Multi-model projection of July�CAugust climate extreme changes over China under CO2 doubling. Part I: Precipitation

Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July–August over China in response to CO 2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models’ performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ～50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ～2–3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China, which follows the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.     

湖北省二叠纪梁山组沉积期岩相古地理特征与成煤规律

湖北省二叠纪梁山组沉积期是一次重要的成煤时期,由于煤层的不稳定性,其煤层层数、厚度、煤质等存在明显差异。通过岩性、煤层及古生物的研究对比,查明梁山组自下而上共含煤4层,煤层的形成与沉积特征受岩相古地理环境制约。就整个华南沉积盆地而言,从湖北到湖南,岩相古地理沉积模式为北高南低的古陆-潟湖-障壁岛-广海的沉积格局,湖北境内主要为古陆和海湾潟湖,位于湘鄂交界的江南古陆实为障壁岛,跨过障壁岛,便进入华南广海。湖北沉积区相单元主要为潟湖和潮坪,其中潮坪沼泽亚相为煤层形成的最佳环境,巴东麻沙煤田、松宜煤田和蒲圻煤田皆为该环境的沉积产物,其煤层的沉积特征与海侵机制和滞留时间密切相关。     

The period variation of DY Hercules

In this paper the researchers collected 28 times of maximum light including 4 times of those observed at the Xinglong station, the National Astronomical Observation of China between May 27, 2004 and June 1, 2004 and 1 time of maximum light from a 60 cm telescope on May 4, 1984. It found that the O-C point distribution was more completely compared than in any papers published before. The period is decreasing at the rate of about (1.4±0.1)×10⁻⁸ per year, which should not be caused by stellar evolution. It might be only part of a binary orbital light-time variation or other unknown reason. The time scale is longer than Pocs and Szeidl’s suggestion; the star needs more observations before we can be certain of the exact light-time variation.     

云南宣威羊场煤矿资源潜力评价

羊场煤矿经50年开采,资源近于枯竭。通过地质调查和预测,提供可靠依据,为危机矿山新增储量,延长矿山服务年限。     

A visco‐plastic constitutive model for granular soils modified according to non‐local and gradient approaches

An already available non‐associated elastic–viscoplastic constitutive model with anisotropic strain hardening is modified in order to describe both the constitutive parameter dependency on relative density and the spatio‐temporal evolution of strain localization. To achieve this latter goal, two distinct but similar approaches are introduced: one inspired by the gradient theory and one by the non‐local theory. A one‐dimensional case concerning a simple shear test for a non‐homogeneous infinitely long dense sand specimen is numerically discussed and a finite difference scheme is employed for this purpose. The results obtained by following the two different approaches are critically analysed and compared. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

唐朝末年以来广西柳州干湿变化及人类活动演变

中世纪暖期和小冰期是近2 000年气候变化中重要的气候事件,厘清其在低纬度地区干湿变化特征及其对古代农业发展及人口增长的影响,具有重要的意义。通过对广西柳州岩溶洞穴中一60 cm岩芯进行孢粉、炭屑分析发现,研究区的气候、稻作农业从唐末以来先后经历了6个阶段演化：1）875―940 a A.D.,C/P值及花粉记录指示：研究区气候整体偏干,水稻种植减少;2）940―1 050 a A.D.,C/P值及花粉记录指示：夏季风增强,水稻种植稍增长,人口增加;3）1 050―1 140 a A.D.,C/P值及花粉记录指示：夏季风减弱,稻作农业及人口较前期有所增长;4）1 140―1370 a A.D.,C/P值及莎草科花粉含量指示：研究区当时气候处于“中世纪暖期”温暖湿润期,稻作农业面积扩大,人口增加;5）1 370―1 900 a A.D.,C/P值及莎草科花粉含量指示：“小冰期”气候变干,水稻种植及人口逐渐减少;6）1 900―2 009 a A.D.气候变暖湿,水稻种植扩大,人口迅速增长。进一步对研究区气候事件与稻作农业及人口关系研究发现：历史时期气候事件与水稻种植、人口具有耦合关系,即中世纪暖期,气候暖湿,水稻种植扩大,人口增殖;小冰期,气候冷干,水稻种植萎缩,人口锐减。在非原地沉积时,莎草科和C/P 对水分反映敏感,可以用来指示气候干湿变化。     

