国内外基础地质数据更新现状与思考

在大数据、云计算、移动互联网等信息技术的推动下,地质科研范式正由过去的经验范式、理论范式向数据密集型范式转变。基础地质数据是国家基础性、战略性、公益性地质调查工作成果,反映了地质调查的精度和质量,是地质调查工作创新、服务和可持续发展的基点与源泉,决定了地质调查事业发展的战略制高点和竞争力。在以密集数据为基础的科学研究第四范式即将来临之际,基础地质数据的数量、质量和更新时效已成为衡量一个国家地质调查工作水准的基础标准之一。大部分国家按照严格的技术标准实现了基础地质数据库的实时更新和基础地质数据与图件的一体化表达,并面向社会需求研发出类别丰富的地质数据衍生产品。我国虽然建成了地质云平台,实现了一批数据库的汇聚和共享,但基础地质数据更新机制尚不健全,影响了宏观尺度的地质认知水平;基础地质数据更新标准与技术刚刚提上日程,制约了地质调查工作的支撑服务能力;基础地质数据研发服务能力不足,限制了数据更新的外在需求。基于此,本文提出了依托地质云平台构建基础地质数据更新体系的建议:一是建立“地质云节点一盘棋”的数据更新工作机制;二是构建全国统一的基础地质数据更新标准体系;三是构建“大数据、智能化和在线化”三位一体的数据更新技术体系;四是打造多方稳定协同的数据更新队伍体系。     

矿井涌水量预测的比拟法计算公式待定系数讨论

以典型矿山多年实际的开采及排水序列资料为基础、相关学科理论为指导,通过对开采及排水资料的"二次开发",探讨了不同水文地质类型矿床的矿井涌水量预测比拟法计算公式中待定系数的特点,以及随开采面积(F)和开采疏干降深(S)的变化趋势和规律。研究结果表明:参数"m"、"n"是随开采疏干降深(S)和开采面积(F)增加而加大的变量;不同类型矿床中参数n值均大于m值;岩溶水充水矿床中参数"m"、"n"相对稳定,而基岩裂隙水充水矿床具有明显的分段性特征。指出了单纯"面积比拟法"、"降深比拟法"对矿井涌水量预测的不合理性,以及在参数"m"、"n"取值中加强水文地质勘查资料综合研究的重要性。     

Land use/land cover change detection and prediction in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt using Markov-CA

Detecting land-use change has become of concern to environmentalists, conservationists and land use planners due to its impact on natural ecosystems. We studied land use/land cover (LULC) changes in part of the northwestern desert of Egypt and used the Markov-CA integrated approach to predict future changes. We mapped the LULC distribution of the desert landscape for 1988, 1999, and 2011. Landsat Thematic Mapper 5 data and ancillary data were classified using the random forests approach. The technique produced LULC maps with an overall accuracy of more than 90%. Analysis of LULC classes from the three dates revealed that the study area was subjected to three different stages of modification, each dominated by different land uses. The use of a spatially explicit land use change modeling approach, such as Markov-CA approach, provides ways for projecting different future scenarios. Markov-CA was used to predict land use change in 2011 and project changes in 2023 by extrapolating current trends. The technique was successful in predicting LULC distribution in 2011 and the results were comparable to the actual LULC for 2011. The projected LULC for 2023 revealed more urbanization of the landscape with potential expansion in the croplands westward and northward, an increase in quarries, and growth in residential centers. The outcomes can help management activities directed toward protection of wildlife in the area. The study can also be used as a guide to other studies aiming at projecting changes in arid areas experiencing similar land use changes.     

样本输入方式对极端学习机预报日长变化的影响

针对极端学习机(Extreme Learning Machine,ELM)用于日长(Length-Of-Day,LOD)变化预报过程中,样本输入方式对预报结果的影响进行了研究。采用跨度、连续和迭代3种样本输入方式对日长变化进行预报。结果表明,不同的样本输入方式对预报结果有很大影响,样本按跨度输入的预报精度最低;样本采用连续输入方式在短期和中长期预报中预报精度较高,但计算速度较慢,较适合中长期预报;样本按迭代输入方式的短期预报精度稍优于连续输入方式,而中长期预报精度则不如连续输入方式,但具有较高的预报效率。这对于日长变化的实时快速预报有着较高的现实意义。     

