Application of linear and nonlinear techniques in river flow forecasting in the Kilombero River basin,Tanzania / Application de techniques linéaires et non-linéaires à la prévision des débits dans le bassin de la Rivière Kilombero,en Tanzanie

Abstract

Modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation process and routing of river flows in the Kilombero River basin and its five sub-catchments within the Rufiji River basin in Tanzania was undertaken using three system (black-box) models—a simple linear model, a linear perturbation model and a linear varying gain factor model—in their linear transfer function forms. A lumped conceptual model—the soil moisture accounting and routing model—was also applied to the sub-catchments and the basin. The HEC-HMS model, which is a distributed model, was applied only to the entire Kilombero River basin. River discharge, rainfall and potential evaporation data were used as inputs to the appropriate models and it was observed that sometimes the system models performed better than complex hydrological models, especially in large catchments, illustrating the usefulness of using simple black-box models in datascarce situations.     

Ages of sediment-hosted Himalayan Pb–Zn–Cu–Ag polymetallic deposits in the Lanping basin,China: Re–Os geochronology of molybdenite and Sm–Nd dating of calcite

The Lanping basin is a significant Pb–Zn–Cu–Ag mineralization belt of the Sanjiang Tethyan metallogenic province in China. Over 100 thrust-controlled, sediment-hosted, Himalayan base metal deposits have been discovered in this basin, including the largest sandstone-hosted Pb–Zn deposit in the world (Jinding), and several Cu ± Ag ± Co deposits (Baiyangping, Baiyangchang and Jinman). These deposits, with total reserves of over 16.0 Mt Pb + Zn, 0.6 Mt Cu, and 7000 t Ag, are mainly hosted in Meso-Cenozoic mottled clastic rocks, and strictly controlled by two Cenozoic thrust systems developed in the western and eastern segments of the Lanping basin.To define the metallogenic history of the study area, we dated nine calcite samples associated with copper sulfides from the Jinman Cu deposit by the Sm–Nd method and five molybdenite samples from the Liancheng Cu–Mo deposit by the Re–Os method. The calcite Sm–Nd age for the Jinman deposit (58 ± 5 Ma) and the molybdenite Re–Os age for the Liancheng deposit (48 ± 2 Ma), together with previously published chronological data, demonstrate (1) the Cu–Ag mineralization in the western Lanping basin mainly occurred in three episodes (i.e., ∼56–54, 51–48, and 31–29 Ma), corresponding to the main- and late-collisional stages of the Indo–Asian orogeny; and (2) the Pb–Zn–Ag (±Cu) mineralization in the eastern Lanping basin lacked precise and direct dating, however, the apatite fission track ages of several representative deposits (21 ± 4 Ma to 32 ± 5 Ma) may offer some constraints on the mineralization age.     

Application of an improved semi-Lagrangian procedure to fully-nonlinear simulation of sloshing in non-wall-sided tanks

The semi-Lagrangian procedure is widely used for updating the fully-nonlinear free surface in the time domain. However, this procedure is only available to cases when the body surface is vertical near the waterline. Present study introduces an improved semi-Lagrangian procedure which removes this ‘vertical-wall’ limitation. Coupling with the boundary element method, the improved semi-Lagrangian procedure is applied to the simulation of fully-nonlinear sloshing waves in non-wall-sided tanks. From the result comparison with the open source CFD software OpenFOAM, it is confirmed that this numerical scheme could guarantee a sufficient accuracy. Further series studies on 2D and 3D fully-nonlinear sloshing waves in wedged tanks are performed. Featured phenomena are observed which are distinct from those in wall-sided tanks.     

Diagenetic evolution of the upper Cretaceous limestone and sandstone exhumed reservoirs in the western Basque–Cantabrian Basin,North Spain

