糯扎渡电站坝基花岗岩工程地质及物理力学特性

糯扎渡水电站坝址区主要分布花岗岩,研究、认识花岗岩体工程地质特性,合理选择岩体物理力学参数,对大坝安全和经济十分重要.大量地质勘察及试验研究,对坝址区花岗岩体的成因、分布,及岩体质量等做出科学评价,提出合理且符合实际的力学参数指标建议值,为电站的建设提供了可靠的地质依据.     

基于GIS的油田电力系统网络分析系统的实现

随着GIS技术及相关学科的不断发展,GIS在石油业应用越来越广。电力网络是油田系统的重要组成部分。基于ArcObjects组件对象,开发实现了油田电力网络断电影响分析和故障源分析等网络追踪分析功能,对提高油田系统的科学化管理和决策具有重要意义。     

丹东华能电厂主厂房震害预测

丹东华能电厂主厂房属高层建筑，结构型式复杂。本文采用现场测试与结构反应计算相结合的方法，计算了结构内力与楼层延伸率，最终给出了震害预测结果。     

Sensitivity analysis of the parameters of earthquake recurrence time power law scaling

The stability of the power law scaling of earthquake recurrence time distribution in a given space–time window is investigated, taking into account the magnitude of completeness and the effective starting time of aftershock sequences in earthquake catalogs from Southern California and Japan. A new method is introduced for sampling at different distances from a network of target events. This method allows the recurrence times to be sampled many times on the same area. Two power laws with unknown exponents are assumed to govern short- and long-recurrence-time ranges. This assumption is developed analytically and shown to imply simple correlation between these power laws. In practice, the results show that this correlation structure is not satisfied for short magnitude cutoffs (m _c = 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), and hence the recurrence time distribution departs from the power law scaling. The scaling parameters obtained from the stack of the distributions corresponding to different magnitude thresholds are quite different for different regions of study. It is also found that significantly different scaling parameters adjust the distribution for different magnitude thresholds. In particular, the power law exponents decrease when the magnitude cutoff increases, resulting in a slower decrease of the recurrence time distribution, especially for short time ranges. For example, in the case of Japan, the exponent p₂ of the power law scaling at large recurrence times follows roughly the relation: , where m _c is the magnitude cutoff. In case of Southern California, it is shown that Weibull distribution provides a better alternative fit to the data for moderate and large time scales.     

精密引潮位展开的精度评定

文中介绍了一个新的引潮位展开,含有潮波3070项及一些新的信息;潮波振幅给至小数点后第6位.为了与精密引潮位比较,专门建立了一套标准数据,其精度为±0.001μGal.按照这一标准数据,我们评价了精密引潮位展开的精度,并给出了其余差及功率谱分析的结果.结果表明,对于潮汐重力,精密引潮位展开的精度,可达±0.005μGal.     

云龙县红土田电站地质灾害防治

通过项目区环境地质条件及地质灾害特征发析,地质灾害危险性评估,结合工程技术经济条件和山区地质灾害发育特点,提出地质灾害防治方案,供工程设计和施工参考。     

On selection of kernel parametes in relevance vector machines for hydrologic applications

Recent advances in statistical learning theory have yielded tools that are improving our capabilities for analyzing large and complex datasets. Among such tools, relevance vector machines (RVMs) are finding increasing applications in hydrology because of (1) their excellent generalization properties, and (2) the probabilistic interpretation associated with this technique that yields prediction uncertainty. RVMs combine the strengths of kernel-based methods and Bayesian theory to establish relationships between a set of input vectors and a desired output. However, a bias–variance analysis of RVM estimates revealed that a careful selection of kernel parameters is of paramount importance for achieving good performance from RVMs. In this study, several analytic methods are presented for selection of kernel parameters. These methods rely on structural properties of the data rather than expensive re-sampling approaches commonly used in RVM applications. An analytical expression for prediction risk in leave-one-out cross validation is derived. For brevity, the effectiveness of the proposed methods is assessed first by data generated from the benchmark sinc function, followed by an example involving estimation of hydraulic conductivity values over a field based on observations. It is shown that a straightforward maximization of likelihood function can lead to misleading results. The proposed methods are found to yield robust estimates of parameters for kernel functions.     

中国电力行业碳排放达峰及减排潜力分析

推动电力行业低碳发展是中国有效控制CO₂排放和推动尽早达峰的重要抓手。在分别利用学习曲线工具和自下而上技术核算方式分析风电、光伏两类主要的可再生电力和其他各类电源发展趋势的基础上,综合评估了既有政策和强化政策条件下2035年前中国电力行业能源活动碳排放变化趋势。研究发现,既有政策情景下电力行业碳排放在2030年左右达到峰值,届时非化石能源在发电量中比重为44%,而通过强化推动能源绿色低碳发展的相关政策,2025年前即可达到电力行业碳排放峰值,2030年非化石电力在发电量中比重可以提升至51%,其中可再生电力加速发展将分别贡献2025、2030和2035年当年减排量（相对于既有政策情景）的45%、54%和62%。尽管从保障电力稳定安全供应角度,煤电装机仍有一定增长空间,但考虑到电力行业绿色低碳和可持续发展的长期需求,仍应加强对煤电装机的有效控制,“十四五”期间努力将煤电装机控制在11亿kW左右的水平。     

宁夏惠农区新农村典型供电模式应用研究

针对当前农村电网建设中存在的问题,以宁夏惠农区为试点区域,开展新农村典型供电模式应用研究。分别从电网规划建设、电网运行控制及节能减耗等领域进行供电模式的需求分析,在新农村典型供电模式的基础上提出了惠农区典型供电模式与实施规模,实践表明典型供电模式在惠农区具有较好的应用效果。     

碳交易试点地区电力部门配额分配比较研究及对全国的借鉴

全国碳市场将在电力行业启动交易,配额分配方法是其核心。通过试点经验对比分析,将对全国起到借鉴作用。研究结果表明,八试点共纳入电力企业202家,在覆盖范围、信息披露、分配方法、抵消机制等方面存在共性和差异,但普遍存在基准线法基础薄弱、间接排放处理不科学、热电联产供电和供热分摊困难等问题。建议在制定全国碳市场电力部门配额分配方案时应考虑循序渐进、协调推进、稳定性、科学与实用、激励和灵活、公开透明等基本原则。