中国过去1500年典型暖期气候的模拟研究

利用地球系统模式CESM的过去1500年气候模拟试验结果,分析了中世纪暖期和现代暖期中国区域温度和降水变化特征的异同,并对形成原因进行了初步探讨.研究表明:中国的温度变化在中世纪暖期和现代暖期有着显著的区域差异,且年代际变化特征亦不尽相同.现代暖期的温度存在一个明显的年代际突变,这一突变是由温室气体含量的变化引起的,且现代暖期温度变化的空间格局受人为因子影响较大.中世纪暖期温度变化的空间格局主要受太阳辐射变化的影响,其次是土地利用/覆盖和火山活动.中国的降水变化在两个增暖期其时空格局较类似,其主要模态均体现为西部与东部反相,华南与华北反相.影响降水变化空间格局的因子较复杂,各外强迫因子的作用互补.     

千百年尺度祁连山地区干湿变化对暖期的响应

全球升温导致区域干湿格局转变,千年尺度中全新世暖期和百年尺度中世纪暖期可以为探究现代的气候趋势提供历史相似型。通过湖相沉积、冰芯、孢粉、树轮等古气候记录和PMIP3/CMIP5计划的古气候模型模拟数据对比分析,结果表明,祁连山地区中全新世暖期（7.2—6.0 ka BP）东亚夏季风强盛,降水较多,气候温暖湿润;中世纪暖期（950—1250 AD）与小冰期表现为暖干—冷湿气候机制。现代观测数据显示,祁连山地区呈现暖湿化,但现代的气候机制与自然因子主导下暖期的响应机制差异较大,表明了人类活动对自然发展下气候环境的影响。因此,自然因素与人类活动共同作用是准确预测研究区未来干湿格局的基础。     

海进体系域碳氧同位素地球化学响应——以黔西南地区三叠系为例

层序地层研究表明,位于扬子地块西南缘的黔西南地区在中三叠世末期(相当于Ladinian-Carnian期)出现了一次与全球同步的大规模海侵,形成了一个向上变深的碳酸盐岩台地淹没沉积层序。垄头组顶部和竹竿坡组分别是海进体系域(TST)的下、上部分。碳、氧同位素研究表明,垄头组顶部自下而上δ(18O)持续增大,而δ(13C)先逐渐增大,后在顶部界面附近快速下降,反映了垄头组顶部在暴露环境下氧化作用的结果。竹竿坡组δ(13C)自下而上逐渐增大,δ(18O)总体呈现逐渐减小趋势,反映了海平面变化特征。研究认为,海进体系域的δ(13C)和δ(18O)演化不但反映了海平面和沉积环境变化,同时对密集段(CS)、层序界面和古暴露面等也有很好的识别作用,在层序地层研究中具有重要的意义。     

Stained Glass and Climate Change: How are they Connected?

