震灾保险新制式的技术思路及其科学论证

对作者１９９２年提出的、建立在新观念、新思维基础上的一种独特震灾保险制式的技术思路和运行机制作了概括评述和解析论证。该制式中ＣＲＰＩＥ烈度当量折合费率模式与ＤＩＡＭ机制（延时承保机制）的联袂运行，可以圆满解决国内外震灾保险所面临的主要科学难题     

都江堰震后土地利用/覆被变化信息提取方法研究

快速和精确评估"5·12"汶川地震后的土地利用/覆被变化对科学减灾、灾后重建及生态环境恢复具有重要意义。常规方法从遥感图像上提取土地利用/覆被变化信息时,多以研究区整体为处理对象,直接对全图像进行分类提取,容易忽略地形地貌和地质构造等背景因素对分类结果的影响。本文以都江堰为试验区,根据地质构造展布特征及地形地貌发育形态将其分成平原区(Ⅰ区)、低山区(Ⅱ区)、中高山区(Ⅲ区)和高山区(Ⅳ区)。对Ⅰ区采用ISODATA方法进行非监督分类;对Ⅱ区和Ⅲ区分别采用最大似然(ML)分类法进行监督分类;对Ⅳ区采用人机交互解译方法进行分类。试验结果表明,基于地理地质环境的分块分类方法是高效、精确的。     

全球地震早期预警研究综述

近年来地震预警技术在国际上得到迅速的发展,并有成功预警且收到减灾实效的先例.本文系统介绍了地震早期预警的方法,包括波前探测、P波应用、现地预警和区域预警;介绍了地震早期预警系统在墨西哥、日本、土耳其、中国台湾和罗马尼亚等国家和地区的应用情况.还对地震预警中目前存在的问题和挑战以及远景进行了分析.     

Age determination of paleotsunami sediments around Lombok Island,Indonesia, and identification of their possible tsunamigenic earthquakes

Age determination of paleotsunami sediment from Lombok Island, Indonesia, and surrounding area has been carried out using the 210 Pb method in BATAN Jakarta. The basic theory of this method assumes that weathering of sediments, including paleotsunami sediments, will result in 210 Pb enrichment. The principle of this method is to calculate 210 Pb contents accumulation in a particular sedimentation interval from the surface to the deeper buried sediments. The results are then converted into age or depositional time in years ago unit. The dating results from the paleotsunami sediments of the Gawah Pudak(S8°46’2.91’’, E115°56’34.23’’) and Gili Trawangan areas(S8°21’1.38’’, E116°2’36.6’’) indicate the Gawah Pudak sediments were deposited 37 years ago(c. in 1977)and 22 years ago(c. in 1992). Three paleotsunami sediments from Gili Trawangan were deposited 149 years ago(c. in 1865), 117 years ago(c. in 1897) and 42 years ago(c. in 1972). These results are then compared to the available Indonesian earthquake catalogue data. This study reveals that paleotsunami sediments around Lombok Islands, from older to younger, were caused by the 1857 earthquake(epicentre in Bali Sea; M7; S8°00’09.45’’,E115°29’56.41’’), 1897 earthquake(epicentre in Flores Sea;M5.5; S6°47’59.62’’, E120°48’03.5’’ or Sulu Sea earthquake; M8.5; 70 km NW of Basilan Island), the 1975 earthquake(Nusa Tenggara; S10°6’16.61’’, E123°48’09.39’’), 1977 earthquake(in Waingapu, Sumba; M8.0;S11°5’39.34’’, E118°27’50.86’’) and the 1992 earthquake(Flores; M7.8; S8°28’52.11’’, E121°53’44.3’’).     

