Numerical Simulation of CO2 Doubling Impacts on Regional Climate in Northwest China

A numerical study on CO2 doubling effects upon temperature and precipitation in NW China is conducted using an improved regional climate model, with the modeling data from a global climate model (Australian CSIRO R21L9) as the background. Results suggest that the doubling would lead to the rise of surface temperature in the project region, with the maximum occurring in southern Xinjiang Basin and eastern Qilian Mountains in contrast to a relatively smaller increase in northern Xinjiang and southern Shaanxi Provinces. On a seasonal basis the winter temperature warming is most pronounced while the autumn shows a relatively less signi cant rising trend. The study region experiences the greatest warming compared with other parts of the country. With CO2 content doubling, rainfall change varies from place to place in this region, with rainfall increase in the west, particularly in northern Xinjiang, in the vicinity of the Tianshan area, southwestern Qinghai, and Hexi area (west of the Yellow River of Gansu), as opposed to the eastern portion of NW China, where precipitation decreases. If CO2 concentration is doubled, most of the study region would receive more rainfall in spring, implying that spring drought would be alleviated while its eastern part would see varying-degree decreased precipitation in the other three seasons, especially in summer, suggesting that drought there would be intensified in summer and autumn, thereby exerting major influence on rain-fed agriculture there.     

BLLac天体ON231的光变周期研究

从大量文献中收集了BLLac天体ON231光学B波段约100年的观测数据,在此基础上分析了光变周期。用两种不同的方法（Jurkevich方法和小波分析法）分析周期光变,发现其光变曲线中存在13．6±1．5及26．1年的周期。     

Mohr–Coulomb MiniCLoE model Uniqueness and localization studies,links with normality rule

This paper is devoted to a parametric study of a plane Mohr–Coulomb CLoE model. As CLoE models are designed with a consistency condition, it is possible to define a normality condition and to study its consequences. The positiveness of the second order work which implies the uniqueness of the solution of a small strain boundary value problem is studied firstly. Then the localization criterion is also studied. It is proved that normality has consequences similar to those for classical elasto plastic models. However if induced anisotropy is introduced in the hypoplastic CLoE model, some conclusions are no longer true. Finally plane strain experimental data are used to identify the parameters of the model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of Asian summer monsoon to CO2 doubling

Based on simulations of the IPCC 20C3M and SRES A1B experiments in ten coupled models, the Asian summer mon-soon (ASM) response to CO2 doubling and the different responses among models are examined. Nine models show the similar results that the weakening of land-ocean thermal contrast caused by the CO2 doubling contributes to a weaker large-scale ASM circulation. Further analysis in this study also shows that the major ASM components,such as the Somali cross-equatorial flow,the low level India-South China Sea monsoon trough,and the upper level tropical easterly jet stream, weaken as CO2 doubles.However,the ASM rainfall increases as a result of the increased moisture from the warmer Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, and the enhanced northward moisture transport over the ASM region.For the response of enhanced northward moisture transport over South Asia, the positive contribution of moisture content increase in the Indian Ocean is dominant and the negative contribution of the weaker mon-soon circulation is secondary at 850 hPa,but both have positive contribution to the total moisture transport along the East China coast.The paradox of the weaker ASM circulation and the increasing precipitation in CO2 doubling is confirmed.It is found that strengthening of northward moisture transport could intensify the precipitation and atmospheric heat source over the north Arabian Sea and East China,and result in enhanced southwesterly at 850 hPa as global warming occurs.All ten models show significant enhanced southwesterly response over the north Arabian Sea,and six of them show enhanced southwesterly response along the East China coast.     

Orbital Period Changes and Long Term Luminosity Variation in Active Binary CG Cyg

UBV photometric observations of the active binary star CG Cygnus have been presented and analyzed to obtain absolute parameters of both components. Updated O-C diagram analysis by Kalimeris method yielded the values of 1.55× 10^-6 day and 1.4×10^-7day as the amplitudes of orbital period modulation, and P_mod1∼ 52.3 yr and P_mod2 ∼ 15.9 yr as the modulation periodicities. Finally, the consequences of period changes have been discussed on the basis of Applegate mechanism.     

唐古拉山中段开心岭群乌丽群的时代定义问题

根据最新区域地质调查的代表剖面,在分析研究下二叠统开心岭群、上二叠统乌丽群的岩性组合特征、沉积类型、古生物面貌的基础上,将二叠系建立5个岩石地层单位和相应的5个生物地层单位,代表栖霞期—长兴期地层层序与生物序列;区内生物性质属特提斯动物群和华夏植物群;青南乌丽与藏北双湖及昌都妥坝属同一含煤建造,成煤期为龙潭中期—长兴期。     

Bifurcation of Relative Equilibria in the Main Problem of Artificial Satellite Theory for a Prolate Body

In this paper, we study circular orbits of the J ₂ problem that are confined to constant-z planes. They correspond to fixed points of the dynamics in a meridian plane. It turns out that, in the case of a prolate body, such orbits can exist that are not equatorial and branch from the equatorial one through a saddle-center bifurcation. A closed-form parametrization of these branching solutions is given and the bifurcation is studied in detail. We show both theoretically and numerically that, close to the bifurcation point, quasi-periodic orbits are created, along with two families of reversible orbits that are homoclinic to each one of them.     

中国南方龙潭植物群的生态及乐平煤之沉积环境

作者经对海南岛红树林生态环境及红树林泥炭沉积环境的考察，综合研究了前人已有植物化石的解剖特征和红树林植物解剖特征后，认为龙潭植物群是以真政和种子蕨、楔叶纲、科达纲为主，生长在潮间带和潮上带，具有热带雨林和季雨林特征的一类特殊的类红树林植物群。指出二叠纪龙潭植物群中含有多种与现代红树林植物解剖特征类似的植物化石，其古生态环境应类似于海南岛现代红树林植物群的生态环境。依据二叠纪龙潭煤系中乐平煤的地球化学特征及煤层中所含的海相动物化石，佐证了乐平煤为泥炭坪红树林沼泽沉积环境，其煤层具有较高的生烃潜力。     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.