地震前后CT图像的变化

采用井间电磁波ＣＴ技术，对大灰厂断层进行了５年定期监测，发现中强震（ＭＬ≥４０，震中距Δ＜２１０ｋｍ）发生前３个月左右，ＣＴ图像出现下述变化：吸收系统均值在逐年降低的基本趋势下，进一步下降１０％左右；象素的灰度差分均值在不同方向上突然下降或上升；图像灰度共生矩阵的熵值下降；低吸收象素增多。分析表明，震前岩石裂隙与孔隙结构的变化导致了电磁波ＣＴ图像的变化。电磁波ＣＴ技术有可能作为一种探测地震前兆的新手段。     

Sequential processes in a landslide hazard at a slate quarry in Okayama,Japan

The 12 March 2001 landslide at a slate quarry in Okayama, Japan killed three workers. Composite studies based on field surveys of the landslide slope, interviews with local residents and quarry workers, and inspections of hydrological and seismological data have been used to clarify the causes of this slide and its movements. The results indicate that the landslide was enabled firstly by the steepness of the slope, which had been undercut by river; secondly, the structure was that of a dip-slope that was prone to deep-seated slides along bedding planes; thirdly, numerous joints and faults were present. Surprisingly, rainfall, earthquakes, and explosions do not appear to have played any role in the triggering of this slide. The interviews demonstrated that the frequency of precursory failures increased over a period of several hours before the 12 March 2001 landslide. Inspection of the seismograph records and the eyewitness evidence both indicate that the main part of the landslide consisted of two phases of slope failure within 23 s. After the slide, the frequency of the failures gradually decreased with time over a period of several days. Three new terms are proposed for landslides: foreslide, mainslide, and afterslide, following the terms foreshock, main shock, and aftershock used in seismology.     

东亚夏季风强度的多尺度统计预测模型

东亚夏季风强度的变化与中国雨带和旱涝分布密切相关。为了做好东亚夏季风强度的短期气候预测,采用小波分析、Lanczos滤波器、交叉检验等方法,研究了东亚夏季风强度的多尺度变化特征,在年际与年代际尺度上分别寻找了它在前冬海温场、200 hPa纬向风场上的前兆信号,并利用最优子集回归建立了东亚夏季风强度的多尺度统计物理预测模型。结果表明:东亚夏季风强度存在准4年、准13年和准43年的周期振荡。年际尺度上,前冬赤道东太平洋(10°N~10°S,160°W~80°W)海温与东亚夏季风强度有最强的显著负相关,且它与东亚夏季风强度在200 hPa纬向风场上的前兆信号有较强的负相关;年代际尺度上,南半球60°S与35°S附近200 hPa纬向风之差与东亚夏季风强度有最强的显著正相关,且它与东亚夏季风强度在热带印度洋、低纬度东南太平洋、低纬度南大西洋的海温及亚洲副热带200 hPa纬向风等前兆信号有强的正相关。通过探讨这两个前兆因子对东亚夏季风强度的预测意义,揭示了他们影响东亚夏季风强度年际和年代际变化的可能物理过程。所建立的东亚夏季风强度多尺度最优子集回归预测模型,不仅对东亚夏季风强度的年际变化具有较好的预测能力,而且对异常极值年份也具有一定的预测能力。     

厦门市的震前电磁波观测

本文记述了厦门市地震局几年来开展电磁波观测的情况,以及对各种非震异常信号的识别探索。     

A review on remotely sensed land surface temperature anomaly as an earthquake precursor

The low predictability of earthquakes and the high uncertainty associated with their forecasts make earthquakes one of the worst natural calamities, capable of causing instant loss of life and property. Here, we discuss the studies reporting the observed anomalies in the satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) before an earthquake. We compile the conclusions of these studies and evaluate the use of remotely sensed LST anomalies as precursors of earthquakes. The arrival times and the amplitudes of the anomalies vary widely, thus making it difficult to consider them as universal markers to issue earthquake warnings. Based on the randomness in the observations of these precursors, we support employing a global-scale monitoring system to detect statistically robust anomalous geophysical signals prior to earthquakes before considering them as definite precursors.     

