线性化物理过程对GRAPES 4DVAR同化的影响

线性化物理过程能够改善四维变分同化中极小化收敛的稳定性和增加极小化过程中对大气物理过程和动力更加精确的描述,它是四维变分同化中非常重要的一部分。通过在GRAPES全球模式中研究线性化物理过程,尤其是两个湿线性化物理过程,改善切线性模式预报精度,来提高GRAPES全球四维变分同化的分析和预报效果。线性化物理过程的开发首先需要简化原非线性化物理过程中的强非线性项,然后对线性化物理过程进行规约化,以抑制切线性扰动的异常增长。目前GRAEPS全球模式中的线性化物理过程主要包括次网格尺度地形参数化、垂直扩散、积云深对流和大尺度凝结。线性化物理过程预报精度的检验方法是通过选择合适大小的初始扰动（同化分析增量）,来比较非线性模式和切线性模式中的扰动演化的纬向平均误差。然后以绝热版本的切线性模式为基础,通过冬、夏两个个例试验来分别检验4个线性化物理过程的12 h预报效果。试验结果表明,通过添加次网格地形参数化和垂直扩散两个干线性化物理过程方案,可以有效抑制住绝热版本切线性模式低层扰动的异常增长,大幅度改善切线性模式预报效果。通过添加积云深对流和大尺度凝结两个湿线性化物理过程,可以在热带区域和中、高纬度地区提高切线性模式中湿变量和温度变量的近似精度,提高GRAPES全球四维变分同化的分析和预报效果。      

基于最优概率的中期延伸期过程累计降水量分级订正预报

采用ECMWF集合预报降水量资料和中国降水量观测资料,研发了基于最优概率的过程累计降水量分级订正预报(OPPF)技术,并在遵循总体技术思路的基础上设计出三种不同的OPPF计算方案(OPPF1、OPPF2、OPPF3),继而选用2015—2017年汛期(5—9月)中国91次区域性强降水过程进行回报试验和预报效果对比评估,结果表明:(1)在中期延伸期预报时效(96~360小时),对强降水和有无降水的预报效果,三种OPPF均明显优于集合平均(EMPF)和控制预报(CTPF);对中等以上或较强以上强度降水的预报效果,OPPF1和OPPF3明显优于CTPF、与EMPF基本接近。(2)三种OPPF相比,OPPF3的预报效果较OPPF1总体略胜一筹,两者均好于OPPF2。(3)预报效果存在明显的地域差异,南方地区强降水预报的TS评分明显大于北方地区,且OPPF3预报效果明显优于EMPF;在96~240小时预报时效,东北地区东部OPPF3强降水的预报效果也明显好于EMPF。      

Nutrient flux into an intense deep chlorophyll layer in a mode-water eddy

An intense deep chlorophyll layer in the Sargasso Sea was reported near the center of an anticyclonic mode-water eddy by McGillicuddy et al. [2007. Eddy–wind interactions stimulate extraordinary mid-ocean plankton blooms, Science, accepted]. The high chlorophyll was associated with anomalously high concentrations of diatoms and with a maximum in the vertical profile of ¹⁴C primary productivity. Here we report tracer measurements of the vertical advection and turbulent diffusion of deep-water nutrients into this chlorophyll layer. Tracer released in the chlorophyll layer revealed upward motion relative to isopycnal surfaces of about 0.4 m/d, due to solar heating and mixing. The density surfaces themselves shoaled by about 0.1 m/d. The upward flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, averaged over 36 days, was approximately 0.6 mmol/m²/d due to both upwelling and mixing. This flux is about 40% of the basin wide, annually averaged, nitrogen flux required to drive the annual new production in the Sargasso Sea, estimated from the oxygen cycle in the euphotic zone, the oxygen demand below the euphotic zone, and from the ³He excess in the mixed layer. The observed upwelling of the fluid was consistent with theoretical models [Dewar, W.K., Flierl, G.R., 1987. Some effects of wind on rings. Journal of Physical Oceanography 17, 1653–1667; Martin, A.P., Richards, K.J., 2001. Mechanisms for vertical nutrient transport within a North Atlantic mesoscale eddy. Deep-Sea Research II 48, 757–773] in which eddy surface currents cause spatial variations in surface stress. The diapycnal diffusivity at the base of the euphotic zone was 3.5±0.5×10⁻⁵ m²/s. Diapycnal mixing was probably enhanced over more typical values by the series of storms passing over the eddy during the experiment and may have been enhanced further by the trapping of near-inertial waves generated within the eddy.     

