20世纪北大西洋温盐环流的年代际变化试评估

根据相对丰富的大气器测资料,综合前人对有限的海洋资料的诊断分析,从北大西洋涛动(NAO)变率、表层海温(SST)变率、格陵兰海和拉布拉多海的深对流活动长期变化等不同角度,对20世纪大洋温盐环流(Thermohaline Circulation,THC)变率进行了试评估.结果表明:(1)19世纪末以来,大西洋温盐环流的变化可分为4个时期:1900年以前的一段时期,THC较强;1904年到1930年,THC较弱;1931年到1972年,THC较强;1973年至1995年,THC较弱,目前则又有所增强.(2)与THC的变化相联系,大西洋主要气候要素的变化,相互间存在着某种协调关系,THC强,NAO弱,北大西洋北部SST升高,格陵兰海的对流活动增强,拉布拉多海的对流活动则减弱.     

地幔对流研究的一些新进展

地震学，地球动力学研究倾向于全地幔对流模型；地球化学研究则支持分层地幔对流。无论是简单的全地幔对流模型或分层地幔对流模型，都不能完全解释全部观测事实，为了协调二者的矛盾，人们提出了一些其它混合类模型，其中最有影响的是最近的拉瓦灯（Lava lamp)模型，这类模型目前尚缺乏有力的直接观测支持，因此，还需要随着高精度观测资料的积累和综合分析的深入，进一步完善和改进。     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987114000905

Although there has been significant progress in the seismic imaging of mantle heterogeneity,the outstanding issue that remains to be resolved is the unknown distribution of mantle temperature anomalies in the distant geological past that give rise to the present-day anomalies inferred by global tomography models.To address this question,we present 3-D convection models in compressible and self-gravitating mantle initialised by different hypothetical temperature patterns.A notable feature of our forward convection modelling is the use of self-consistent coupling of the motion of surface tectonic plates to the underlying mantle flow,without imposing prescribed surface velocities(i.e.,plate-like boundary condition).As an approximation for the surface mechanical conditions before plate tectonics began to operate we employ the no-slip(rigid) boundary condition.A rigid boundary condition demonstrates that the initial thermally-dominated structure is preserved,and its geographical location is fixed during the evolution of mantle flow.Considering the impact of different assumed surface boundary conditions(rigid and plate-like) on the evolution of thermal heterogeneity in the mantle we suggest that the intrinsic buoyancy of seven superplumes is most-likely resolved in the tomographic images of present-day mantle thermal structure.Our convection simulations with a plate-like boundary condition reveal that the evolution of an initial cold anomaly beneath the Java-Indonesian trench system yields a long-term,stable pattern of thermal heterogeneity in the lowermost mantle that resembles the presentday Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces(LLSVPs),especially below the Pacific.The evolution of subduction zones may be,however,influenced by the mantle-wide flow driven by deeply-rooted and longlived superplumes since Archean times.These convection models also detect the intrinsic buoyancy of the Perm Anomaly that has been identified as a unique slow feature distinct from the two principal LLSVPs.We find there is no need for dense chemical ’piles’ in the lower mantle to generate a stable distribution of temperature anomalies that are correlated to the LLSVPs and the Perm Anomaly.Our tomography-based convection simulations also demonstrate that intraplate volcanism in the south-east Pacific may be interpreted in terms of shallow small-scale convection triggered by a superplume beneath the East Pacific Rise.     

河南省强对流天气诊断分析预报系统

强对流预报是天气预报的难点,为了提高预报强对流、特别是预报区域性强对流天气的预报能力,应用河南省1995—2004年的气象观测资料作分析样本,并计算多个大气动力和热力学参数。经过统计分析、诊断分析,选择预报能力强、指示性好的大气动力或热力学参数作为强对流天气的预报因子,采用加权集成建立预报方程。应用计算机技术自动实现从数据采集、物理参数计算、预报因子临界值判别、诊断预报方程运算,到以MICAPS图形方式输出预报结果,建立了河南省区域强对流天气预报系统。该系统为预报员提供了一种科学客观的参考依据,在近两年的业务运行中取得了比较理想的预报效果,提升了河南省强对流天气的预报能力。     

木卫二尾迹的数值模拟

木卫二在木星磁层中运动,与快速共转的木星磁场相互作用形成木星极光中木卫二的尾迹,此尾迹反映了连续扰动的磁通量管对木星电离层电流注入的过程.本文应用细丝理论对此过程进行数值模拟,未扰动的上游磁通量管经过大约720 s的时间与木卫二作用形成角度约为4°且相对于木卫二静止的拉伸磁通量管,随后在磁张力的作用下加速运动.在随后大约2160 s的加速时间内,磁通量管的速度逐渐与背景磁力线接近,向木星电离层注入的电流也由9×105A逐渐衰减至0.以1/e初始电流处认为是可观测的木卫二尾迹限度,则木卫二的尾迹仅大约有一至两个经度,这与哈勃望远镜观测到的木卫二尾迹大小大致相同.木卫二尾迹与木卫一尾迹相比,输送的能量约为2.3×1013J,仅有木卫一的1/10,导致尾迹长度远小于木卫一的尾迹长度.此外,模拟过程中发现木卫二下游的压力槽对磁通量管运动的影响很小,可以忽略.     

