Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

Structural elements of the Makran region, Oman sea and their potential relevance to tsunamigenisis

The character of convergence along the Arabian–Iranian plate boundary changes radically eastward from the Zagros ranges to the Makran region. This appears to be due to collision of continental crust in the west, in contrast to subduction of oceanic crust in the east. The Makran subduction zone with a length of about 900 km display progressively older and highly deformed sedimentary units northward from the coast, together with an increase in elevation of the ranges. North of the Makran ranges are large subsiding basins, flanked to the north by active volcanoes. Based on 2D seismic reflection data obtained in this study, the main structural provinces and elements in the Gulf of Oman include: (i) the structural elements on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate and, (ii) the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex. Based on detailed analysis of these data on the northeastern part of the Arabian Plate five structural provinces and elements—the Musendam High, the Musendam Peneplain, the Musendam Slope, the Dibba Zone, and the Abyssal Plain have been identified. Further, the Offshore Makran Accretionary Complex shown is to consist Accretionary Prism and the For-Arc Basin, while the Accretionary Prism has been subdivided into the Accretionary Wedge and the Accreted/Colored Mélange. Lastly, it is important to note that the Makran subduction zone lacks the trench. The identification of these structural elements should help in better understanding the seismicity of the Makran region in general and the subduction zone in particular. The 1945 magnitude 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of the Makran and some other historical events are illustrative of the coastal region’s vulnerability to future tsunami in the area, and such data should be of value to the developing Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System.     

Usefulness of geological,mineralogical, chemical and chemometric analytical techniques in exploitation and profitability studies of iron mines and their associated elements

Due to the high number of variables involved in mine profitability studies, it is often very difficult to establish connections among them in order to provide a blend of market saleable quality products. In this sense, analytical chemistry together with chemometry are essential and indispensable disciplines to tackle these studies. The aim of this work was to demonstrate the utility of these disciplines to carry out optimization studies of iron mines. For this purpose, one of the most important iron mines of the Iberian Peninsula was chosen, sited in the mountain range of Sierra Menera, near the location of Ojos Negros (Teruel, Spain). Geological, mineralogical and chemical composition of 148 samples was analyzed, corresponding to different depths of three drill holes (named TE1, TE2 and TE3). In particular, aspects concerning to chemical composition are very important, since the mean contents of certain elements, such as phosphorus, sodium and potassium, should be restricted to the established limits to prevent that companies can drive back the raw material if they do not fulfil the necessary requirements. On the other hand, the large number of analysed samples drove us to use a statistical processing of the data. Among other aspects, it provides a way to find possible connections among a high number of variables and classify samples into compositional groups sharing similar composition, in order to limit the mineralised area and to obtain enough information about the amount of those chemical elements associated to iron ores. Data obtained from all these analytical techniques were in good agreement and provide a methodology that can be of wide interest applied to different geological studies.     

Nonlinear Analysis of Local Site Effects on Seismic Ground Response in the Bam Earthquake

The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical (down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies.     

无机盐类对天然矿物低温催化混合酯生烃反应的影响

脂肪酸酯是一类重要的生烃母质。选择了十四烷酸甲酯、十六烷酸甲酯和十八烷酸甲酯的混合酯为模型反应物,以方解石、白云石、伊利石、钙蒙脱石和黄铁矿为催化剂,分别考察了氯化钾、氯化镁、氯化钠、硫酸钠以及混合盐对天然矿物低温催化混合酯生烃反应的影响。结果表明,无机盐类对矿物催化下混合酯的生烃反应均有不同程度的影响,硫酸钠具有反催化作用,其它盐类具有正催化作用。且在各无机盐存在下,不同的矿物表现出不同的催化活性。     

基于Poulos弹性理论的被动桩改进算法

传统的Poulos弹性理论仅适合于均质土中土体侧向位移时桩的性状分析,无法考虑土的层状特性。通过引入层状地基中作用一水平集中力的广义Mindlin解和地面作用有竖向荷载时的应力和位移通解,对Poulos方法进行了改进,使之扩展到多层土中,还用于研究堆载条件下的被动桩变形和受力响应。算例分析表明,改进弹性理论要比Poulos方法更为严密、合理,提高了计算精度,应用范围也更广。     

斜向波对直立式防波堤堤头作用的试验研究

直立式防波堤堤头在斜向波浪作用下波浪力的计算在现行的技术规范中尚属空白。通过物理模型试验给出了堤头结构设计所需的波压分布图，指出了波浪入射方向和地形对堤头所受波浪力的贡献有时可以超过波高和波周期，根据现行规范按波浪正向入射计算堤头所受的波浪力偏于安全。     

Control strategies for the Clam Wave Energy Device

A promising wave energy device being currently investigated is the ‘clam’. The clam extracts energy by pumping air through a specially designed (Wells) turbine. Although operation of the Wells turbine does not require a rectified air flow, some additional control will be necessary to optimize the phase of the clam motion for good efficiencies. An examination of the equation of motion in the time domain suggests the possibility of phase control by mechanical, power take-off, or pneumatic latching. Latching can be shown to increase the efficiency of the device in the longer wavelengths of the wave spectrum, i.e. those of high incident wave power. Equivalently latching could be used to keep the device efficiency high while reducing its size, possibly resulting in cheaper power extraction.     

在各类天气系统影响下石臼港沿岸波浪场的分布

本文查阅了从１９７３－１９８５，１３年的历史资料，对石臼港沿岸波浪场进行了详细的分类、统计分析和计算，提出了各类较强天气系统影响石（即指石臼港）的极端区域，同时获得了石港沿岸各类天气系统影响下的波浪分布特点以及波高计算式，为保障石港的生产及港口建设为石港的波了提供了有益的分析数据和预报手段。     

大鹏湾潮流数值计算

应用分步杂交方法建立了大鹏湾边界潮流数值模型，并对其进行了模拟计算，重现了该区域潮波及潮流的分布规律，并根据实测资料对其进行了验证，从而可系统地了解这一海区的潮波系统及潮流场等海洋要素的分布情况。