As expressions of regional architecture, sacred (Christian) Gothic structures often possess several adaptations to their prevailing climate regime. The late medieval (Gothic) period in northern Europe is also, according to the evidence presented here, marked by a transition from warm and sunny to cooler and cloudier conditions. It is within the context of this climate change that we consider one of the most important features in Gothic churches—interior daylighting—during the transitional period (the thirteenth to the end of the fifteenth centuries) between the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). This paper seeks to determine whether increasingly cloudy conditions over northern continental Europe, in part due to a shift in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, may have influenced the use of more white glass in the fourteenth century. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time an extensive daylighting dataset has been collected in medieval sacred interiors. From an analysis of these illuminance and luminance data collected in European churches and cathedrals, we find that high-translucency glazing is associated with limited lighting gains compared to full-colour programs under sunny conditions but substantial lighting improvements (up to an order of magnitude) for cloudy conditions. Additionally, we find that backlighting from direct sunlight produces significant obscuration of some of the iconographical glass when interiors are dominated by high-translucency glazing, further suggesting that these interiors are not ideal for sunny conditions.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Étant donné que les cathédrales gothiques (chrétiennes) sont des expressions de l'architecture régionale, plusieurs adaptations au climat de l’époque y ont souvent été apportées. À la fin du Moyen Âge (période du gothique), le climat chaud et ensoleillé en Europe du nord continentale a fait place à un climat plus froid et plus nuageux, d'après les preuves que nous présentons ici. C'est donc dans la perspective de ce changement climatique que nous nous penchons sur l'un des éléments les plus importants de l'architecture des églises gothique, l’éclairage naturel intérieur, durant la transition (du XIII^e siècle à la fin du XV^e siècle) entre la période chaude médiévale (MWP) et le petit âge glaciaire (LIA). Dans le présent article, nous voulons notamment évaluer si l'utilisation de plus en plus fréquente du vitrail blanc au XIV^e siècle s'expliquerait par les conditions plus nuageuses en Europe du nord continentale, attribuables en partie à un changement dans l'indice d‘oscillation nord-atlantique (NAO). À notre connaissance, c'est la première fois qu'une série élaborée de données a été recueillie sur l’éclairage à l'intérieur des cathédrales gothiques. L'analyse des données sur l’éclairement lumineux et la luminance lumineuse dans les églises et les cathédrales d'Europe nous permet de constater que le verre très translucide présente peu d'avantages comparativement au verre plein coloré dans des conditions ensoleillées, mais qu'il améliore considérablement l’éclairage dans des conditions nuageuses (jusqu’à 10 fois). De plus, nous constatons que l’éclairage en contre-jour produit par l'ensoleillement direct obscurcit une partie des pièces de verre ornées d'icônes lorsque le verre très translucide domine à l'intérieur, ce qui confirme une fois de plus qu'il ne s'agit pas d'un aménagement idéal pour les conditions ensoleillées.     

Light-Time Effect in the Eclipsing Binaries GO Cyg, GW Cep, AR Aur and V505 Sgr

Orbital period changes of the eclipsing binaries GO Cyg and GW Cep are explained by the light-time effect for the first time. New minima of the eclipsing binary AR Aur improve the predicted light-time orbit. The light-time orbit with the quadratic ephemeris of the binary matches the new observations of V505 Sgr better than the linear one. As the light-time effect fits in corresponding O − C diagrams of all four systems have been reaching extreme values, the observations of minima times in forthcoming years are highly desirable.     

A visco‐plastic constitutive model for granular soils modified according to non‐local and gradient approaches

An already available non‐associated elastic–viscoplastic constitutive model with anisotropic strain hardening is modified in order to describe both the constitutive parameter dependency on relative density and the spatio‐temporal evolution of strain localization. To achieve this latter goal, two distinct but similar approaches are introduced: one inspired by the gradient theory and one by the non‐local theory. A one‐dimensional case concerning a simple shear test for a non‐homogeneous infinitely long dense sand specimen is numerically discussed and a finite difference scheme is employed for this purpose. The results obtained by following the two different approaches are critically analysed and compared. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The period variation of DY Hercules

In this paper the researchers collected 28 times of maximum light including 4 times of those observed at the Xinglong station, the National Astronomical Observation of China between May 27, 2004 and June 1, 2004 and 1 time of maximum light from a 60 cm telescope on May 4, 1984. It found that the O-C point distribution was more completely compared than in any papers published before. The period is decreasing at the rate of about (1.4±0.1)×10⁻⁸ per year, which should not be caused by stellar evolution. It might be only part of a binary orbital light-time variation or other unknown reason. The time scale is longer than Pocs and Szeidl’s suggestion; the star needs more observations before we can be certain of the exact light-time variation.     

