非线性时间序列分析的最新进展及其在地球科学中的应用前景

评述了非线性时间序列分析的最新进展,包括相空间重构、序列性质的鉴别、建模与预报,同时介绍了非线性时间序列分析在地球科学中的应用概况。     

中国大陆强震中期预报指标研究

在总结近几年预报经验的基础上,主要依据地震活动性资料,从分析全球大震活动规律入手,采用概率预测推理方法对一些重要的相关地震事件或现象进行了深入的分析研究,提出了一系列可用于中国大陆７级大震预测及趋势估计的中期指标．     

断裂密度法在新疆地震预报中的应用

断裂密度衍是引自吉尔吉斯斯坦的一种测震学地震预报新方法,用以探索大震之前某一区域或地段面断裂密度的异常变化。应用该方法对新疆天山部分地区进行系统研究后,根据研究结果制定出了具有一定信度的定量或半定量预报指标。     

SP—2305气相色谱仪在地震预报中的应用

本文对监测地下深部气体组分含量变化,在地震预报中的作用作了论述,对开展天山地震带气体地震前兆研究的条件和SP—2305色谱仪观测条件的选择作了分析,最后,对气体测量在地震预报中的效应进行了探讨。     

Geographical Conditions and National Strategies

This paper is a summary based on the relationship between national conditions and development strategies for decades of consulting research. Through cases, the paper outlined the basic meaning of national conditions and geographical conditions and their close relationship with national development strategies, and emphasized the importance of comprehensive thinking and scientific judgment in the process of carrying out the governments’ strategies and development policies, and making development policies. At last, suggestions were made that the points of China’s national conditions and the rules of connection with government decision-making should be written into geography textbooks as well as into textbooks for party schools of the Communist Party of China.     

江西省冻雨垂直温度层结分析及预报

利用1960-2013年江西省89个气象观测站常规观测资料,采用统计分析和插值处理方法,对江西106次冻雨过程垂直温度层结进行分析,并建立冻雨预报思路。结果表明：江西省冻雨发生通常伴随1000-850 hPa剧烈降温和700 hPa增温,925-700 hPa存在明显逆温。融化层是冻雨发生的必要条件,87.7 %样本融化层位于700 hPa,9.4 %样本融化层位于850 hPa;一般以1000 hPa温度<1.0 ℃、925 hPa和850 hPa温度<-2.0 ℃和700 hPa温度≥0.0 ℃作为江西冻雨预报的温度阈值标准,同时也应注意融化层位于850 hPa的情况。地面气温越低,越有利于冻雨形成,冻雨发生时最低气温为0.0 ℃以下,平均气温为1.0 ℃以下。冷暖空气持续在27°-28 °N交汇,且鄱阳湖以南至抚河流域平均气温＜1.0 ℃和最低气温＜0.0 ℃出现比其他地区多,造成该区域冻雨发生频次比其他地区明显偏多。另外,通过大气逆温层结、地面气温与冻雨的对应关系,建立基于模式资料和常规观测资料的自动诊断方法。     

Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?

Applied flood risk analyses, especially in urban areas, very often pose the question how detailed the analysis needs to be in order to give a realistic figure of the expected risk. The methods used in research and practical applications range from very basic approaches with numerous simplifying assumptions up to very sophisticated, data and calculation time demanding applications both on the hazard and on the vulnerability part of the risk. In order to shed some light on the question of required model complexity in flood risk analyses and outputs sufficiently fulfilling the task at hand, a number of combinations of models of different complexity both on the hazard and on the vulnerability side were tested in a case study. The different models can be organized in a model matrix of different complexity levels: On the hazard side, the approaches/models selected were (A) linear interpolation of gauge water levels and intersection with a digital elevation model (DEM), (B) a mixed 1D/2D hydraulic model with simplifying assumptions (LISFLOOD-FP) and (C) a Saint-Venant 2D zero-inertia hyperbolic hydraulic model considering the built environment and infrastructure. On the vulnerability side, the models used for the estimation of direct damage to residential buildings are in order of increasing complexity: (I) meso-scale stage-damage functions applied to CORINE land cover data, (II) the rule-based meso-scale model FLEMOps+ using census data on the municipal building stock and CORINE land cover data and (III) a rule-based micro-scale model applied to a detailed building inventory. Besides the inundation depths, the latter two models consider different building types and qualities as well as the level of private precaution and contamination of the floodwater. The models were applied in a municipality in east Germany, Eilenburg. It suffered extraordinary damage during the flood of August 2002, which was well documented as were the inundation extent and depths. These data provide an almost unique data set for the validation of flood risk analyses. The analysis shows that the combination of the 1D/2D model and the meso-scale damage model FLEMOps+ performed best and provide the best compromise between data requirements, simulation effort, and an acceptable accuracy of the results. The more detailed approaches suffered from complex model set-up, high data requirements, and long computation times.     

旅游资源丰富县(市)的旅游开发研究--以河南省卫辉市为例

国内外旅游产业发展方兴未艾,国内许多旅游资源丰厚但开发相对滞后的县(市)正在积极赶超。文章以河南省卫辉市为例对此类型县(市)的旅游开发总体思路进行了探讨,提出了加速启动、扬优化劣、强化组织、统筹安排的总体开发思路。     

Assessing the Validity of Seismo-Acoustic Predictor Equations for Obtaining Seabed and Sub-Surface Sediment Physical Properties

The interdependence between the seismo-acoustic properties of a marine sediment and its geotechnical/physical parameters has been known for many years, and it has been postulated that this should allow the extraction of geotechnical information from seismic data. Though in the literature many correlations have been published for the surficial layer, there is a lack of information for greater sediment depths. In this article, a desktop study on a synthetic seafloor model illustrates how the application of published near-surface prediction equations to subsurface sediments (up to several tens of meters burial depth) can lead to spurious predictions. To test this further, acoustic and geotechnical properties were measured on a number of sediment core samples, some of which were subjected to loading in acoustically-equipped consolidation cells (oedometers) to simulate greater burial depth conditions. For low effective pressures (representing small burial depths extending to around 10 meters subsurface), the general applicability of established relationships was confirmed: the prediction of porosity, bulk density, and mean grain size from acoustic velocity and impedance appears generally possible for the investigated sedimentary environments. As effective pressure increases through, the observed relationships deviate more and more from the established ones for the near-surface area. For the samples tested in this study, in some instances increasing pressure even resulted in decreasing velocities. There are several possible explanations for this abnormal behavior, including the presence of gas, overconsolidation, or bimodal grain size distribution. The results indicate that an appropriate depth correction must be introduced into the published prediction equations in order to obtain reliable estimates of physical sediment properties for greater subsurface depths.     

太阳黑子活动与新疆强震活动的关系

使用1900年以来的太阳黑子数据,统计分析了其与新疆地区MS≥6.6强震的关系。结果显示：新疆地区69%的MS≥6.6和86%的MS≥7的地震,发生在黑子数月均值≤35的时段内。以黑子数月均值≤20和≤35的时段作为MS≥6.6强震的预测指标,报准率分别为71%和64%;以黑子数月均值≤35的时段作为MS≥6.6强震的预测指标,报准率为69%。R值评分检验表明,上述预测指标是有效的。最后使用这些统计关系和指标对新疆未来几年发生强震的可能性作了估计。