Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Possible ion-acoustic soliton formation in the ionospheric perturbations observed on DEMETER before the 2007 Pu’er earthquake

The data of ionospheric perturbations observed on DEMETER before the 2007 Pu’er earthquake are analyzed. The three-component plasma (ions, electrons and heavy ions) is studied in the fluid concept. The linear dispersion relation for ion-acoustic wave is found in the presence of heavy ions. The nonlinear dynamics is studied for arbitrary amplitude of the wave. The Sagdeev potential is calculated, which shows that solitary structure exists for Mach number within a range defined by the presence of heavy ions. ...     

黄土高原中东部沙尘与非沙尘天气花粉组成及来源范围

通过黄土高原两个不同地区(浑源、洛川)沙尘与非沙尘天气花粉组合的对比来探讨主要花粉类型最大传播距离。结果表明：沙尘天气花粉汇集量明显高于非沙尘天气,特别是蒿属和藜科花粉,沙尘天气平均是非沙尘天气的3倍以上。随风速增大,花粉可能的最大源区范围明显增大。风速低于3.3 m/s时,蒿属和藜科花粉多来自100 km范围内,其他类型花粉来源范围不超过20 km;风速大于5.9 m/s时,蒿属和藜科花粉源区范围增至300 km以上;其他类型花粉不超过100 km。风速达到12.5 m/s时,蒿属及藜科最大花粉源区范围可达1000 km,其他类型花粉不超过300 km。浑源地区不论平均风速还是最大风速均明显高于洛川地区,因此,主要花粉类型可能的最大源区范围达200 km,大于洛川地区(低于100 km)。     

δ~(18)O, δD and d-excess signatures of ground ice in permafrost in the Beiluhe Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

In this paper, stable isotope(δ~(18)O, δD) investigations were completed in ground ice from a deep borehole in the Beiluhe Basin on northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to unravel the isotopic variations of ground ice and their possible source water. The δ~(18)O and δD of ground ice show distinctive characteristics compared with precipitation and surface water. The near-surface ground ice is highly enriched in heavier isotopes(δ~(18)O and δD), which were gradually depleted from top to bottom along the profile. It is suggestive of different origin and ice formation process. According to isotopic variations, the ice profile was divided into three sections: the near-surface ground ice at 2.5 m is frozen by the active-layer water which suffered evaporation. It is possible that ground ice between 3 and 4.2 m is recharged by the infiltration of snowmelt. From 5 to 6 m, the ground ice show complex origin and formation processes. Isotopic variations from 6 to 11.1 m and 20.55 m indicate different replenishment water. The calculated slope of freezing line(S=6.4) is larger than the experimental value(5.76), and is suggestive of complex origin and formation process of ground ice.     

Baseline determination,pollution source and ecological risk of heavy metals in surface sediments of the Amu Darya Basin,Central Asia

Central Asia(CA) is one of the most fragile regions worldwide owing to arid climate and accumulated human activities, and is a global hotspot due to gradually deteriorating ecological environment. The Amu Darya Basin(ADB), as the most economically and demographically important region in CA, is of particular concern. To determine the concentration,source and pollution status of heavy metals(HMs) in surface sediments of the ADB, 154samples were collected and analyzed for metals across the basin. C...