Magmatic effects of the lunar late heavy bombardment

Large volumes of mare basalts are present on the surface of the moon, located preferentially in large impact basins. Mechanisms relating impact basins and mare basalt eruptions have previously been suggested: lunar impacts removed low-density material that may have inhibited eruption, and created cracks for fluid flow [Icarus 139 (1999) 246], and lunar basins have long been described as catchments for magma (e.g., [Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 18 (1980) 107] and references therein). We present a new model for melt creation under near side lunar basins that is triggered by the impacts themselves. Magma can be produced in two stages. First, crater excavation depressurizes underlying material such that it may melt in-situ. Second, the cratered lithosphere rises isostatically, warping isotherms at the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary which may initiate convection, in which adiabatic melting can occur. The first stage produces by far the largest volume of melt, but convective melting can continue for up to 350 Ma. We propose that giant impacts account for a large portion of the volume and longevity of mare basalt volcanism, as well as for several compositional groups, including high alumina, high titanium, KREEP-rich, and picritic magmas.     

五矩二流太阳风等离子体特性的数值研究

本文数值求解了各向同性二流太阳风的五矩方程组,得出了1 Rs—2AU区域内太阳风密度、速度、电子和质子温度、它们的热流通量密度q以及非麦克斯韦分布尾部粒子过剩量ξ随日心距离的变化关系.文中比较了二流太阳风五矩模型、四矩模型（ξ=0）和低阶矩模型（不包括q和ξ二个矩方程）的等离子体特性,着重讨论了量ξ对质子温度及其热流通量的影响.结果表明,包括言的五矩方程可改善Te/Tp和qe/qp的计算值与观测值的符合程度.     

浙江盛夏一次强对流天气的特征及其成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、区域自动站加密观测资料、GFS 0.5°×0.5°逐6 h分析场数据,以及多普勒雷达、风廓线、微波辐射计探测资料,对2014年7月26日浙江盛夏一次强对流天气过程的特征及其成因进行了诊断分析,结果表明:此次过程发生在副热带高压边缘,由于高空槽东移过程中带来了弱冷空气的渗透,并有大量不稳定能量积聚,形成了午后"上干冷、下暖湿"这样有利于强对流发生的不稳定层结条件和环境背景场。当低层925 hPa的中尺度辐合线和对流层中层700 hPa的垂直上升运动区相重合时,中尺度辐合线附近在未来6 h内产生了强对流,这对强对流的发生发展具有一定的预报指示意义。宁波中尺度辐合线是由偏南风和东北风辐合而成,同时受沿海和喇叭口地形影响,该辐合线早已存在,之后触发了宁波地区的强对流天气。杭州中尺度辐合线是由于宁波雷暴的地面出流增强了偏东风气流,从而加强了偏东风与环境东北风的辐合,导致了杭州中尺度辐合线的形成,随后在辐合线附近出现了剧烈的对流天气。     

Convection in rotating annular channels heated from below. Part 2. Transitions from steady flow to turbulence

We report the results of fully three-dimensional numerical simulations of nonlinear convection in a Boussinesq fluid in an annular channel rotating about a vertical axis with lateral no-slip or stress-free sidewalls, stress-free top and bottom, uniformly heated from below, a problem first studied by Davies-Jones and Gilman (1971 Davies-Jones, RP and Gilman, PA. 1971. Convection in a rotating annulus uniformly heated from below.. J. Fluid Mech., 46: 65–81.  [Google Scholar]) and Gilman (1973 Gilman, PA. 1973. Convection in a rotating annulus uniformly heated from below. Part 2. Nonlinear results. J. Fluid Mech., 57: 381–400.  [Google Scholar]). A substantial range of the Rayleigh number R (R_c≤R≤O(100 R_c)), where R_c denotes the critical value at the onset of convection) is considered. It is found that the wall-localized convection mode, unaffected by the velocity boundary condition imposed on the sidewalls, is nonlinearly robust. Both directions of travelling waves, one propagating against the sense of rotation near the outer sidewall and the other propagating in the same sense as the rotation in the vicinity of the inner sidewall, are always present in the nonlinear solutions. In contrast to nonlinear convection in a rotating Bénard layer, neither convection rolls nor the Küpper–Lortz instability can exist in a rotating annular channel because of the effect of the sidewalls. It is the nonlinear interaction between the wall-localized modes and the internal mode that plays an essential role in determining the nonlinear properties of convection in a rotating annular channel. Our studies reveal systematically the various nonlinear phenomena, from steady travelling waves trapped in the vicinities of the sidewalls to convective turbulence exhibiting columnar structure.     

2017年8月大气环流和天气分析

2017年8月北半球500 hPa极涡呈单极型分布,强度强于常年同期;亚欧洲大陆中高纬为多波动;西北太平洋副热带高压位置偏西,强度接近常年略偏强。8月全国平均降水量126.6 mm,较常年同期（105.3 mm）偏多20%;全国平均气温为21.4℃,较常年同期（20.8℃）偏高0.6℃。月内共出现了8次主要的区域性强降水过程,多站日降水量超历史同期极值。8月共有5个台风在西北太平洋和南海海域活动,其中1713号台风天鸽、1714号台风帕卡4天内先后登陆珠三角。月内,我国南方地区出现大范围持续高温天气,江淮、江汉等地出现阶段性伏旱。