Geoeffective Analysis of CMEs Under Current Sheet Magnetic Coordinates

Using 100 CME–ICME events during 1997.01–2002.11, based on the eruptive source locations of CMEs and solar magnetic field observations at the photosphere, a current sheet magnetic coordinate (CMC) system is established in order to statistically study the characteristics of the CME–ICME events and the corresponding geomagnetic storm intensity. The transit times of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth are also investigated, by taking into account of the angle between the CME eruption normal (defined as the vector from the Sun center to the CME eruption source) and the Sun-Earth line. Our preliminary conclusions are: 1. The distribution of the CME sources in our CMC system is obviously different from that in the ordinary heliographic coordinate system. The sources of CMEs are mainly centralized near the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and the number of events decreases with the increment of the angular distance from the CME source to the HCS on the solar surface; 2. A large portion of the total events belong to the same–side events (referring to the CME source located on the same side of the HCS as the Earth), while only a small portion belong to the opposite–side events (the CME source located on the opposite side of the HCS as the Earth). 3. The intense geomagnetic storms are usually induced by the same–side events, while the opposite side events are commonly associated with relatively weak geomagnetic storms; 4. The angle between the CME normal and the Sun–Earth line is used to estimate the transit time of the CME in order to reflect the influence of propagation characteristic of the CME along the Sun–Earth direction. With our new prediction method in context of the CMC coordinate, the averaged absolute error for these 100 events is 10.33 hours and the resulting relative error is not larger than 30% for 91% of all the events.     

构造地质学中的地质思维初探

地质模型的建立,地质思维的正确运用已成为引导地质学前进的两个关键环节。本文以构造地质学领域中近年来的研究成果为基础,探讨了与空间和时间有关的地质思维问题。指出:一个地质现象的观察,一定要结合高一级尺度和低一级尺度的综合研究,才能得出既有形成机制、又有组合规律的全面结论;一个构造形迹,一定要尽力区分出不同的递进变形阶段,以提供以时间为坐标的演化序列。文末,笔者提供了两个研究实例,一个用小构造分析论证区域构造演化,一个据叠加变形原理,把研究对象区分成不同的区段和亚域。     

Bias and uncertainty in regression-calibrated models of groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector β that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation γθ_∗, where γ is an interpolation matrix and θ_∗ is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector θ_∗ has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(γθ_∗) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of β, f(β), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(β) − f(γθ_∗), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate θ_∗ and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(β) and f(γθ_∗) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis.     

COSMOPOLITANISM: THE MEDITERRANEAN ARCHIVES†

The existing postcolonial literature privileges the British and French imperial/colonial history that mirrors the ongoing debate on the relationship among cosmopolitanism, universalism, and imperialism. These debates take for granted the Kantian and Hegelian hierarchy of European civilizations, hence marginalizing the southern shores of Europe and the broader Mediterranean space. Drawing on Mignolo's notion of “border thinking” and on Isin's account of the city as a “difference machine,” I address the issue of how imperialism, colonialism, and cosmopolitanism come together and relate to each other in the context of the Mediterranean (allegedly) cosmopolitan cities. In particular, cosmopolitanism is read as the outcome of the reciprocal adjustment of interior and exterior borders in the making of modernity/coloniality in the Mediterranean. Focusing on the Ottoman millet system, my main claim in this article is that cosmopolitanism worked as a peculiar dispositif within the urban difference machine, enabling the city to sustain the tension between different accounts of citizenship.     

On Methods of Teaching Geography

This study investigates the location and varying spatiality of questions in geography textbooks. The results show that study questions posed in page margins address the three components of spatial thinking—concepts of space, using tools of representation, and processes of reasoning—more than questions in other locations within the text. Three practices are particularly recommended to help students develop spatial thinking skills through answering textbook questions: (1) utilize page-margin questions; (2) select questions around spatial representations; and (3) focus on higher-level cognitive processes.     

Popular Culture,Geopolitics, and Identity

Abstract

This study aims to theoretically investigate the notion of critical thinking for a more just understanding of self and “others” in global geographical learning. It focuses on the kinds of injustice in the world which are driven by our relationships with “others.” By drawing on the literature of critical education, philosophy of education, and geography education, this study reveals how universal notions of criticality tend to easily undermine those perceived as global others and may highlight, in deficit mode, their perceived differences. Instead, the study presents the imperative of deconstructive thinking for a more just world. The article concludes by proposing a teaching strategy for alternative criticality which strives for justice in school geography.