Vorticity budget study on the seasonal upper circulation in the northern South China Sea from altimetry data and a numerical model

Based on the EOF analyses of Absolute Dynamic Topography satellite data,it is found that,in summer,the northern South China Sea(SCS) is dominated by an anticyclonic gyre whilst by a cyclonic one in winter.A connected single-layer and two-layer model is employed here to investigate the dynamic mechanism of the circulation in the northern SCS.Numerical experiments show that the nonlinear term,the pressure torque and the planetary vorticity advection play important roles in the circulation of the northern SCS,whilst the contribution by seasonal wind stress curl is local and limited.Only a small part of the Kuroshio water intrudes into the SCS,it then induces a positive vorticity band extending southwestward from the west of the Luzon Strait(LS) and a negative vorticity band along the 200 m isobath of the northern basin.The positive vorticity field induced by the local summer wind stress curl is weaker than that induced in winter in the northern SCS.Besides the Kuroshio intrusion and monsoon,the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are also important to the circulation in the northern SCS,and the induced vorticity field in summer is almost contrary to that in winter.The strength variations of these three key factors(Kuroshio,monsoon and the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage) determine the seasonal variations of the vorticity and eddy fields in the northern SCS.As for the water exchange via the LS,the Kuroshio intrusion brings about a net inflow into the SCS,and the monsoon has a less effect,whilst the water transports via the Sunda Shelf and the Sibutu Passage are the most important influencing factors,thus,the water exchange of the SCS with the Pacific via the LS changes dramatically from an outflow of the SCS in summer to an inflow into the SCS in winter.     

中国中世纪暖期温度年代际变化特征及成因分析

利用通用地球系统模式CESM的过去2000年气候模拟试验资料,在与历史气候重建资料、观测/再分析资料及其他模式模拟资料进行对比验证的基础上,分析了中国中世纪暖期（Medieval Warm Period,简称MWP）地表温度年代际变化特征并初步探讨了其成因。结果表明：在公元801~1250年的中国中世纪暖期期间,在年代际尺度上,中国地表温度EOF第一模态的空间分布为全区一致型,并且北部的变率大于南部,最大的变率中心位于中国东北部;EOF第二模态反映出研究区内南北反向的空间分布特征。40°N以北地区温度变化一致;40°N以南青藏高原-云贵高原-东南沿海地区与华北地区呈反相变化,最大的变率中心位于青藏高原东部。中世纪暖期地表温度EOF第一模态主要归因于太阳辐射的影响,火山活动也是影响因子之一;EOF第二模态主要受气候系统内部变率的影响,其他外强迫因子的影响较小。但是,温室气体、土地利用/覆盖两个外强迫因子对气候系统内部变率具有一定的调制作用。在中国,中世纪暖期太阳活动剧烈、火山活动较少,下垫面吸收更多的太阳短波辐射,地表净辐射通量增大,是中世纪暖期形成的主要原因。     

湘黔桂毗邻地区南华纪岩相古地理特征及地质意义

为了寻找连续完整且有研究价值的南华系剖面、推进南华系建系工作。本文依据对湘黔桂交界地区南华系主要剖面观察研究所获资料,以沉积岩相类型分析、分布特点为线索,划分出了12种沉积岩相类型,在此基础上反演南华纪各主要阶段古地理环境。得出:南华纪湘黔桂交界地区北西侧为古陆、南东侧为南华裂谷盆地,南华纪早晚两个冰期仅在古陆与盆地过渡的浅海地带,也就是现今的湘黔桂交界地区存在连续完整的沉积,连续完整的具研究价值的南华系剖面应在该区域寻找这一结论。