中国中世纪暖期气候变化的基本特征

对中世纪暖期（MWP）的时空分异和区域影响进行综合分析,关系到对近百年来全球气候变暖驱动力的正确认识,也有助于客观地解析20世纪气候变化增暖的历史地位.本研究对中国疆域内各个地区MWP的一些成果进行梳理和再思考,表明MWP在中国疆域内的存在是毋庸置疑的,但不同地区MWP表现出明显的时空差异.中国中东部地区在800—1300 AD存在明显温暖期,各种地质记录和文献记载都有较明显反映;虽然西北部MWP表现不很明显,但是众多石笋、湖泊沉积和风沙沉积也记录了500—1500 AD间呈现温暖湿润的气候特征;青藏高原各地MWP的表现差异明显,其中800—1100 AD暖期是高原东北部最暖的时期,而南部和西部最暖期分别出现于1150—1400 AD和1250—1500 AD.太阳辐射变化和火山活动可能是形成MWP的基本原因,而中国三大自然区下垫面条件的复杂多样性造成MWP发生过程和表现形式的时空分异.     

Effects of sediment grain size and channel slope on the stability of river bifurcations

Channel bifurcations can be found in river network systems from high gradient gravel-bed rivers to fine-grained low gradient deltas. In these systems, bifurcations often evolve asymmetrically such that one downstream channel silts up and the other deepens and, in most cases, they eventually avulse. Past analytical and numerical studies showed that symmetric bifurcations are unstable in high and low Shields stress conditions resulting in asymmetric bifurcations and avulsion, while they can be stable in the mid-Shields range, but this range is smaller for larger width-to-depth ratio. Here, using a one-dimensional (1D) numerical model, we show that effects of sediment grain size and of channel slope are much larger than expected for low-gradient systems when a sediment transport relation is used that separates between bedload and suspended load transport. We found that the range of Shields stress conditions with unstable symmetric bifurcations expanded for lower channel slopes and for finer sediment. In high sediment mobility, suspended load increasingly dominates the sediment transport, which increases the sediment transport nonlinearity and lowers the relative influence of the stabilizing transverse bedslope-driven flux. Contrary to previous works, we found another stable symmetric solution in high Shields stress, but this only occurs in the systems with small width-to-depth ratio. This indicates that suspended load-dominated bifurcations of lowland rivers are more likely to develop into highly asymmetric channels than previously thought. This explains the tendency of channel avulsion observed in many systems.     

Estimating bed material fluxes upstream and downstream of a controlled large bifurcation - the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River diversion

Bed material transport at river bifurcations is crucial for channel stability and downstream geomorphic dynamics. However, measurements of bed material transport at bifurcations of large alluvial rivers are difficult to make, and standard estimates based on the assumption of proportional partitioning of flow and bedload transport at bifurcations may be erroneous. In this study, we employed a combined approach based on observed topographic change (erosion/deposition) and bed material transport predicted from a one-dimensional model to investigate bed material fluxes near the engineering-controlled Mississippi-Atchafalaya River diversion, which is of great importance to sediment distribution and delivery to Louisiana's coast. Yang's (1973) sediment transport equation was utilized to estimate daily bed material loads upstream, downstream, and through the diversion during 2004–2013. Bathymetric changes in these channels were assessed with single beam data collected in 2004 and 2013. Results show that over the study period, 24% of the Mississippi River flow was diverted into the Atchafalaya River, while the rest remained in the mainstem Mississippi. Upstream of the diversion, the bed material yield was predicted to be 201 million metric tons (MT), of which approximately 35 MT (i.e., 17%) passed through the bifurcation channel to the Atchafalaya River. The findings from this study reveal that in the mainstem Mississippi, the percentage of bed material diversion (83%) is larger than the percentage of flow diversion (76%); Conversely, the diversion channel receives a disproportionate amount of flow (24%) relative to bed material supply (17%). Consequently, severe bed scouring occurred in the controlled Outflow Channel to the Atchafalaya River, while riverbed aggradation progressed in the mainstem Mississippi downstream of the diversion structures, implying reduced flow capacity and potential risk of a high backwater during megafloods. The study demonstrates that Yang's sediment transport equation provides plausible results of bed material fluxes for a highly complicated large river diversion, and that integration of the sediment transport equation with observed morphological changes in riverbed is a valuable approach to investigate sediment dynamics at controlled river bifurcations.