对南极地区气温的聚类分析

对南极地区的多年月平均气温资料进行聚类分析,结果表明,可以分为极区内陆、海湾区域、东南极沿岸和南极半岛地区四大类型。南极半岛地区一些位于南极圈之外的考察站反映的仍是南极气候状况。     

‘A Case Study on a Polar Cold Air Outbreak over Fram Strait using a Mesoscale Weather Prediction Model’

The mesoscale weather prediction model ’Lokal-Modell’ (LM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst is applied to the situation of an Arctic cold air outbreak in the Fram Strait region in April 1998. Observations are available from a flight along 5⁰E carried out during the ARTIST campaign. Initial and time-dependent boundary data for the simulation are taken from a larger scale operational model system. Using the standard configuration of LM, the simulation reproduced the propagation of cold air and the characteristic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in fair agreement with the observations. However, a detailed comparison revealed three basic problems. Firstly, there is evidence that the available data on sea-ice conditions were insufficient approximations to the true state for several reasons. A modification of the sea-ice data towards observations revealed that parts of the discrepancies were due to the original sea-ice data. Secondly, a control run with the model in its standard configuration shows an insufficient warming of the ABL downstream of the ice edge due to underestimation of surface heat fluxes. A simple modification of the approach for the scalar roughness length resulted in the strongest benefit, while comparative studies showed only a slight sensitivity to different types of parametrisation of turbulent mixing or the inclusion of an additional moist convection parametrisation. Thirdly, in all the simulations the deepening of the convective ABL downstream of the ice edge is weaker than observed. This may be partly due to the thermal stratification above the ABL in the analysis data, which is more stable than observed; but it may also be a hint to the fact that processes near the inversion are insufficiently parametrised in mesoscale models with resolutions as used in LM. The simulated cloud layer in the convective ABL is similar to that observed with respect to condensate content, a sharply defined cloud top, a diffuse lower bound, and continuous light precipitation.     

Instabilities of the tidally induced bottom boundary layer in the rotating frame and their mixing effect

To investigate the stability of the bottom boundary layer induced by tidal flow (oscillating flow) in a rotating frame, numerical experiments have been carried out with a two-dimensional non-hydrostatic model. Under homogeneous conditions three types of instability are found depending on the temporal Rossby number Ro_t, the ratio of the inertial and tidal periods. When Ro_t < 0.9 (subinertial range), the Ekman type I instability occurs because the effect of rotation is dominant though the flow becomes more stable than the steady Ekman flow with increasing Ro_t. When Ro_t > 1.1 (superinertial range), the Stokes layer instability is excited as in the absence of rotation. When 0.9 < Ro_t < 1.1 (near-inertial range), the Ekman type I or type II instability appears as in the steady Ekman layer. Being much thickened (100 m), the boundary layer becomes unstable even if tidal flow is weak (5 cm/s). The large vertical scale enhances the contribution of the Coriolis effect to destabilization, so that the type II instability tends to appear when Ro_t > 1.0. However, when Ro_t < 1.0, the type I instability rather than the type II instability appears because the downward phase change of tidal flow acts to suppress the latter. To evaluate the mixing effect of these instabilities, some experiments have been executed under a weak stratification peculiar to polar oceans (the buoyancy frequency N²  10⁻⁶ s⁻²). Strong mixing occurs in the subinertial and near-inertial ranges such that tracer is well mixed in the boundary layer and an apparent diffusivity there is evaluated at 150–300 cm²/s. This suggests that effective mixing due to these instabilities may play an important role in determining the properties of dense shelf water in the polar regions.     

组合电离层残差与改进的码相伪距探测与修复周跳研究

传统码相组合算法能探测7～8周以上大周跳,而传统的电离层残差法仅对于±4周以内的周跳可实现唯一分离,这限制了两者组合的应用.针对这一问题,对码相组合探测与修复周跳方法进行改进,使得改进的码相组合与电离层残差法能够完全探测周跳.经理论与实验分析,组合改进的码相组合法与电离层残差法两者结合能够完全探测采样间隔小于10 s观测数据中的周跳,对动态非差观测值数据的周跳自动探测与修复有极佳的效果.     

中山站高频雷达观测结果初步分析

中山站高频相干散射雷达于2010年4月建成投入观测,并加盟SuperDARN雷达观测网,成为我国探测电离层对流的重要手段。首先简要介绍中山站高频雷达的工作原理及工作模式,然后利用该雷达第一年的观测数据,给出了每个波束观测的电离层回波总数随距离和回波强度、多普勒速度及谱宽的分布,以及电离层回波发生率随频率的变化特性。观测结果和射线追踪的模拟计算表明,由于波束指向不同,电波波矢方向与地磁场形成正交条件的区域有所不同,因此会造成不同频率下,不同波束观测的电离层回波发生率的差别。     

全球电离层时空变化特性分析

采用谱分析和小波分解的方法对全球电离层VTEC量的时空变化特性进行了分析。使用IGS中心发布的全球电离层网格图数据,分别从高中低纬度全年变化特性、南北半球全年变化特性、全球范围内随经纬度的变化特性对电离层VTEC进行了分析。结果表明,高中低纬度地区VTEC量具有周日和半周年变化现象,在二分点处存在峰值,南半球电离层较北半球电离层活跃,经度变化对VTEC值的影响较纬度变化大,总体上,太阳辐射是电离层活动的主要影响因素。     

基于球谐函数模型的电离层预报

据球谐函数模型系数的特点,采用ARMA(p,q)模型对球谐函数模型系数进行预报,由球谐函数模型计算电离层VTEC。提出了针对某一时刻球谐系数进行预报的方法,相比传统按照时刻顺序的预报,预报时间大大延长,预报精度也有所提高。试验结果表明,相比中高纬度地区,低纬度地区预报精度偏低,同时,一天中不同时刻预报结果有所差别,前半天的预报效果明显好于后半天。     

MEEMD-Elman神经网络的电离层TEC预报模型

利用IGS中心提供的不同纬度的电离层TEC值,建立基于改进的集总平均经验模态分解(MEEMD)算法和Elman回归神经网络(ERNN)模型相结合的电离层TEC预报模型。实验结果表明,在低、中、高不同纬度采用本文方法预报5 d电离层TEC的预测值的均方根误差最优可达到0.96 TECu,相对精度最优达到95.4%,精度较EMD-ERNN模型及单一ERNN模型有显著提高。