The Basque–Cantabrian Basin (NE Spain) has been considered one of the most interesting areas for hydrocarbon exploration in the Iberian Peninsula since the 60th to 70th of last century. This basin is characterized by the presence of numerous outcrops of tar sands closely associated with fractures and Triassic diapirs. The aims of this work is to establish the diagenetic evolution of the Upper Cretaceous reservoir rocks with special emphasis in the emplacement of oil and their impact on reservoir quality. The studied rocks are constituted of carbonates and sandstones that contain massive quantities of bitumen filling vugs and fractures.Petrographic results indicate that the carbonate rocks from Maestu outcrops are bioclastic grainstones and wackestones, whereas the tar sandstones from Atauri and Loza outcrops are dominated by quartzarenites and subordinated subarkoses. The paragenetic sequence of the main diagenetic phases and processes include, pyrite, bladed and drusy calcite cement, calcite overgrowths, silicification of bioclasts and microcrystalline rhombic dolomite cement, and first stage of oil emplacement, blocky calcite cement, coarse crystalline calcite cement, calcitized dolomite, calcite veins, saddle dolomite and stylolites filled by the second phase of oil entrance. Together with the above mentioned diagenetic alterations, the arenites are affected by early kaolinitization of feldspars and the scarce formation of clay rim and epimatrix of illite. All sandstones and dolomitized carbonate rocks show high intercrystalline and intergranular porosity which is full by biodegraded hydrocarbons (solid bitumen). The biodegradation affects alkanes, isoprenoids and partially hopanes and steranes saturated hydrocarbons. Aromatics hydrocarbons, like naphthalenes, phenanthrenes, dibenzothiophenes and triaromatics are also affected by biodegradation. Results indicate that the first HC emplacement corresponds to early stage of calcite and dolomite cementation, and the second and more important emplacement is related to fracturation processes resulting in the formation of excellent reservoirs.     

Innovation for sustainable energy from a pro-poor perspective

The development and transfer of clean energy technologies to achieve universal energy access is challenging due to the inherent complexities of the energy sector, and the energy governance and financial systems in developing economies. Innovation is an essential part of successfully addressing these difficulties. Duplicating the energy infrastructure models of developed countries will not be sufficient to meet the needs of poor consumers. To the extent that innovation can accelerate energy access, it is important to understand the specific types of innovations that are necessary and how they might be facilitated. The general features of existing international clean energy innovation systems, which are predominantly driven by the markets and emissions reduction mechanisms of developed and rapidly growing emerging economies, are reviewed and the alignment of these systems to the innovation processes required to extend energy access globally is evaluated. Drawing on the innovation policy literature, the attributes of effective international and domestic energy innovation systems that are pro-poor and the associated policy approaches are identified.     

Scientists’ framing of the ocean science–policy interface

Scientists’ ideas, beliefs, and discourses form the frames that shape their choices about which research to pursue, their approaches to collaboration and communicating results, and how they evaluate research outputs and outcomes. To achieve ocean sustainability, there are increasing calls for new levels of engagement and collaboration between scientists and policy-makers; scientists’ willingness to engage depends on their current and evolving frames. Here, I present results about how scientists involved in diverse fields of ocean research perceived their role as scientists working at or near the ocean science–policy interface and how this related to their perceptions regarding ocean research priorities. The survey of 2187 physical, ecological and social scientists from 94 countries showed that scientists held different perspectives about their appropriate level of engagement at the ocean science–policy interface and the relative primacy of science versus politics in formulating ocean policy. Six clusters of scientists varied in their frames; three clusters accounted for 94% of the sample. Of 67 research questions identified from 22 research prioritization and horizon scanning exercises, the top eight were shared among all three clusters, showing consistency in research priorities across scientists with different framings of their role at the science–policy interface. Five focused on the mechanisms and effects of global change on oceans, two focused on data collection and management for long-term ocean monitoring, and one focused on the links between biodiversity and ecological function at different scales. The results from this survey demonstrated that scientists’ framings of the role of ocean science at the science–policy interface can be quantified in surveys, that framing varies among scientists, and that research priorities vary according to the framings.     

Dynamic early Holocene vegetation development on the Faroe Islands inferred from high-resolution plant macrofossil and pollen data

Vegetation dynamics during the earliest part of the Holocene (11,250-10,250 cal yr BP) have been reconstructed from a lacustrine sequence on Sandoy, the Faroe Islands, using detailed plant macrofossil and pollen evidence. The plant macrofossils suggest the initial vegetation was sparse herb and shrub tundra, with Salix herbacea and open-ground species, followed by the development of a denser and more species-rich arctic heathland after 11,150 cal yr BP. Despite high pollen values for Betula nana, macrofossils are rare. The bulk of the macrofossils recorded are S. herbacea and Empetrum leaves with numerous herb taxa and an abundance of Racomitrium moss. Conditions start to change around 10,800 cal yr BP, with increased catchment erosion and sediment delivery to the lake from ca. 10,600 cal yr BP, and a transition to alternating Cyperaceae and Poaceae communities between ca. 10,450 and 10,250 cal yr BP. This vegetation change, which has been recorded throughout the Faroes, has previously been interpreted as a retrogressive shift from woody shrubs to a herbaceous community. The detailed plant macrofossil data show the shift is the replacement of an Empetrum arctic heathland by grassland and moist sedge communities. These taxa dominate the modern landscape.     