汶川地震触发大光包巨型滑坡基本特征及形成机理分析

大光包红洞子沟巨型滑坡是汶川地震触发的最大规模滑坡,其体积达7.42亿m3, 堰塞坝高达690m,是我国已知的最大规模地震滑坡和最高的滑坡堰塞坝,也是目前全世界已知的为数不多的几个方量在5亿m3以上的超大规模滑坡之一,其高达690m的滑坡堰塞坝为目前世界最高的滑坡坝。滑坡位于发震断层上盘,距发震断裂映秀北川断裂不足7km。震前斜坡为三面切割的孤立型山脊,相对高差达1500m;斜坡岩层走向与坡面近于垂直,层面延展性极好,构成滑动面形成的基础。调查和分析表明,斜坡的临空条件和贯通性好的灰岩层面是滑坡产生的基础;而高强度和长持时强震地面运动是导致滑坡产生的根本因素。滑坡产生的机理和过程可分为以下4个阶段:即坡体震裂、松弛和解体阶段、高速溃滑阶段、震动堆积阶段、二次抛射和碎屑流堆积阶段。失稳高速下滑的坡体,形成了沿主滑方向长4.2km,宽2.2km的堆积体,高速流动的碎屑流越过下游侧风波岩山脊,沿红洞子沟形成了长1km的碎屑流堆积区。     

Estimate of earthquake hazard in the Vrancea (Romania) region

A maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters maximum magnitudeM _max, annual activity rate , and theb value of the Gutenberg-Richter equation in the Vrancea (Romania) region. The applied procedure permits the use of mixed catalogs with incomplete historical as well as complete instrumental parts, the consideration of variable detection thresholds, and the incorporation of earthquake magnitude uncertainty.Our imput data, comprises 105 historical earthquakes which occurred between 984 and 1934, and a complete data file containing 1067 earthquakes which occurred during the period 1935–30 August, 1986. The complete part was divided into four subcatalogs according to different thresholds of completeness. Only subcrustal events were considered, and dependent events were removed.The obtained value (=0.65) is at the lower range of the previously reported results, but it appears concurrent with conceptual and observational facts. The same concerns inferred value of _max = 7.8 and activity rate _4.0 = 5.34.     

东莞市区震害预测与防御对策系统建设

在地震小区划、概率设定地震和广泛收集地震地质、建(构)筑物、生命线工程、地震次生灾害源、社会环境与经济人口数据等的基础上,对东莞市区89.3 km2范围工作区开展震害预测与防御对策研究,得到不同烈度下建(构)筑物、生命线工程的震害分析结果,以及地震次生灾害影响、人员伤亡与经济损失评估结果,对工作区及东莞市的抗震能力进行...     

Strong motion observations and recordings from the great Wenchuan Earthquake

The National Strong Motion Observation Network System （NSMONS） of China is briefly introduced in this paper. The NSMONS consists of permanent free-field stations, special observation arrays, mobile observatories and a network management system. During the Wenchuan Earthquake, over 1,400 components of acceleration records were obtained from 460 permanent free-field stations and three arrays for topographical effect and structural response observation in the network system from the main shock, and over 20,000 components of acceleration records from strong aftershocks occurred before August 1, 2008 were also obtained by permanent free-field stations of the NSMONS and 59 mobile instruments quickly deployed after the main shock. The strong motion recordings from the main shock and strong aftershocks are summarized in this paper. In the ground motion recordings, there are over 560 components with peak ground acceleration （PGA） over 10 Gal, the largest being 957.7 Gal. The largest PGA recorded during the aftershock exceeds 300 Gal.     

云南地区地震序列的P值和b值变化特征

从云南地区 1965年有台网记录以来的地震序列中选取 27个序列,根据大森-宇津地震频度衰减公式得到其中 23个余震序列的 P 值; 根据古登堡 -里克特地震频度与相应震级之间公式得到其中 24个余震序列的 b 值; 并给出 P 值和 b值的空间分布。 P 值的空间分布存在较明显区域性,而 b值的分布较复杂。     

卫星定位导航系统在地震应急救援中的应用

在对地震灾害特点综合分析的基础上,分析了地震应急响应与救援决策中的关键性问题。认为震害的规模、程度、空间分布和灾情发展趋势,以及快速获取灾情信息已成为整个地震应急响应和救援决策的关键;而对灾情空间分布及其不同灾情程度位置的确定是救援决策的先导与重要环节。卫星定位导航技术在地震应急搜救的信息快速获取、应急响应、救援决策、指挥、搜索与营救等救援行动的整个过程中,都将发挥其强大的功能。建议研发中国北斗灾害应急救援导航与指挥决策系统,包括地震灾情快速获取、快速判定和决策定位导航技术系统、地震救援指挥调度技术系统和应急救援物流定位导航技术系统建设;研发北斗灾害应急救援导航装备,包括自主定位导航幸存者搜索和营救设备研发和国内外巨灾救援专用定位与导航系统研发。