震前大地电场的前兆及其机理

研究了震前大地电场的前兆及其机理,主要结果：１．测点周围２９０ｋｍ 范围内５级以上地震前都出现大地电场前兆;２．岩石变形、破裂和磨擦、介质极化生电可能是大地电场前兆机理之一。     

Research on Earthquake Precursor Attractor and Its Predictability

Based on the body strain observation data at Liyang and Xuzhou stations, the Correlation Dimension D2 and the second-order Renyi entropy K2 of the attractor are calculated and studied. In addition, a new method of evaluating the longest predictable time of precursor attractor is advanced under the condition of a certain anomalous criterion rule. The conclusion indicates that the body strain precursor attractor is one of the chaotic attractors and it has some determinate change rules such as the dimension declines before an earthquake and the number of the independent factors on which the variation of the system depends is within the range of 5 - 12. The conclusion also indicates that the longest evaluated predictable time of the body strain attractor is 213 days at the Liyang station and 342 days at the Xuzhou station. It is clear that this research can be of great reference value for recognizing the nonlinear behavior of precursor attractors and for evaluating the predictability of different precursor     

中国大陆自然电场的前兆机理与特征

首先回顾了中国大陆地区震前自然电场前兆特征研究的发展历程.着重论述了震前自然电场的范围、形态、时间、与震级统计关系等前兆特征;指出震前自然电场产生的几种机理:过滤电场、扩散--吸附电位、电化学电位、机电转换效应以及压力作用下黄土层自然电位的变化;分析了自然电场是多种电信号叠加而成的一个综合电位,趋势性背景、季节性变化、地震信号和干扰因素都会引起岩石电阻率、土壤中溶液的溶解度和电离度、地下水的渗透条件、大地电场和自然电场的一系列变化.而面导电机制、体导电结构的变化造成宏观电阻率各向异性的增强并形成各测点间的电位异常,其形成机理和电磁响应特征的研究都能较好地认识地震前兆.     

Magma chamber evolution prior to the Campanian Ignimbrite and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruptions (Campi Flegrei,Italy)

The Campi Flegrei (Campanian Region, Italy) experienced two cataclysmic caldera-forming eruptions which produced the Campanian Ignimbrite (39 ka, CI) and the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (15 ka, NYT). We studied the minor eruptions before both these large events to understand magma chamber evolution leading towards such catastrophic eruptions. Major, trace element, and Sr and Nd isotope compositions of pre-Campanian Ignimbrite and pre-Neapolitan Yellow Tuff products define distinct geochemical groups, which are here interpreted as distinct magma batches. These batches do not show any transitional trend towards the CI and NYT eruptions. The CI and NYT systems are decoupled geochemically and isotopically. At least one of the pre-CI and one of the pre-NYT erupted magma batches qualifies as mixing endmembers for the large CI and NYT eruptions, and thus, must have been stored in reservoirs for some time to remain available for the CI and NYT eruptions. The least evolved, isotopically distinct magma compositions that are typical of the last phases of the NYT and CI eruptions did not occur before caldera-forming events. Based on the new data, we propose the following scenario: Multiple magma chambers with distinct compositions existed below the Campi Flegrei before the CI and NYT eruptions and remained generally separated for some time unless new magma was recharged. In each case, one of the residing magma reservoirs was recharged by a new large-volume magma input of intermediate composition from a deeper differentiating magma reservoir. This may have triggered the coalescence of the previously separated reservoirs into one large chamber which fed the cataclysmic caldera-forming eruption. Large magma chambers in the Campi Flegrei may therefore be ephemeral features, interrupted by periods of evolution in individual, separated magma reservoirs.     

2014 年2 月12 日于田MS 7. 3地震前形变异常

介绍了2014 年2 月12 日新疆于田MS7. 3 地震周围区域前兆监测能力及震前和田台金属摆存在的趋势性异常和中短期异常,并与2008 年3 月21 日于田MS7. 3 地震前兆异常进行对比分析。研究结果表明,本次地震前趋势性异常表现为2012 年以后金属摆倾斜趋势性东倾变化,中短期异常表现为两分量的速率变化加速、停滞,矢量方向和模长突变的特征;2 次7 级地震前和田台金属摆倾斜趋势性异常相同,都发生在趋势性东倾阶段,而中短期异常在持续时间、异常特征和发震间隔等方面存在显著不同。