The effect of a topographic high on the morphological stability of a two-inlet bay system

The cross-sectional stability of two tidal inlets connecting the same back-barrier lagoon to the ocean is investigated. The condition for equilibrium is the cross-sectional area tidal prism relationship. In an earlier study [Van de Kreeke, J., 1990. Can multiple inlets be stable? Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 30: 261–273.], using the same equilibrium condition, it was concluded that where two inlets connect the same basin to the ocean ultimately one inlet will close. One of the major assumptions in that study was that the water level in the basin fluctuated uniformly. In hindsight this assumption might be too restrictive. For example, in the Wadden Sea the back barrier lagoon consists of a series of basins, rather than one single basin, separated by topographic highs. These topographic highs limit but do not exclude the exchange of water between the sub-basins. For this reason in the present study, a topographic high in the form of a weir was added, separating the back-barrier lagoon in two sub-basins. The water level in the sub-basins, rather than in the back-barrier as a whole, is assumed to fluctuate uniformly. For this schematization the hydrodynamic equations are solved using a finite difference method. The results, together with the equilibrium condition, yield the equilibrium flow curve for each of the inlets. The intersections of the two equilibrium flow curves represent combinations of cross-sectional areas for which both inlets are in equilibrium. The stability of the equilibriums was investigated using a non-linear stability analysis resulting in a flow diagram. Calculations were carried out for different inlet and weir characteristics. Sinussoidal tides were the same for both inlets. The results show that for relatively large wetted cross-sectional areas over the topographic high, approaching the situation of a single basin, there are no combinations of inlet cross-sectional areas for which both inlets are in a stable equilibrium. This supports the conclusion in the earlier study. For relatively small wetted cross-sectional areas over the topographic high there is one set of stable equilibriums. In that case the two-inlet bay system approaches that of two single-inlet bay systems.     

Post-depositional modification of NO-3 in snow layers at EastAntarctica and at the headwater of ürumqi River

Acidic species, such as Nitrate, in polar snow and firn layers are “reversibly” deposited, and are sufficiently volatile to undergo significant postdepositional exchange between snow/firn and the atmosphere. Through comparison of the snowpit and snowpack nitrate concentrations from central East Antarctica and the headwater of ürumqi River, we conclude that the nitrate peaks in the uppermost surface snow layers in central Antarctica are not related to an atmospheric signal and must account for post-depositional effects. Such effects, however, are not found in the surface snowpack nitrate profiles from the headwater of ürumqi River. Two reasons may account for the post-depositional difference. At first, nitrate in the polar snow and firn layers appears to be hydrated ion, which can be taken up by the atmosphere, while at the headwater of ürumqi River it seems mainly as mineral ion, which assembles the behavior of aerosol-derived species that are “irreversibly” deposited and do not undergo significant post-depositional exchange with the atmosphere. Secondly, the chemical features of the snow and ice on the Antarctica are mainly determined by wet deposition, to the contrary, dry deposition is more significant at the headwater of lUrumqi River than that on the East Antarctic Plateau.     

Softs of Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, the maritime Antarctic: Part I. Formation processes and pedogenetic particularities

Based on the data obtained from tens of the investigated soil profiles scattered over the Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, the maritime Antarctic, the soil-forming processes were discussed. It was concluded that on the weathering crusts resulted from various physical courses, the strong freeze-thaw action within regolith, significant organic matter accumulation, evident leaching and illuviation, as well as initial argillification dominated the formation and development of the soils on the Fildes Peninsula. Furthermore, this study indicated that the juvenility of genesis, poor profile-expression, variation in column thickness, etc. characterized the pedogenetic features of the soils of the Fildes Peninsula.     

It’s Time To Learn About Learning: Where Should the Environmental and Natural Resource Governance Field Go Next?

This Commentary reflects on the state of the scholarship on learning for environmental and natural resource policy and governance. How have we been learning about learning? We highlight theoretical and empirical advancements related to learning, as well as areas of divergence between learning theories and frameworks, and underdeveloped knowledge around processes and outcomes. To address these limitations and improve progress in both theory and practice, we offer recommendations for learning scholarship by focusing on how to collectively engage in ‘learning about learning’.     