Soil and vegetation seasonal changes in the grazing Andean Mountain grasslands

Andean grasslands ecosystems are fragile environments with rigorous climatologic conditions and low and variable food for the grazing. The Apolobamba area is located in the Bolivian Andean Mountains. Its high grasslands provide a natural habitat for wild and domestic camelids such as vicuna（Vicugna vicugna） and alpaca（Lama pacos）. The botanical diversity plays an essential role in maintaining vital ecosystem functions. The objectives of this research were to determine the seasonal changes in soil properties, to study the vegetation changes during the wet and dry seasons and the influence of soil properties and camelid densities on the vegetation in the Apolobamba grasslands. Four zones with different vicuna populations were selected to be studied. The following soil parameters were determined： total organic carbon, total nitrogen, available phosphorous, cation exchange capacity, exchangeable cations, pH and texture. The vegetation season changes were studied through botanical identification, above-ground biomass, plant cover and species richness. Results showed that some soil properties such as C/N ratio, CEC, silt and clay percentages kept stable against the seasonal changes. Generally, soil nutrients were relatively higher during the dry season in the surface and subsurface. The results did not point out the predominant vegetation growth during the wet season. The seasonal vegetation growth depended on each species. Thegood soil fertility corresponded to the highest plant cover. Soil fertility presented no influence on the above-ground biomass of the collected species. The negative influence of camelid grazing on soil properties could not be assessed. However, overgrazing could affect some plant species. Therefore, protection is needed in order to preserve the biodiversity in the Andean mountain grasslands.     

Uptake and recovery of soil nitrogen by bryophytes and vascular plants in an alpine meadow

Due to their particular physiology and life history traits, bryophytes are critical in regulating biogeochemical cycles and functions in alpine ecosystem. Hence, it is crucial to investigate their nutrient utilization strategies in comparison with vascular plants and understand their responses to the variation of growing season caused by climate change. Firstly, this study testified whether or not bryophytes can absorb nitrogen(N) directly from soil through spiking three chemical forms of 15N stable isotope tracer. Secondly, with stronger ability of carbohydrates assimilation and photosynthesis, it is supposed that N utilization efficiency of vascular plants is significantly higher than that of bryophytes. However, the recovery of soil N by bryophytes can still compete with vascular plants due to their greater phytomass. Thirdly, resource acquisition may be varied from the change of growing season, during which N pulse can be manipulated with 15N tracer addition at different time. Both of bryophytes and vascular plants contain more N in a longer growing season, and prefer inorganic over organic N. Bryophytes assimilate more NH4+ than NO3– and amino acid, which can be indicated from the greater shoot excess 15N of bryophytes. However, vascular plants prefer to absorb NO3– for their developed root systems and vascular tissue. Concerning the uptake of three forms N by bryophytes, there is significant difference between two manipulated lengths of growing season. Furthermore, the capacity of bryophytes to tolerate N-pollution may be lower than currently appreciated, which indicates the effect of climate change on asynchronous variation of soil N pools with plant requirements.     

Origin and anatomy of two different types of mass–transport complexes: A 3D seismic case study from the northern South China Sea margin

Integration of 2D and 3D seismic data from the Qiongdongnan Basin along the northwestern South China Sea margin has enabled the seismic stratigraphy, seismic geomorphology and emplacement mechanisms of eight separate, previously undocumented, mass–transport complexes (MTCs) to be characterized. These eight MTCs can be grouped into two types:(1) Localized detached MTCs, which are confined to submarine canyons and cover hundreds of km², consist of a few tens of km³ remobilized sediments and show long striations at their base. They resulted from small-scale mass-wasting processes induced by regional tectonic events and gravitational instabilities on canyon margins.(2) Regional attached MTCs, which occur within semi-confined or unconfined settings and are distributed roughly perpendicular to the strike of the regional slope. Attached MTCs occupy hundreds to thousands of km² and are composed of tens to hundreds of km³ of remobilized sediments. They contain headwall escarpments, translated blocks, remnant blocks, pressure ridges, and basal striations and cat-claw grooves. They were created by large-scale mass-wasting processes triggered by high sedimentation rates, slope oversteepening by shelf-edge deltas, and seismicity.Our results show that MTCs may act as both lateral and top seals for underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs and could create MTC-related stratigraphic traps that represent potential drilling targets on continental margins, helping to identify MTC-related hydrocarbon traps.