特征,其中乌拉尔山—贝加尔湖以西的阻塞高压可作为广东出现长低温阴雨的500 hPa前兆信号。     

Relationship between the Late Spring NAO and Summer Extreme Precipitation Frequency in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV) is examined using an NECP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and daily precipitation data from 74 stations in the MLYRV. The results show a significant negative correlation between the May NAO index and the EPF over the MLYRV in the subsequent summer. In positive EPF index years, the East Asian westerly jet shifts farther southward, and two blocking high positive anomalies appear over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Ural Mountains. These anomalies are favorable to the cold air from the mid-high latitudes invading the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The moisture convergence and the ascending motion dominate the MLYRV. The above patterns are reversed in negative EPF index years. A wave train pattern that originates from the North Atlantic extends eastward to the Mediterranean and then moves to the Tibetan Plateau and from there to the YRV, which is an important link in the May NAO and the summer extreme precipitation in the MLYRV. The wave train may be aroused by the tripole pattern of the SST, which can explain why the May NAO affects the summer EPF in the MLYRV.     

Analytical solution for frequency response of equipment in laterally loaded multistorey buildings

An analytical and closed-form frequency response of equipment mounted on multistorey buildings subjected to horizontal ground motion is proposed. In this study, the dynamics of the equipment and the building is expressed as a state-flow graph model, in which the interaction effect between the equipment and the building is considered. Based on the graph model, the analytical results for the frequency response of the acceleration of the equipment and the internal force in the support are derived. One of the advantages of this method is that the closed-form solutions of the frequency response expressed by polynomial form will be easily examined by analytical and numerical computations without complex operation. Moreover, the dynamic of the primary and secondary systems and their dynamic interaction are expressed separately in the derived formula. Thus most of the items in the formula need not be computed repeatedly for different supports of the equipment in design. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.