中国物理海洋学研究70年:发展历程、学术成就概览

本文概略评述新中国成立70年来物理海洋学各分支研究领域的发展历程和若干学术成就。中国物理海洋学研究起步于海浪、潮汐、近海环流与水团,以及以风暴潮为主的海洋气象灾害的研究。随着国力的增强,研究领域不断拓展,涌现了大量具有广泛影响力的研究成果,其中包括:提出了被国际广泛采用的“普遍风浪谱”和“涌浪谱”,发展了第三代海浪数值模式;提出了“准调和分析方法”和“潮汐潮流永久预报”等潮汐潮流的分析和预报方法;发现并命名了“棉兰老潜流”,揭示了东海黑潮的多核结构及其多尺度变异机理等,系统描述了太平洋西边界流系;提出了印度尼西亚贯穿流的南海分支(或称南海贯穿流);不断完善了中国近海陆架环流系统,在南海环流、黑潮及其分支、台湾暖流、闽浙沿岸流、黄海冷水团环流、黄海暖流、渤海环流,以及陆架波方面均取得了深刻的认识;从大气桥和海洋桥两个方面对太平洋–印度洋–大西洋洋际相互作用进行了系统的总结;发展了浅海水团的研究方法,基本摸清了中国近海水团的分布和消长特征与机制,在大洋和极地水团分布及运动研究方面也做出了重要贡献;阐明了南海中尺度涡的宏观特征和生成机制,揭示了中尺度涡的三维结构,定量评估了其全球物质与能量输运能力;基本摸清了中国近海海洋锋的空间分布和季节变化特征,提出了地形、正压不稳定和斜压不稳定等锋面动力学机制;构建了“南海内波潜标观测网”,实现了对内波生成–演变–消亡全过程机理的系统认识;发展了湍流的剪切不稳定理论,提出了海流“边缘不稳定”的概念,开发了海洋湍流模式,提出了湍流混合参数化的新方法等;在海洋内部混合机制和能量来源方面取得了新的认识,并阐述了混合对海洋深层环流、营养物质输运等过程的影响;研发了全球浪–潮–流耦合模式,推出一系列海洋与气候模式;发展了可同化主要海洋观测数据的海洋数据同化系统和用于ENSO预报的耦合同化系统;建立了达到国际水准的非地转(水槽/水池)和地转(旋转平台)物理模 型实验平台;发展了ENSO预报的误差分析方法,建立了海洋和气候系统年代际变化的理论体系,揭示了中深层海洋对全球气候变化的响应;初步建成了中国近海海洋观测网;持续开展南北极调查研究;建立了台风、风暴潮、巨浪和海啸的业务化预报系统,为中国气象减灾提供保障;突破了国外的海洋技术封锁,研发了万米水深的深水水听器和海洋光学特性系列测量仪器;建立了溢油、危险化学品漂移扩散等预测模型,为伴随海洋资源开发所带来的风险事故的应急处理和预警预报提供科学支撑。文中引用的大量学术成果文献(每位第一作者优选不超过3篇)显示,经过70年的发展,中国物理海洋学研究培养了一支实力雄厚的科研队伍,这是最宝贵的成果。这支队伍必将成为中国物理海洋学研究攀登新高峰的主力军。     

70年来中国化学海洋学研究的主要进展

我国的海洋化学工作者通过70年来,特别是近30年来的化学海洋学研究,实现了我国与世界先进水平进入同步发展的快车道,其显著的特点是:(1)化学海洋学研究从元素地球化学分布系统转向了以揭示深层次海洋生物地球化学过程为核心的研究;(2)化学海洋学研究实现了多领域、多视点的综合交叉研究;(3)更加关注了人为影响与自然变化共同作用下的海洋生态环境变化研究,对近海和海岸带而言,更加注重从海陆统筹一体化角度探析化学物质的分布迁移特征。本文从生源要素的海洋生物地球化学过程、微/痕量元素与同位素的海洋化学研究、生物过程作用下的化学海洋学过程等角度,重点总结归纳和分析了30年来我国海洋化学研究的重要进展和发展状况,以期对化学海洋学的进一步研究提供借鉴和启迪。     

考虑冲刷影响的筒型基础竖向极限承载力研究

大直径宽浅式筒型基础,阻水宽度大,在位工作期间受波浪海流作用,其周围土体易被冲刷。为研究单侧地基土体受冲刷后筒型基础的竖向极限承载力变化,通过引进冲刷率的概念,采用有限元方法研究了不同冲刷率下筒型基础的竖向极限承载力;并基于Meyerhof理论建立了计算不同冲刷率下筒型基础竖向极限承载力的极限平衡方法。研究结果表明,随着冲刷率增大,筒型基础的极限承载力出现不同程度的下降,当冲刷率为0.8时,即筒型基础单侧土体冲刷深度达6.4 m时,筒型基础的竖向极限承载力折减率为3.28%。建立的极限平衡算法可准确计算冲刷条件下筒型基础的竖向极限承载力。